i remember 5 years ago, when anthropic was a slack bot and we were part of their beta
they fucked up their launch timeline
and chat beat them
and i thought: it's over for them
5 years later, they're head to head
facebook / meta had some terrible flops, but they just launched muse, which everyone loves
the biggest companies in the world don't just wake up and magically discover pmf
they find pmf by stacking learning over learning and launching and relaunching
most importantly, they don't give up. not giving up is the most important compounding advantage
everyone can become someone's competition on a long enough time horizon
yes, no one can rival XYZ company in 3 months
but give it 5 years - impossible things become possible on the path from 3 months -> 5 years
The older I get, the more I love feeling like a work in progress. Resist the urge to look polished for the world. You don’t need to pretend you have it all figured out. Nobody does. Embrace your unfinished form. Just commit to getting a better each day and trust where it leads.
“I was struck by the tremendous difference between the attitude of physicists toward physics and the attitude of some psychologists toward psychology. What interested me so much was the following:
Einstein […], made certain predictions, and then repeatedly said, ‘If this prediction should turn out wrong, then my theory is false.’ Now try to think of something similar about Freud.”
—Karl Popper on philosophy, science, and pseudo-science
You should avoid in particular those of a melancholy disposition who find cause for tears in everything and enjoy every opportunity for complaint.
- Seneca
Hot take:
It’s easier for fake friends to be there for your bad times than your good times.
It’s easy to have pity when you’re doing better than someone. It’s much harder to keep wishing them well as they beat you.
The characteristic feature of the loser is to bemoan, in general terms, mankind’s flaws, biases, contradictions, and irrationality—without exploiting them for fun and profit.
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb