TimeDecay

Commodity Futures and Options Trader

[TimeDecay @thetaburn]

#Bitcoin looking a lot like....

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

Ex-CFTC chair Gary Gensler is spot on with his amicus brief against federally sanctioned prediction markets:
1) The structure, history, and purpose of federal commodity derivatives markets and laws have nothing to do with sports betting.
2) Congress did not include sports betting contracts within the statutory Dodd-Frank definition of swap.
3) Nobody involved in DF’s passage called for preempting states or their gaming commissions’ authorities over sports betting.
4) DF's “Special Rule,” by text and design, does not define sports bets as swaps.
5) The CFTC did not ask Congress for staffing or appropriations to regulate millions of sports betting transactions either when DF passed or after Murphy, and it lacks the experience to do so.
6) Congress does not make fundamental changes in the balance of state and federal power in isolated snippets of text. As the Court has said, Congress does not “hide elephants in mouseholes.”

37 attorneys general have signed onto a brief supporting Ohio’s right to enforce its state sports gaming and gambling laws.

I don't usually agree with Gensler but he's right that gambling is meant to be regulated in the states.

via @DustinGouker excellent newsletter on these issues.

[TimeDecay @thetaburn]

@JRambo0810 Exactly

[TimeDecay @thetaburn]

@johnarnold @johnarnold are you working with any groups or individual states to submit comments to cftc to advocate that these proucts are all gambling vehicles and have nothing to do with hedging? With state lawsuits already starting is thing likely headed to Supreme Court?

[TimeDecay @thetaburn]

@zerohedge Wait …..people aren’t willing to spend lots of money just to make memes??? Hahahaha

[TimeDecay @thetaburn]

@charliebilello This is absurd. Prems have almost doubled in last 5 years

[TimeDecay @thetaburn]

@KobeissiLetter Maybe “owning assets” isn’t right after all……

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

MicroStrategy insiders have sold almost a billion dollars worth of $MSTR and have been massively unloading stock the past 60 days.

What do they see that their retail investors don't?

[TimeDecay @thetaburn]

@ZynxBTC Hahaha you didn’t lock in anything….

[TimeDecay @thetaburn]

@Strawhats7 @GrainFinger People still trade wheat?

[Autism Capital 🧩 @AutismCapital]

Don't worry about the Bitcoin price. Strong support at $0.

[Jacob King @JacobKinge]

BREAKING: Michael Saylor is down nearly $11 billion on Bitcoin, making him the largest loser in the entire market.

In 2000, Saylor lost -99% of his wealth after betting heavily on dot-com bubble stocks and was ranked the #1 biggest loser of the crash.

History is repeating itself. Exactly as I said it would years ago.

[TimeDecay @thetaburn]

@ADHD_Capital Spot on

[TimeDecay @thetaburn]

@JacobKinge Amen - it’s only value was hype. The hype is over.

[Jacob King @JacobKinge]

Michael Saylor, Mark Cuban, BlackRock, Coinbase, Tether, Binance, the top three mining firms, Mara Holdings, CleanSpark, Core Scientific, GameStop, and dozens more are all dumping their Bitcoin after urging everyone else to buy in at the peak and HODL forever.

Bitcoiners got played and became their exit liquidity. Bitcoin was never going anywhere; it was just a tool for the elites to milk poor, naive sheep.

[doomer @doomerfied]

[ DOOMER ]

MICHAEL SAYLOR’S STRATEGY $MSTR WILL BEGIN SELLING $4B IN BITCOIN TO COVER STRC DIVIDEND PAYMENTS: PRESS RELEASE

[TimeDecay @thetaburn]

@johnarnold As an energy guy - ask what it costs to use and build “ai things”. Tokens aren’t free. The way someone designs something matters. Inefficient AI design is expensive. If you build something what will it cost to keep it running? Long term AI success = we better find cheaper energy

[Magoo PhD @HodlMagoo]

Okay good, now tell them I’m changing my name to Michael Seller.

[Jacob King @JacobKinge]

BREAKING: Tether’s market cap has just plunged by more than $1.1 billion in a single day, its largest drop ever.

Remember, the entire crypto market is built on a foundation of fraudulent stablecoin-driven liquidity. As that liquidity is now contracting, significant downside WILL follow.

