TheSamurai

All trades must have stop loss. Do not fade the market. Do not add onto losers. Add onto winners. Ride the trend -- don’t guess the end. Learn to let go.

[TheSamurai @the_wisetrader]

I have seen people blowing up their accounts over and over again. It is important to understand that if you lose an X%of your capital, it requires Y% of profit/gain to recover your loss (X%). Table below, lose 50% (X%), required 100% (Y%)

[TheSamurai @the_wisetrader]

@TheAidenWagner Just subscribe to China AI models for personal projects. You save tons of monies.

[TheSamurai @the_wisetrader]

@jun_song Why not Mac M5 Ultra Studio?

[TheSamurai @the_wisetrader]

@PunkyCovfefe Because of the frugal mindset, we can all take early retirement.

[TheSamurai @the_wisetrader]

@v0xium Adapt and adopt to ride with the new wave or disappear. This new disruption is similar to industrial revolution. Survival of the fittest. Resistance is futile.

[TheSamurai @the_wisetrader]

@su35thunder2 Planning to visit China. Please share the places that I should visit for 3 weeks there. Thank you.

[TheSamurai @the_wisetrader]

@deepakdgy Do you backtest from 1995 to 2026 with SPY?

[TheSamurai @the_wisetrader]

@wey_how12640 https://t.co/nZG443iyX2

[TheSamurai @the_wisetrader]

@RHerman @aw_trades_ Not tradable, too few trades. I have tested with intraday period, and daily period. It has potential.

[TheSamurai @the_wisetrader]

@jaredpalmer I wonder if it is good to train on one stock with its historical data. It only has three choices: buy, sell, hold

[TheSamurai @the_wisetrader]

@yongfook We need to look at which industry is going to come out as winners when most of the companies are now able to vibe coding their own SaaS. It will not take a few weekends but in a few months to provide equivalent services.

[Jon Yongfook @yongfook]

Just had a long-term multi-year customer cancel their plan. They are also a SaaS company.

I pretty much just shrugged and figured, "makes sense, they probably vibe coded a replacement".

Don't target developers!

[TheSamurai @the_wisetrader]

@tmikov IMHO, at least we will see deduction of at least 50% of software jobs openings in 5 years. Most of the middle class families make a living in IT industry. It is very sad....☹️

[TheSamurai @the_wisetrader]

@hakimieiqbal @hqmank Does Jev needs a large sampling size of historical data to calculate the probabilities distribution to make proper decision which choice to choose?

[Diogo Almeida @CompleteSkeptic]

After co-inventing ChatGPT, I kept asking myself: why have superhuman chat models not led to AGI?

I’ve spent the last 2 years in stealth building a new way to train models (RLCD), and a new type of frontier AI model that we are releasing today: Jev

• 20-200x faster
• 40-400x cheaper (w/ output tokens free)
• Frontier composable intelligence optimized for decisions

AFAICT the shortest path to AI-based economic revolution

[TheSamurai @the_wisetrader]

@mdlahfir @Rahul_oog @typesafeai Jev is considered as SLM specifically trained on pre-existing LLM to specialize in probabilities?

[L2WTrades @L2WTrades]

I talked to 10+ full-time traders making $200k+ per year

asked them all the same question: "what's the biggest lie in trading?"

31 of them gave the same answer

it's the opposite of what every guru teaches

here's what they said:

THE QUESTION:
"what's one thing every beginner believes that's completely wrong?"

THE ANSWER (from 31 of 34):
"that you need to predict where price is going"

I thought they were fucking with me

"isn't that literally what trading is?"

TRADER 1 ($340k/year):
"I have no idea where price is going. ever. I react to what happens. prediction is for weather men and psychics."

TRADER 2 ($780k/year):
"my entire system is built on NOT knowing. I enter. if it works, I stay. if it doesn't, I leave. there's no prediction involved."

TRADER 3 ($210k/year):
"prediction is ego. reaction is money. I stopped trying to be right about direction 6 years ago. that's when I became profitable."

I pushed back:

"but you're entering trades. you must think price will go somewhere."

TRADER 4 ($420k/year):
"I think price MIGHT go somewhere. big difference. my edge isn't prediction accuracy. my edge is what I do when I'm wrong."

"explain that"

"when retail traders are wrong, they hope. when I'm wrong, I'm out instantly. when retail traders are right, they take profit. when I'm right, I add size."

"same entries as everyone else. opposite management."

THE FRAMEWORK:

these traders operate on what they called REACTIVE TRADING:

PREDICTIVE TRADING (what you do):
- analyze → predict → enter → hope → exit

REACTIVE TRADING (what they do):
- enter → observe → react → adjust → extract

"we're not fortune tellers. we're response specialists."

TRADER 5 ($290k/year):
"I enter trades expecting to be wrong. sounds insane but it removes all the pressure. if I expect to lose, I cut fast. if I happen to win, it's a bonus I maximize."

TRADER 6 ($510k/year):
"prediction creates attachment. I predicted UP so I NEED it to go up. now I'm holding a loser hoping. reaction creates detachment. I don't care which way. I just respond."

THE STATS:

asked them to estimate how often their "predictions" are right:

- average answer: 48-52%
- basically a coin flip

"so you're profitable with coin flip accuracy?"

"bro some of the best traders I know are right 42% of the time. it literally doesn't matter."

THE REFRAME:

TRADER 7 ($630k/year):
"stop asking 'where is price going.' start asking 'what will I do if price does X.'"

"the first question has no answer. the second question is entirely in your control."

"I have plans for every scenario. price up? plan. price down? plan. price sideways? plan. I don't need to predict because I've already decided my response."

HOW TO SWITCH:

step 1: delete the word "predict" from your vocabulary
step 2: before every trade, write: "if wrong, I will ___"
step 3: before every trade, write: "if right, I will ___"
step 4: execute those plans regardless of what you "think"

"thinking is for analysts. doing is for traders."

THE TRUTH:

the gurus sell prediction

"learn to read the market"
"spot reversals before they happen"
"know where price is going"

because prediction sounds VALUABLE

reaction sounds BORING

but boring makes money

every profitable trader I interviewed:
- doesn't try to predict
- expects to be wrong often
- has bulletproof reactions ready
- doesn't give a fuck about accuracy

every struggling trader:
- obsesses over prediction
- needs to be right
- has no plan for being wrong
- tracks win rate like it matters

stop predicting
start reacting

i drop my full trading system that generated over $300k in student results on my instagram (L2WTrades). Link in bio.

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

Several default assumptions I make in trading

The next trade will be a loser

Uncertainty in a daily trend usually is resolved in the direction of the weekly trend

Uncertainty in a weekly trend is usually resolved in the direction of the monthly trend

That I have absolutely no idea where any given market is going

[TheSamurai @the_wisetrader]

@guanmo_ai @rwayne AI generating binary directly will increase the execution speed by many times.

[TheSamurai @the_wisetrader]

@BluCheezFart @JedidiahBMorris Too many got killed because of big dream and neglect the risks.