Thesis Checks

The hype board, graded. I track what FinTwit calls and what the stock actually did next. Mostly it's humbling. Calls, not callers. Not advice.

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

I read a lot of stock takes on here. Confident ones. And I realized I had no idea which kinds actually hold up.

So I'm going to start checking. Every week: the calls making the rounds, timestamped and compared to what the stock did next.

Here's how it works 🧵

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@RetroByteVault lol - I missed the “book fair” in your description, but assumed from the picture. So many goosebumps books.

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@RetroByteVault Yeah, but what about the Scholastic book fair?

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@NotA_Bull Algos doing algo things

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

This is all huge. The numbers here are truly staggering and frankly a clear advantage for $META

[Seijin Jung @SeijinJung]

15 muse takeaways from Meta's q3 call today:

1/ 10m+ muse setups in US/CA in 1.5 month

2/ shopping is the #1 use case, 25%+ of weekly actives

3/ average purchase size is $200+

4/ week 1 volumes were so high they had to raise credit limits with stripe

5/ plaid said they had not seen connector activity like this on any other service

6/ zuck expects muse ARPU to beat family of apps over time because of commerce, that base is several hundred dollars per US user per year

7/ business model is free for people, commerce fee paid by businesses, plus subs for power users and business owners

8/ previewed personal agent protocol with walmart, shopify, stripe, sierra. consumer agent to business agent, with controls on both sides

9/ zuck on friction: businesses are overwhelmingly excited so far. expects uneven adoption, many flows stay AI assisted before fully autonomous

10/ next most used connectors after shopping are email and calendar. productivity is the 2nd wallet to win

11/ about 25% use muse daily, retention gets better the longer they use it. 2x+ threads start

12/ #1 in the App Store almost every day, wonder model lifts engagement further

13/ trust layer is secure VM now, confidential VM next where even meta cannot see content

14/ business side already live: assistant plugs into shopify, quickbooks, meta ad accounts, drafts campaigns and replies. vermont maple brand got 57%+ purchases and 36% lower CPA from longer copy it suggested

15/ scale plan is serve over a billion people, cut compute cost 10x in a year. stated endgame is billions of muses transacting

get ready for the biggest transformation in marketing's history folks

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@OGDocHollywood @longwashere @x52xofficial @Bobdog1922 This is the comeback story we’ve all been waiting for. Bull market about to go fucking crazy with the phoenix back

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@Compound_Kid_

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@Bobdog1922 @x52xofficial @longwashere Yeah…x52 the phoenix with an absolute banger of a call. Wish I woulda put some chips down on this one. I’ve got $META shares and that’s nice. But this coulda been way nicer!

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@NotA_Bull The price when their product improves.

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@QuonTradeTalks Up 2% on the day so far. Seems good to me. Better than red and looking constructive

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@Roll1er Whatever… lil bro is tearing it up. Job well done lil buddy.

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@x52xofficial @longwashere Up 30% today - that’s a banger!

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@longwashere

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

This is the right take. If they can get to insta and FB retention they will be heads and tails over all others. They’re already ahead on retention compared to their peers.

[Brad Freeman @StockMarketNerd]

To the people comparing $META Muse retention to Instagram retention…

Maybe try a more apples to apples comp like this one.

Not a brand new product creating new use cases vs. a seasoned, perfected product with a fortress network effect & established uses.

Muse is doing great.

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

For everyone thinking about $META earnings today. Muse is being adopted by so many users. 10M downloads in 40 days. There’s a chart going around showing that their retention lags Facebook and Insta, but the real question is does their retention do better than Claude, Grok, OpenAI?

[Muse Cases @Musecases]

ten million downloads in forty days. muse did not just launch. it landed.

the part that matters is the retention. people are not only trying it. they are keeping it on their phones and coming back to it, at rates higher than its rivals.

that is what happens when an agent does real work instead of just answering questions. it books the flight. it fights the bill. it clears the inbox. people keep the tool that saves them time every week.

send this to one person who still thinks agents are just hype.

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@QC_Capital_ Good IMO. Muse is a great product that is going to catch on like wildfire

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

Muse isn’t just super helpful it’s also a source of 🔥 memes. lol

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@MelvinInvests This was the report that a Morgan Stanley analyst raised their $META expectations to over $800. Their execution here will improve for sure.

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@michaelsikand This was the report that a Morgan Stanley analyst raised their $META expectations to over $800. Their execution here will improve for sure.

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@intelfabs This was the report that a Morgan Stanley analyst raised their $META expectations to over $800. Their execution here will improve for sure.

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@NotA_Bull I did the same!