wannabe

just like the name says, a wannabe

[wannabe @therealwannabe]

@MillionaireDoor You taking on any students?

[wannabe @therealwannabe]

@graddhytrading Double top? with long big drawdown?

[wannabe @therealwannabe]

@BitcoinAIGuy Sad but truth

[wannabe @therealwannabe]

@JesseOlson @TheRealPlanC what are your thoughts with regards to diminishing returns and diminishing downside. It seems like limited upside with continued large drawdowns, not very attractive at this point, no?

[wannabe @therealwannabe]

@MillionaireDoor What is the best way to really learn and understand options trading and your process?

[wannabe @therealwannabe]

@Cryptollica @cantonmeow It’s hard to tell from the chart but what price is the line at now?

[wannabe @therealwannabe]

@BigCheds @graddhytrading , thoughts on this?

[wannabe @therealwannabe]

@Pentosh1 You think any form of QE after that?

[wannabe @therealwannabe]

@MillionaireDoor How much time does this take to find and implement these trades?

[Stack Hodler @stackhodler]

DeepSeek is omega-bullish for Bitcoin.

Nasdaq is crashing pre-market and taking Bitcoin down with it.

But this is a temporary correlation.

The narrative is that Deepseek is exposing just how overvalued US tech stocks are.

On the eve of an AI and robotics revolution, US equities seemed like the best game in town...

But if Chinese companies can produce similar innovation at a fraction of the cost, what does that say about US tech valuations?

In my opinion, this will likely end up being a temporary sentiment reset.

Similar to the Yen carry trade or "war in the middle east" panic that served to shake out weak hands before the bull run could continue.

But here's the bigger picture:

We are headed into an era of unprecedented technological innovation.

And businesses that look like sure winners one day WILL end up being disrupted overnight.

Storing your value in equities will end up being a more and more dangerous game.

This Deepseek shock should serve as a wake up call to anyone who is planning on storing their life's savings in equities over the next decade.

Can you count on the businesses that you own not to be disrupted overnight?

Which businesses will be able to maintain their advantage in an age of cheaper and cheaper AI & robotics?

"well that's why I buy indexes"

When you buy the Nasdaq, you're betting on the USA. But what if China eats their lunch?

Or the US rapidly devalues the currency in which the Nasdaq is denominated?

These are difficult questions to answer.

And they highlight the problem we all face: Where to store our value for the long-term.

Bitcoin is the solution to the store of value problem.

Bitcoin will not change.

Bitcoin will not be disrupted.

And It cannot be seized or debased.

In an era of rapid change, Bitcoin's boring predictability is its biggest strength.

Finite supply, new block every ~10 minutes, and a security network tied to real-world energy expenditure that cannot be replicated.

Equities are an artifice built upon the shifting sands of the market, vulnerable to the tremors of creative destruction.

Bitcoin is the solid bedrock on which you want to build your financial future.

This idea is far from understood, and even further from being priced in.

Equities are still THE consensus store of value.

But I expect to see more and more investors conclude that the coming technological revolution requires a new approach to storing value.

History is full of example of investor consensus changing.

Investors used to store value in savings accounts, gold bars, war bonds, etc.

The best ideas of previous eras always end up looking silly in the future.

I think the idea of blindly investing in equity indexes will ultimately be seen as a stepping stone on the journey to finding the ultimate store of value asset.

The best we had until Bitcoin.

Let global companies rapidly innovate and drop prices for everyone.

This should be something we celebrate - not fear because it disrupts equity markets and takes down our store of value assets.

Hold Bitcoin, celebrate creative disruption, and get outside ✌️

[Peter @sion6EQUJ5]

Real Value of a 1971 Home in 2025 Dollars

A 1971 home cost 674 oz of gold. At the 2025 gold price of $2,800/oz, that same home would be valued at $1,887,200 in today’s dollars.

By contrast, the average home price in 2025 is only $420,000, which reflects the fiat system’s inability to preserve real asset value.

If you had stored wealth in gold instead of dollars in 1971, the value of that wealth would have grown significantly, protecting your purchasing power across decades. Fiat currency, however, has failed to do the same.
🧵4/5

[wannabe @therealwannabe]

@mikealfred Satoshi

[wannabe @therealwannabe]

@KevinSvenson_ how can he buy ethna? isn't it banned in the USA?

[Chris Burniske @cburniske]

Continue to believe there are high odds we break the simplistic four-year cycle that $BTC has honored the last ~12 years. If that happens, most people will realize they over-traded what's to come, with too short-term a view. But to buy that thesis, you have to believe blockchains are foundational to our digital future, not some "get rich quick" scheme. Anyone approaching cryptoassets like lottery tickets, has the same odds of getting rich as someone buying an actual lottery ticket.

With a supportive US administration, crypto could be entering a goldilocks period over the next many years, where returns aren't as parabolic, but instead we see steadier growth, not to mention majors stop suffering 85-95% drawdowns. In Carlota Perez's framework (see image), we would be entering the "Deployment" period, after what was a very nasty 2022/23 on all fronts.

On drawdowns: I'm not saying they'll stop, I'm saying it's possible they get less extreme for the majors, which could whiplash people that overtrade with too much aggression. That said, I don't believe in "up only" unless you take an infinite view on Capitalism. But the 85-95% drawdowns come when there's too much unrealized profit in the market structure, combined with fear that the asset may never rise again. It's dawning on the world that BTC and quality cryptoassets are here to stay, and so the "this is dead" pricing is likely behind us for the majors (not for memecoins).

I also think BTC and $ETH both having ETFs, and perhaps SOL+ soon, will provide more consistent buying pressure for these assets. If you ever want to see the % drawdown BTC could be exposed to, look at the 200W SMA, which has been our most reliable technical support each bearish period. Right now at ~$40K that suggests a 60% drawdown is possible, which is a far cry from 80%+ (has to drop another 50% from 60% down, to hit 80% down). As BTC rises, so too will the 200W SMA. And despite always entertaining this number as a possibility, I continue to believe 2025 is a volatile but great year for us.

If there were two major sicknesses I could cure CT of, it would be 1) pessimism and 2) short-termism. Both of these will strip you of the opportunity to hone your investment skills and build significant wealth. Sure, I raise cash in frothy periods from extended assets, but I always stay net long because I firmly believe blockchains are key to our future.

[//Bitcoin 𝕵ack 🐐 @bitcoinjack]

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[wannabe @therealwannabe]

@NorthstarCharts @nickgerli1 This is what most are not understanding. Things will likely continue to get more expensive, ie currency devaluation!

[RektProof. @RektProof]

Range low deviation looking for price to break back into range for a move to 4500-5500

ETH/BTC Chart also tapping daily demand

#Ethereum

[wannabe @therealwannabe]

@therabbithole Now do healthcare!

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

This chart is not Argentine stocks in peso terms v. in USD terms.

It is SPX Total Return in USD terms v. in gold terms, January 1999-present. 🤯 1/

[wannabe @therealwannabe]

@CyclesWithBach @RaoulGMI You think end of Q1 is the top for crypto?