Bitcoin’s price will soon reflect this reality. Even maximalist Michael Saylor has admitted that he will soon sell his BTC. The only people left holding indefinitely are those who were conned into believing that Bitcoin actually has real value and that “HODLing forever” is a strategy.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*STRATEGY SOLD 32 BITCOIN FOR $2.5M DURING MAY 26 TO MAY 31

[Evan Luthra @EvanLuthra]

🚨THE FBI CREATED A FAKE CRYPTOCURRENCY.. LISTED IT ON UNISWAP.. HIRED MARKET MAKERS TO PUMP IT.. THEN ARRESTED EVERYONE WHO SAID YES..

THIS IS THE CRAZIEST LAW ENFORCEMENT OPERATION IN CRYPTO HISTORY!!!

The FBI built an actual ERC-20 token on Ethereum called NexFundAI.. 100 billion token supply.. A professional website.. Whitepapers promising "passive income through AI-powered investing"..

It looked exactly like every other crypto project.. Because that was the point..

Undercover agents posed as the founding team.. Then reached out to professional market-making firms and said "we need you to fake our trading volume"..

Every single firm said yes..

Here's what they recorded..

Gotbit.. A firm run by a 26-year-old Russian who publicly bragged in 2019 that he built a business faking trade volumes.. His team kept internal spreadsheets with columns literally labeled "fake volume" vs "market volume"..

When asked how fast they could pump NexFundAI's volume to $1 million per day.. They said "6 hours.. It will cost about $200"..

$200 to fake $1 million in daily trading volume..

MyTrade.. Run by a guy who called himself "the mastermind".. He explained the exact psychology of the scam on camera..

"We make the chart look like a really nice roller coaster ride.. That's where people jump in.. We have to make them lose money in order to make profit"..

He said that on a recorded FBI video call..

CLS Global.. A Dubai-based firm.. Their bots generated 98% of NexFundAI's total trading volume.. When the FBI asked if they could sync fake volume spikes with fake news announcements.. They said absolutely..

ZM Quant.. Bots executing 10 to 20 trades per minute through dozens of wallets to look organic..

All of them knew it was fraud.. All of them did it anyway.. All of it was recorded..

And the clients were even worse..

Saitama.. A meme coin that hit $7.5 billion market cap.. The founders coordinated buys through private Telegram chats.. Sent "pump it" memes while manipulating the price.. Then dumped on retail investors..

$7.5 billion.. Built entirely on fake volume.. Every penny of real money came from retail investors who thought the momentum was organic..

One founder left Saitama and started Robo Inu.. Used Gotbit again.. Another launched VZZN.. Same playbook..

Lillian Finance.. Founder claimed to be a defense contractor who addressed Congress.. Marketed the token as funding children's hospitals.. Pocketed everything..

When the FBI shut it down.. They seized $25 million in one day.. 18 people indicted across the US, UK, and Portugal.. The CEO of Gotbit was arrested in Portugal and extradited.. Sentenced to 8 months plus $23 million forfeiture..

But here's the part that broke my brain..

Real people bought NexFundAI..

The FBI's fake token.. With zero utility.. Zero real developers.. Created solely to catch criminals.. Attracted real retail investors because the fake volume made the chart look bullish..

When the FBI pulled the liquidity to end the operation.. Those people lost real money.. On a government-issued token..

The FBI had to set up a restitution portal to pay them back..

And it gets worse..

Within 24 hours of the DOJ announcing the sting.. Someone cloned the FBI's exact smart contract.. Launched a copycat token.. Rode the viral momentum.. And made $127,000 in a single day..

Using the exact same manipulation tactics the FBI just arrested 18 people for..

Then in 2026.. The FBI did it again.. New token called Lexobit.. 10 more arrests.. Including operators extradited from Singapore..

IRS forensics showed that in one firm's trading.. 1,209 out of 1,221 consecutive transactions went straight back to wallets the firm controlled.. 99% circular..

The FBI proved what everyone in crypto suspected..

The volume is fake.. The charts are painted.. The momentum is manufactured..

And every time you buy a token because "the chart looks bullish".. You might be the exit liquidity.