I struggle to find any logical or moral reason why @tesla wouldn't offer a free FSD transfer to anyone with HW3.
If you're going to have to pay to upgrade the computer anyway, why not make the customer happy and help sell a new car at the same time??
I do not think this would be good if Tesla is forced to sell China business and give away the whole China market just so they could merge with SpaceX.
If the merger were to go through the way it seems right now based on speculations...
1. Tesla shareholders would have to agree to early merger right before Robotaxi scaling, not getting its value included in the stock price...
2. While buying inflated SpaceX shares in the process...
3. And getting rid of the whole China market for FSD, etc.
This is dumb. I prefer Tesla to remain separate from SpaceX if that is how things would work out.
pls do go. time to show some leadership.
robotaxi business has been rudderless for a while. 20 cars in Austin after one whole year of launching is concerning, if not pathetic.
pls also try out XPENG is VLA2 while you are at it. competitors are catching up, while $TSLA is idling.
pls do go. time to show some leadership.
robotaxi business has been rudderless for a while. 20 cars in Austin after one whole year of launching is concerning, if not pathetic.
pls also try out XPENG is VLA2 while you are at it. competitors are catching up, while $TSLA is idling.
@aelluswamy pls focus on growing unsupervised fleet instead. why it sits on 20 for a while?
this bigger geofenced area does nothing but to make the waiting time even worse than it is already!
look. the vision is inspiring, but we need delivery.
an inspiring vision is nothing but a laughing stoke if not delivered.
now we need @elonmusk to deliver on his promises on robotaxi, before he throws out more promises.
1. v14.3 is the last piece of unsupervised fsd
2. robotaxi for half of the US population by eoy 2025
3. unsupervised fsd FAR exceeds human driver safety by eoy 2025.
The list goes on. but let Elon and @Tesla_AI deliver on these 3, before I want to hear more inspiring visions.
@CernBasher@SexyBeast432854@CernBasher I’m losing respect to you as well. People lose respect to you for some good reasons. I’ve been a Tesla bull for 7 years, and I don’t agree with most of your argument. Tesla does not need SpaceX to scale Robotaxi and Optimus
@SawyerMerritt I used to trust what you said a lot until I realized that you are connected with Tesla/SpaceX in a way most readers don’t know. Maybe Tesla/SpaceX pays you directly or indirectly. But you acknowledged that you hold more SpaceX assets than Tesla, surprising
@CernBasher AV, FSD and Optimum are close to their prime time. As a 7+ TSLA investor, I want the merger to happen after they mature. They don’t heavily rely on SpaceX, and the merger won’t help with the maturity but mostly only shares the credits
@CernBasher@gregthaopenny1 FSD and Optimus are the biggest bets in the most recent years, and they don’t heavily rely on SpaceX. We want to wait until they mature before the merge. Cern, I respect what you say a lot, but in this case, I feel Tesla pays you to say what you are saying
This is a long write-up but worth the read for Tesla investors who are interested in the prospect of a Tesla / SpaceX merger. @smdcapital@DanBTC916
As a former big law M&A attorney, I have been thinking about this potential transaction for many months now, trying to figure out how it would work, what the timing would be, mechanics, structure, etc.
With the recent decline in TSLA stock and negative sentiment following last week’s call, many Tesla bulls (I won’t name names) are now working overtime to convince followers that a near-term merger following SpaceX’s IPO is the right path forward. Indeed, Elon seemed to be dropping some hints with his commentary about Terafab, particularly the inherent conflicts and the difficulty in parsing out rights and responsibilities between each company.
And I do think Elon has had this thought in the back of his mind for the past few years, seeing the combination of his companies under a single structure as inevitable. I also think, through his actions and inactions (delays, missed deadlines, moving goal posts, divisiveness, politics, lack of enthusiasm on quarterly calls, etc.), he has kept the TSLA share price suppressed with that ultimate goal in mind. Occam’s razor.
So here are the mechanics. SpaceX is expected to IPO at a $1.75-$2.0T valuation. It will have a dual-class share structure, where Elon retains the voting shares.
Tesla has a single class share structure where each share has both voting and economic interests.
For a near-term merger to be viable, Elon has to ensure SpaceX maintains or exceeds its IPO valuation, and Tesla valuation stays at or below current levels.
Why? It is almost guaranteed that SpaceX would be the surviving entity in a merger scenario, so Elon can maintain the dual-class share structure and thus, maintain majority voting control. It is not legally possible to implement this type of structure at Tesla post-IPO, so the only way to keep it is if SpaceX is the surviving entity. And in order to convince Tesla shareholders to give up their voting rights in exchange for non-voting, economic shares in SpaceX (which is how such deals are commonly structured), SpaceX will have to offer a premium to Tesla holders — precedent is in the range of 20-40%.
If Tesla is trading at a similar valuation to SpaceX, e.g., $2.0 trillion, and SpaceX has to pay a 20-40% premium to entice Tesla shareholders to approve the deal and give up their voting rights, then SpaceX shareholders would be diluted and are less likely to approve the transaction.
If SpaceX is trading at $2.0 trillion and TSLA at its current $1.4 trillion market cap ($375/share), SpaceX can offer a 40% premium ($2.0 trillion valuation, $525/share, top-end of precedent) and avoid dilution. TSLA shareholders would almost certainly approve such an offer in light of current sentiment and Elon’s recent guidance (or lack thereof).
Keeping the TSLA share price suppressed is the only way any near-term merger is viable in my opinion.
I understand why Elon wants to combine the companies. It would significantly simplify governance and streamline his workload. And I ultimately think a combination of the two companies in the future makes sense.
But the reality is, we have waited patiently for years now (with the stock trading lower today than it traded 5 years ago!), and we are finally on the cusp of a significant re-rating once robotaxi is scaled and Optimus goes into volume production. As a Tesla shareholder, I would prefer to consider a merger with SpaceX after the re-rating, when Tesla is trading at a much higher valuation. Why give it up now in the 11th hour when we’ve waited this long already?
At the end of the day, what’s good for Elon isn’t necessarily good for Tesla shareholders.
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This is exactly where you fanboys aren't helping elon or tesla.
You just blindly cheerlead without providing valuable feedback to @elonmusk or @Tesla_AI
When unsupervised fsd is FAR from solved, you parrot what elon says and pretend it is.
You clapped your hands like seals when elon pulled Ashok Elluswamy off the FSD project to work on xAI, where FSD is obviously in critical need for his talents.
You nodded in approval when elon rerouted the nvidia gpus from tesla to xai, leaving tesla training cluster underbuilt.
To be quite honest, you fanboys are more of a hazard to tesla investors than a help.