Pumponomics

unemployed dad of 3. crypto class of 2017. documenting this cycle trade by trade.

[Pumponomics @ThePumponomics]

road to (hopefully) $35m | month 6 recap

status: currently at $14.8m of $35m. new high for the run.

the goal / title changed, so that first. i moved another $1m over from stocks in september, which makes it $7m invested in total. before it was $6m to $30m which is a 5x, so $7m to $35m keeps it a 5x goal. achievable? who knows.

the goal, for anyone new: documenting a run from $7m to $35m in spot crypto ($5m start, $1m added in june, $1m added in september), every position shown, the losses too.

running tally: $7m in, $10.4m peak in may, below 7m over the summer and september closes at $14.8m.

this should have been a really great month for me because of the zcash run from 800 to 1400. i haven't sold any btw. but zcash was on the back burner of my mind for most of september, because all my attention went to memes (hey, no one ever said i was smart).

early in the month i moved funds to fomo, and went into new cycle memes. the extra $1m invested went in there too over the course of the month. zcash doing so well freed me up mentally to take on more risk, so i pushed. sometimes if you want to win big you have to shove your chips in and swing, and sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.

it was my first real trip into the trenches and i dove in head first. i thought every coin that hit 15 or 20m was going to 200m, got caught up in that, and got rinsed on a lot of coins. my buy timing was really bad overall. if i'd shown up a week or two earlier i'd probably be sitting on a bunch of profit, but i was late locally and playing aggressive at the same time.

so the fomo account is down $711k all time. most of that is unrealized, so it could get a lot worse or a lot better from here.

where the meme money sits now: a big chunk is in pons and stonk, which are two of the leading launchpads, and marscoin is another larger position. i think most of it is in "quality" or quality adjacent memes. if memes can be quality.

i think it works out ok in the end. if it doesn't, it doesn't. i've made my bets and i can live with it either way.

from here i'm taking my foot off the gas a lot. i've made my picks. i will dabble some. but i knew memes probably wasn't my game going in and wanted to give it a shot anyway. it was fun, honestly. it was new and exciting and i hadn't tried anything like it in a long time. i obviously wish it wasn't down $700k.

i also stopped posting most fomo trades on here. the account is public and anyone can look it up.

where the book stands: zcash at $12.3m and the fomo account at $2.4m.

two screenshots again. zcash wallet on top, fomo underneath.

month six done.

[Pumponomics @ThePumponomics]

@gmoneyofficial many such cases

[Pumponomics @ThePumponomics]

@stillibr it’s quite strange why some ppl catch on and others don’t even if their stories are similar

[Pumponomics @ThePumponomics]

@R89Capital give us the nw % split by asset cat

[Pumponomics @ThePumponomics]

@Pumpfun Can I be a squad of 1?

[Pumponomics @ThePumponomics]

@Nsosnsisnsnskx @MoneyPrinter0x youre right. I’m really just looking for stuff to do

[Pumponomics @ThePumponomics]

I was so close to buying and keeping it for a while cuz I do like it but here’s my fud id like your take on.

imo it’s a play on crypto mcap increasing and longs increasing as well. what if btc ranges from 93-75 for a while. Will that give enough juice to really push this to run hard? in contrast with another coin just needing its narrative to catch on to re-rate during that time. am I mid curving?

[Pumponomics @ThePumponomics]

@panamaXBT @andyyy @vinibarbosabr @SatoshiFlipper @AltcoinSherpa @LordDurden @JohnnyZcash @CryptoSays @TheFlowHorse @randgroup @JamesEastonUK @SilverBulletBTC @cousincrypt0 @SmokeyHosoda @CryptoParadyme ur right. Fixed

[Pumponomics @ThePumponomics]

@cyphernormie @jords if you want to? comeback arc’s are cool

[Pumponomics @ThePumponomics]

@mert I unironically like it

[Pumponomics @ThePumponomics]

“because the media told me so”

the world has always been hard.

I think the average standard of living of a person today is light years ahead of where it was 100 years ago.

there are also more opportunities today to change your outcome due to technology than ever before.

ppl are just more aware of what else is out there due to social media and that’s why they are mad.

200 years ago there was massive wealth inequality. the peasant working a farm just didn’t see it shoved down his throat every day.

[Pumponomics @ThePumponomics]

@echinuu maybe a bit more than halfway? it’s so tough to call these shorter tf movements (for me anyways)

I do have another scenario which we go lower and base out for a while

[Pumponomics @ThePumponomics]

been kicking this around for a few months so putting it down here. just where my head is at going into midterms

trump and bessent have every incentive to keep stocks propped up through november. it’s basically the only talking point left. and for the most part they’ve pulled it off

the question i keep coming back to is what happens after?

two paths and they both kind of land in the same spot

if it’s a blue wave, that’s a built in excuse. "stocks were great until america elected democrats, now we can’t pass the agenda, look at your 401k, blame them." let some air out, hit the reset button

if republicans hold or it’s a split, there’s still no election for two years. politicians care about reelection and consolidating power, red blue green whatever. so why keep pushing stimulus and "fighting" inflation at the same time (iran, tariffs you don’t even hear about anymore) when you don’t have to.

take the foot off the gas, let things cool, then turn it back on in the back half of 27 into 28 when the next election starts to matter

doesn’t mean straight down. could just be chop, down a few percent, who knows

the counter is seasonality. choppy and uncertain going into midterms is normal, and the year after midterms has historically been the best of the four year cycle. so i’m holding both of these in my head at the same time

note all the above was stock related.

for crypto specifically: i think the bottom is in, so we bottomed faster than last cycle, and i don’t think the four year cycle is the guidepost it used to be. but looking at the btc chart it feels like we need at least one flush to scare people before the next leg. not "up only" from here

my plan is simple. if btc gets into the mid to high 70s i’m calling that good enough and buying whatever spot alts i haven’t bought yet. if it keeps going past that, i either cut or hold and wait. those are the two outcomes

overwhelming majority off my book has been spot zcash for months and that isn’t changing. i did sell a bunch of other stuff recently so i have real cash for the first time in a while. fully aware that might be pushing me toward wanting a dip so i'm a bit biased.

anyway that’s the macro larp for today.

[Pumponomics @ThePumponomics]

@Gri_web3 For sure could be (prob is) true lol. psyops everywhere for everything basically

[Pumponomics @ThePumponomics]

@NL_ftw he coulda done a much better job pumping

[Pumponomics @ThePumponomics]

@simpelyfe Mine too 🫠

[Pumponomics @ThePumponomics]

@mandrillyx @beracap maybe? it’s more of a bet on crypto mcap increasing and long positions.

[Pumponomics @ThePumponomics]

@fomo Based

[Pumponomics @ThePumponomics]

@hellojintao unlimited mint bros

[Pumponomics @ThePumponomics]

@TheLudwig1 @Mark_A78 Nah but would be nice