Thomas Dowling

Days: Co-founder and CEO of @fullseam. Nights: dad + @ISACFinAid Commissioner.

[Thomas Dowling @thetomdowling]

Anthropic just launched Fable 5, their most capable model yet.

They should have let the model write the HTML on the pop-up advertising the release.

[Thomas Dowling @thetomdowling]

@bubjacks @vinylequity @Secondrob @jumpcapital More of this content please.

[Thomas Dowling @thetomdowling]

Or in our case, Florida, LA, Vegas, Dallas, and Chicago!

[Thomas Dowling @thetomdowling]

If I had a dollar every time a Twitter personality dunked on YC by confidently making a bunch of false assertions, I would have $500k in exchange for 7% of @FullSeam

[Daniel Vassallo @dvassallo]

Since everyone is seeing who Garry Tan is today, let me remind you: WHY YOU SHOULD NOT JOIN Y COMBINATOR

YC seems like a reasonable proposition. They give you some money to help start your business and promise you access to a community of people who can help you along the way. In exchange, they don't ask for much. The standard YC deal is $500K for 7% equity. That doesn't sound too bad, right?

By the end of this post I will convince you that it's actually a terrible idea.

ERGODICITY

First, you have to understand a very important concept: in some systems, what's best for a group is not necessarily what's best for the individuals who make up that group. The total wealth of a group of people could be increasing while almost everyone in that group sees their wealth diminish. When this happens, we say we have a non-ergodic system. If the system were ergodic, what's happening to the collective would also translate to each individual.

Silicon Valley is a non-ergodic industry (like Hollywood, book publishing, the music industry, and even your country's economy unless you're under full-blown communism). A non-ergodic system is not necessarily bad, but if you're not cognizant of the system you're in, you're going to get played like a fiddle. Those who benefit from the collective will take advantage of you while you, the individual, lose out. This is what YC will try to do to you. In fact, this is what YC has to do, otherwise it won't survive. Let me explain.

LOOKING FOR TREASURE

Imagine you're told there's a bunch of hidden treasure within a 100 acre area. What's the best strategy for finding some of it?

One way is to pick a spot and dedicate your entire life digging as far down as possible in that one spot. You might reason that the deeper the treasure, the bigger the loot. You don't want to settle for a measly small treasure box. You want the full chest of diamonds buried near the earth's crust. This is your shot at glory.

Another way is to use a search method employed by search and rescue teams. You divide the area into small squares and do a "reasonable search" in each one. You use probabilities and some common sense to guide how deep to dig, and then you move to the next square. If you encounter undisturbed compacted dirt, chances are there's no treasure beneath. If you run into bedrock, it's almost certain there's nothing below. So you use that information and move on. Your goal is to search the entire probable area as quickly as possible. Ideally within your lifetime.

I'm sure you agree the first way is a dumb strategy. Almost every digger employing it will die treasure-less. But actually, it's only dumb for the individual treasure hunter. For a gold mining company, this is the optimal strategy. The company only needs one miner to hit the jackpot, and all the other miners can die penniless. If the cost of sacrificing an individual treasure hunter is low, the most optimal strategy is to recruit tens of thousands of them, allocate hundreds per acre, and make them dig all the way down to the earth's core. The treasure hunting economy would grow much bigger than if all the individual treasure hunters were optimizing for their own self-interest.

Digging in one spot is a dumb strategy for the individual, but a very wise strategy for the collective.

This is what happens in a non-ergodic system. We often hear politicians claim that the GDP of the country is growing, but all the gains are going to the 1%. This is the same thing. The wealth of a country could be growing while almost all its citizens get poorer. There's nothing inconsistent about this. The average is simply being dragged up by the freak outliers.

The same thing happens in venture capital. The owners of the portfolio maximize their returns when the system is non-ergodic, because while the individual treasure hunter has one lifetime to strike gold, the VC portfolio has access to thousands of lifetimes: those of all the treasure hunters.

PLANE CRASH

YC will proudly tell you that you are more likely to end up with a billion-dollar business if you join them. That may be true. What they're more reluctant to tell you is that only about 50 companies met that bar out of the 4,000 or so that went through their program. That's 1.25%. To be fair, that's actually quite impressive. But let's say you have the stamina and willpower to go through YC three times in your lifetime. You'd still need approximately 26 lifetimes to hit the jackpot. See the problem?

I don't know about you, but I want to be successful in this lifetime. I can't afford to rely on 26 lifetimes. But maybe you think you're special. You're not like those 3,950 dummies who failed. Maybe you are in fact special, but I wouldn't rely too much on that. Business is much more random than it seems. If business were predictable, YC wouldn't have a measly 1.25% success rate.

You might think that those who failed still got something out of it. Maybe. But failure is a very expensive way to learn. You don't need to crash a plane to learn how to fly one. And whatever lessons come from going through YC are probably not very useful anyway, but more on that later.

