Yuri

Solo investor since 2021. Mostly equities, value & GARP. Background in PE, IB and operational management.

[Yuri @therealYuriM]

@Kody__Rogers @Wolfspeed Thanks for the analysis. $wolf is down a lot today though, so probably some other factors are overriding this?

[Yuri @therealYuriM]

@pandawatch88 what do you think about this govt push? Good/bad or more nuanced for $BABA & Co?

[Yuri @therealYuriM]

More interference from the govt generally isn't good for any business. But in this case, doesn't the govt push against involution do more good than bad to Chinese e-com? If they can't stop unreasonable competition themselves, maybe CCP can help them? (proud $BABA bagholder here)

[Yuri @therealYuriM]

@arithesis Thanks for the write up! I'm not sure that I understood your EV math (2.6bn EV at $47 share price?). Fully diluted share count is around 120mn shares which gives us fully diluted market cap of ~$6bn at $47 pps.

[Yuri @therealYuriM]

@pandawatch88 Thank you! I looked at a few HK RE companies last year after reading @ValuePraya 's excellent piece, but never got comfortable enough to pull the trigger. Maybe worth revisiting.

Btw, what is the reason for your allergy towards the sector?

[Yuri @therealYuriM]

@pandawatch88 Do you think $KWEB and specifically $BABA have any chance of joining this party? Asking for a friend.

[Yuri @therealYuriM]

@the_zack_zhu How do you see the outcome of MELI vs SE competition in Brazil, specifically as they are expanding into each other’s fields: MELI going for lower AoV, SE expanding into higher AoV.

[Yuri @therealYuriM]

@pandawatch88 Circle of life!

[Yuri @therealYuriM]

@ReturnsJourney Thanks for the summary! I have close to zero knowledge of this space, just curious because $NU looks cheap on P/E compared to its history. Also, $SE is my largest position, so I'm watching their expansion in BR. Maybe it's the low base effect, but they grew loans 3.5x to >$1bn

[Yuri @therealYuriM]

@pandawatch88 I'm a bit late here, but that's an excellent thread, thank you :)

[Yuri @therealYuriM]

@the_zack_zhu Do you think they can achieve the same overall profit by transferring part of the margin into other services, e.g. delivery? Or could this limit the total % of revenue that the sellers gives to a marketplace in any form?

[Yuri @therealYuriM]

@GabGrowth Expecting decent GMV and revenue growth, but the market is likely to be spooked with low margins and will dump $SE. I already own too much (my biggest position), so not adding anymore.

[Yuri @therealYuriM]

@ReneSellmann I guess Q1 '26 digital boost happened mostly thanks to Pokemon universe games. E.g. Pokopia and Red/Green sold 4mn+ units each in the first 5-6 weeks, part of which fell into Q1.

[Yuri @therealYuriM]

@Invesquotes I think extra 100bn costs include not only memory, but tariffs and smth else. "An impact of approximately 100.0 billion yen due to rising component prices, particularly for memory, and tariff measures has been factored into costs of goods sold"

[Yuri @therealYuriM]

@Invesquotes @TidefallCapital Sandbagging is in $NTDOY's DNA

[Yuri @therealYuriM]

5. Guidance is obviously low-balled (as usual) in terms of SW units and total profit; probably HW units too.
6. Overall earnings look fine to me. The mid- to long-term thesis is intact, so I'm thinking about adding $NTDOY here.
/3

[Yuri @therealYuriM]

A few observations on $NTDOY:
1. % of digital sales 67% in Q1'26, ATH. I think 80-90% is achievable =>margins will go up. Memory costs likely pushing $NTDOY to higher % of digital
2. Effect of tariffs, memory, other costs ~$650mn p.a. I guess a large part of these is temporary
/1

[Yuri @therealYuriM]

3. Price increases are the right step in my opinion. I don't think extra $50 would discourage many from buying S2. Maybe $NTDOY should have increased subscription prices more.
4. Annual playing users flat for 2 years despite S2 launch. I would prefer rising engagement.
/2

[Yuri @therealYuriM]

@MikeFritzell I agree with Atul’s take. But do we really need to focus on the short term so much, unless we
are trying to trade? I believe $NTDOY value is in its long-term durability and cash generation capacity. With a longer term view, I don’t mind the year to year volatility of earnings.