TheConvexity

Quant Finance | AI Engineering
Hunting for asymmetric returns in a linear world.
Building The Convexity.
Scaling systems, not headcount.

👇 Read the edge:

[TheConvexity @TheConvexity]

[1/9] From multiple brokers to one unified portfolio dashboard in 30 minutes.
Positions sit across a few different places - brokers, a crypto exchange, the usual scatter. No single app showed me all of them in one view.
So I gave Claude screenshots from each. Here's the workflow.

[TheConvexity @TheConvexity]

Polymarket and Kalshi spent 7 years fighting CFTC for real-money permissions. Meta launches with points, then waits for the political tailwind to flip it to real money.

Same playbook as crypto sweepstakes.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

BREAKING: Meta is building its own prediction markets app to compete with Polymarket and Kalshi.

The app is internally called "Arena."

It would run separately from Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger.

Users would bet with points instead of real money, but Meta has not ruled out adding real money betting later.

Meta has run this playbook before.

In 2021, Mark Zuckerberg renamed the company from Facebook to Meta at the peak of metaverse hype.

Since then, its Reality Labs division has lost $83.5 billion building that vision, with Quest headset shipments still falling year over year.

[TheConvexity @TheConvexity]

@claudeai The 65% claim is the trade signal,

Anthropic is saying it solved the AI productivity proof point CFOs need to justify spend.

Excited to test it out!

[TheConvexity @TheConvexity]

@alc2022 Survivorship bias makes it look obvious.

Adding was a bet on conviction. Trimming was a bet on uncertainty.

[TheConvexity @TheConvexity]

@KobeissiLetter Capital rotation to Taiwan and South Korea is acctually semi AI trade ($NVDA supply chain with ETF wrapper) dressed as a country allocation.

TSMC is around 50% of TSWE, SK Hynix + Samsung ~30% of KOSPI

Real diversifer is South America

[TheConvexity @TheConvexity]

@StockMKTNewz Real price discovery starts when lockups roll off and the secondary supply hits.

[TheConvexity @TheConvexity]

@PolymarketMoney Today was the day $PLTR was on it's lowest value since 2025, guess not for long

[TheConvexity @TheConvexity]

The winner of quantum computing will allow patient investors to print generational money in 2027/2028, which one will you pick:
$QBTS $IONQ $RGTI

[Polymarket Money @PolymarketMoney]

BREAKING: President Trump signed two major executive orders aimed at strengthening U.S. leadership in quantum technologies.

[TheConvexity @TheConvexity]

@amitisinvesting PLTR's moat isn't software. It's becoming the protocol layer. Same playbook AWS ran on enterprise cloud 2010-2015.

$PLTR will be the biggest winner of AI optimalization

[TheConvexity @TheConvexity]

@jukan05 JPM's PT is probably the leading edge of AI-memory rotation broadening past HBM names.

[TheConvexity @TheConvexity]

@buccocapital How-to books were the highest-margin publishing segment.
LLMs collapse both legs: zero distribution cost + personalization no printed page can match.

I wonder how it will change throught the next years

[TheConvexity @TheConvexity]

@amitisinvesting Elon's projection is 2-3x more aggressive than the people paid to maximize the deal narrative.

Options open tomorrow: with 500M shares/day churning, IV opens absurdly high.

[TheConvexity @TheConvexity]

@aleabitoreddit water as AI infra thesis = right intuition, but the demand signal flows to cooling tech and power infrastructure, not water utilities.

[TheConvexity @TheConvexity]

@TheMacroPulse The S&P 500 isn't a US economy index anymore, it's an AI infrastructure index in disguise.

The "economy is strong" read is borrowed signal from a handful of AI-exposed names.
Passive investors think they own the market.

[TheConvexity @TheConvexity]

@amitisinvesting Iran was the visible risk.

AI capex math is the buried one.

[TheConvexity @TheConvexity]

@zerohedge Both trade the same way: headline pops on "imminent," fades on no-deal.

The alpha is fading the framing, not believing it.

[TheConvexity @TheConvexity]

@michaelsikand Not a rug. It's the structural mechanic of event-driven flows in a thin retail-dominated tape.

[TheConvexity @TheConvexity]

@aleabitoreddit $MELI is the cleanest LATAM AI-augmented fintech bet. The recent dip is capex-driven (logistics + payments infra), not thesis erosion.

Spending heavy now to lock the regional payments rail. The dip is the entry.

[TheConvexity @TheConvexity]

@ChairmansLedger Trimming back to thesis size isn't basis anchoring, it's rebalancing.

[TheConvexity @TheConvexity]

@Kalshi Same jailbreak technique works on OpenAI's GPT-5.5 — no export control there. Selective enforcement is the trade signal.

$AMZN exposure absorbs regulatory risk $MSFT doesn't.

[TheConvexity @TheConvexity]

@PolymarketMoney The list misses the broader pattern: Karpathy + Ross Nordeen (xAI) + multiple others all chose Anthropic in the same 30-day window.

Talent flow historically precedes lab dominance by 12-24 months.

Implication: $AMZN (Anthropic backer) AI exposure underpriced