PIVOTS DON'T EXIST

One of the bad lessons you get from YC is that there's a formula for success, and it looks like this: First you brainstorm. Then you come up with a good idea that can scale to a billion dollars (otherwise what's the point of getting out of bed in the morning?) Then you work hard until you find "product-market fit." And then if the signals from investors indicate you won't be getting a next round of funding, you start looking for a "pivot."

This so-called formula is nonsense. Good ideas rarely come from a brainstorming session. They come from wandering about with an open mind until you stumble on an opportunity worth pursuing. Most of your ideas will be bad ideas, because unfortunately you're not a visionary genius. So the best way to find good ideas is to have many ideas, try them out, take what works, and throw away the rest. But this is not what YC wants you to do. YC wants you to pick an idea that has market pull (or the potential for it) and then dig a hole in the same spot until you reach the boiling magma. Because what if you stop digging just before you strike gold? When you're cheap and expendable, that's not an optimal strategy for the YC fund. You must go all in. Diversification is for your YC overlords, not for you.

If you reach the magma layer and still have nothing, then you'd be encouraged to pivot. But that's not how you find business opportunities in the real world. You can't just say "I'm going to pivot" and suddenly a good opportunity lands on your lap from heaven. You get good ideas by embracing randomness for a long time, until something looks like it has a fighting chance of paying off. The pivot idea you were forced to come up with is extremely unlikely to be one. Your imagination is overrated. The YC execs didn't imagine Stripe or Dropbox or Airbnb. Random things came to them during demo days. The YC folks are smart because they know their imagination is limited. You should too. You can't just pivot a business idea. And if you're going to cherry-pick some pivot that worked out of the thousands attempted, you should stop reading now. Just go join YC.

The second bad lesson from YC is the focus on the upside. If there's any formula for success in business, it's to focus relentlessly on staying in the game rather than hitting it big. Focus on the downside, and let the upside take care of itself. To thrive, you must first survive. To win the race, you must finish the race. But this is in tension with what YC wants you to do. They want you to dig deep to the middle of the earth, and if you don't come back alive, tough luck. You were a brave soldier, but now it's time for them to focus on the other 999 soldiers. YC is still alive, but you're not.

Don't be a dummy. Don't be a bet in somebody else's portfolio.

BUT YOU JUST WANT TO SELL YOUR COURSE!!!

Aha, you caught me! It's true. I do sell something. I run a community for aspiring small-time entrepreneurs who are satisfied with reliably attainable mediocre success. The YC folks feel sorry for our joy with mediocrity while they're out there changing the world. And we reciprocate the emotion.

So yes, I am promoting something that goes against everything YC stands for. But if you think YC is not also selling you something, I have a bridge to sell you. Maybe I'm being a bit too harsh though. Because what is it that YC is selling you exactly?

Me, I charge you a one-time payment of $450 and you get access to my community, which includes live workshops, recorded classes, a group chat, and a few other things. It's very clear what I'm doing. I ask for money in exchange for access, and those who pay get access. Even my 9 year old understands it.

But YC is not asking you for money. They actually give you money! It looks like you're the one selling to them. You're technically selling them a piece of your business, no?

No, no, no. Hold on. The easiest way to see what YC is selling is to look at military recruitment. The military sells the narrative that serving your country is a noble endeavor. You'll get a shot at glory, and at the very least you'll gain some important life skills. You'll also get paid enough to feed yourself and cover your basic needs, but barely. The military wants to recruit expendable soldiers who will go out to the battlefield risking life and limb for the collective, while the generals with all the medals sit in an air-conditioned room giving orders.

YC is no different. It wants to recruit wide-eyed young founders to pick a spot on the treasure map and dig all the way down through the earth's crust. Most of them will spend years or decades digging, and all they end up with is a ramen lifestyle. Usually bunched up with 4 roommates in a damp San Francisco basement living on takeout ramen noodles every single day. But hey, they're young. They'll have time to do adult things later, like starting a family or making decent money. And at the very least, they'll gain some important life lessons and make some good connections.

Think about this for a second: the most successful business owners are typically in their 40s and 50s. Why is YC full of 20-somethings? Why aren't the 40 year old entrepreneurs taking up this incredible deal? YC will tell you it's because only the 22 year old kids can be true visionaries. BULL. SHIT. You're not a visionary. All those 4,000 kids who went into YC also thought they were visionaries, and where are they now? They're all in the startup cemetery, except for a dozen or so who despite the low odds managed to flip 26 heads in a row. The biggest indicator that YC is a bad deal is that only people who are easily duped take it.

UNLEARNING IS HARD

The best thing I learned about business is to avoid trying to predict what will work and what won't. YC knows this. That's why they only make small bets across thousands of businesses. But YC will try to teach you the exact opposite.

