the2ndman

Investor looking for the dissenting opinion.

[the2ndman @the2ndmanbb]

@CaptainBruno20 @SteveWps RBC: "Q1 EPS estimate moves lower to $1.34 (from $1.52), below consensus $1.40, to reflect our assumption for lower truck pricing in Q1." they increased target and kept the rest of their est. the ~same though, just Q1/24

[the2ndman @the2ndmanbb]

@rochonpapi I think $EXPD checks a lot of those boxes as well

[the2ndman @the2ndmanbb]

@rochonpapi hahah I recently sold some csu to buy this 👀

[the2ndman @the2ndmanbb]

@rochonpapi But yeah, also agree that they shouldn’t sell mortgage piece and like the U.K. take… I haven’t given the much thought yet.

Thanks!

[the2ndman @the2ndmanbb]

@rochonpapi In any case, likely that they could get $125 mln for payments imo (lose $12.5 mln of EBITDA), which I think is a big step towards solving problem; if they do this I think DND is much less forced to divest other assets.

[the2ndman @the2ndmanbb]

@rochonpapi Also, imo, 7-8x would be pretty low for this type of asset... I agree with BMO at 10x. FWIW, I'd be a little worried that DND would actually say no at 7-8x and just try to solve debt some other way. just my two cents.

[the2ndman @the2ndmanbb]

@rochonpapi How confident are you with these EBITDA est? Any other sources that can help use support this/back into EBITDA

[the2ndman @the2ndmanbb]

@rochonpapi Agree w/ this take. However, I don't think TFSB generates that much EBITDA. I know BMO est. ~$50-$60 mln of EBITDA from TFSB, but they basically just took purchase price and assumed a post-synergies multiple ~inline with average (assuming some price increases...)

[54th Parallel @54thParallel]

1/

Canada Goose $GOOS

Lots of haters on FinTwit on the name but they bring a poor game. I just don't see it. Canada Goose is gaining market share globally and growing (see chart).

Would love to hear more bearish views please!

[the2ndman @the2ndmanbb]

$PM $MO $BTI

[the10thman @the10thmanbb]

(1/2) $PM deep dive out. As the cigarette business dies, a smoke-free portfolio rises from the ashes - that’s what investors seem excited about

[icemancapital @icemancapital]

(1/n) 3rd post out on $FLT today. It���s a fantastic payments success story. Ron Clarke, took this business from near bankruptcy to a successful IPO in 2010. Then compounded revenues at an 18% CAGR into 2022. Adj EPS grew at a 20% CAGR.

[the10thman @the10thmanbb]

$CSU Optimal Blue deal looks wild. If that $100mn of EBITDA (T12M to Feb) is maintained, that's a levered a-tax IRR of nearly 40%. Even if EBITDA fell 30% (and never recovered) I'd get a levered a-tax IRR of 23%. Dayummmmmm

[the10thman @the10thmanbb]

(1/n) First paid post out on $GOOS today (link in bio). It’s a remarkable CND success story. Dani Reiss (3rd gen founder) took this business from ~$3mn of rev in 2000 to $1.2bn last year. He did so with very little external capital thanks to very high ROIIC AND org reinvestment.

[the10thman @the10thmanbb]

(1/n) After ~4 yrs of publishing for free, I’ve decided to take The10thMan paid. I'll be publishing the first paid post tomorrow on Canada Goose $GOOS. If you're on the fence, I've enabled 7-day free trials.

[the2ndman @the2ndmanbb]

@sinstockpapi Are you sure that average Unity fee on transaction is $285? Is that $285 for seller and $285 for buyer, or does that $285 get split between buyer and seller?

[the2ndman @the2ndmanbb]

@sinstockpapi DND fee of $285 would be like 20-35% of legal fees, but 2-10% of total closing costs (province dependent) and closer to like 20 bps on a 140k down payment... agree, kind of irrelevant to end-customer.