Business is a lot more random than it seems. You can't treat it like a predictable project. You need to treat it like a financial investment. Instead of investing your money, you're investing your time, which is as scarce and as precious as money (if not more). Tell me, how do you invest your money? Do you pick one amazing stock, say NVDA, and put all your life savings into it? Of course not. You understand that finance is uncertain. What's good today might not be good tomorrow. There are hidden risks everywhere. And even if your stock pick doesn't go bust, the biggest gains are likely to happen elsewhere and you won't benefit from them if you're only exposed to one piece of equity. If you went all in on AAPL in 2022, you would have missed out on NVDA. Same thing in business.

YC teaches you to try to be a visionary. When you fail... oopsie! Tough luck. The fund benefits from the non-ergodic nature of the system, but you're out years of your time. And that's not even the worst of it. You will have been taught things that not only won't work in the real world of business, but are actively counterproductive. You will have to unlearn almost everything.

If you want to succeed in the real world (and within this lifetime), you need to try many small things, experiment, tinker, and build a portfolio of multiple income streams. You need to treat your time the same way you treat your brokerage account. You basically need to become a VC, but for your own ideas. To make the system ergodic, you must unleverage yourself from going all in on one thing and get access to many diverse income streams. The same way it's wise to invest in a broad ETF, you should be doing the same with your projects. YC will teach you the opposite, and you'll have to unlearn all of it. Unfortunately, unlearning is much harder than learning.

[Michael Seibel @mwseibel]

Too many investors focus on the "successes" of their Series B companies when advising early stage companies. They don't understand how many of their Series B companies will die. Too few investors have spent time with long term successful businesses. Founders take note.

[Thomas Dowling @thetomdowling]

@danielpearson Can’t be right, missing @FullSeam

[Garry Tan @garrytan]

We are so early

[Thomas Dowling @thetomdowling]

Took all of @raphaelschaad's advice on the video except for changing the music — accountants deserve rock music, not productivity music :)

[Thomas Dowling @thetomdowling]

The idea is simple: accounting teams don’t need another dashboard — they need teammates.

Grateful to be building @FullSeam with Geoff and Aaron — and to @ycombinator for backing us again.

[Y Combinator @ycombinator]

.@FullSeam is your AI-powered finance and accounting teammate.

FullSeam agents log into a company's existing accounting tools and do routine tasks that teams usually do by hand, like accounts payable and receivable.

Congrats on the launch @thetomdowling, @aaroncoppaf10, and @thegeoffsegal!

https://t.co/fMgDhtrHh9

[Thomas Dowling @thetomdowling]

This would have never happened if they used @FullSeam

[Wall Street Rollup @WallStRollup]

Law firm Jones Day has sued Centre Lane Partners, a PE firm, accusing them for failing to pay more than $9.6mm in legal fees across dozens of its portfolio companies.

Jones Day claims Centre Lane suddenly stopped paying invoices in 2024.

[Thomas Dowling @thetomdowling]

Convenient coincidence that the primary logo colors for both are orange...

@ycombinator (S19 and W26) and @UofIllinois both changed my life. If you're a student interested in startups, make sure you see @koomen while he's there!

[Paul Graham @paulg]

I bet few people there know it, but YC wouldn't exist without UIUC. My father went there from England on a Fullbright, and came back determined to move to America.

[Thomas Dowling @thetomdowling]

The real rite of passage in startups? Getting berated by a USPS clerk while mailing your 83(b).

[Austan Goolsbee @Austan_Goolsbee]

The lengths the NYT will go to avoid having to acknowledge Chicago for anything is unnerving

(For anyone interested, the 10 story Home Insurance building of 1885 is widely understood to be the first skyscraper)

[Trent 🇺🇸 @tnertz]

How did anything ever get built?

Some excerpts I’ve heard over the course of the public meetings:
“It doesn’t fit the scale of the neighborhood”
“Can the developer make some compromises”
“It’ll impact our view from our high rise”

[Thomas Dowling @thetomdowling]

@ankurnagpal Would love to see!

[Thomas Dowling @thetomdowling]

America!

[Vashon Jordan Jr. @vashon_photo]

Fall in Chicago, Illinois. #autumn 🍁🌳🍂

[Thomas Dowling @thetomdowling]

@sweatystartup Us (@TaxProper). We do property tax work for Invitation, AH4R, Brookfield (Conrex), and many more. Can talk you through the tradeoffs between national/local providers.

[Thomas Dowling @thetomdowling]

ILL!

[TopScholars@Illinois @TopScholars1]

We are proud to announce that Mariama Mwilambwe has been named one of 58 undergraduates nationwide to receive a Truman Scholarship (@TrumanApp), an award providing graduate funding for students committed to a career in public service.

Congrats, Mariama! 🥳