Thumbthoughts

just trying to make it.

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@TheValueist So NBIS, still has to accumulate substantially more debt, diversify customer concentration, and convert contacted power to revenue active power at scale.

Everything that CRWV has already done and proven. Yet they trade at the same valuation…

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@CernunnosCap @JaMarc0 @PrivCreditGuy @danielisdizzy @Avrideai @TolokaAI @TripleTenTech @ClickHouseDB Haha trust? Here’s a free pre payment nebius because we trust you on something you’ve never done before. And don’t worry, we will forget all about that Yandex mess.

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@AnalysisOp @RHouseResearch 2030 and CRWV say they will have 8GW active. NBIS right now is stuck with 2 customers on pre payment terms and haven’t executed a scale out. One is focused on near term optics vs long term build out. They both can be wildly successful. But market might have it backwards imo

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@stonkanalysis It’s great that NBIS is making a run right now. Despite not actually scaling anything yet.

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@wyshynski Caps were down 0-2, in 2OT during conf quarters, against CBJ. Panarin rings the pipe. CBJ commits own goal on bad bounce. Rest was history.

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@Dr_Crossroads It’s puzzling. One is at 1GWs today, front loading debt to scale fast, planning to bill 8GW of compute by 2030. The other might look cleaner today at 170MW but will never catch up without taking on a lot more debt. Either they both rip or the latter is peak hype bag holding rn

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@Lazarus_Capital @RHouseResearch In CRWVs case, the main hyperscaler was Microsoft to provide compute for OAI. CRWV has a small deal with Google, but they mostly have contracts directly with AI Labs, Meta, and gaining business streams outside of AI.

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@meeijer The thing is, it’s not flexibility, it’s choice. CRWV could have done the same but chose a different path. Those customer prepayments come at a cost. Now NBIS doing same GPU backed loans that CRWV made famous.

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@danielisdizzy All the nbis bots in here talk about crwv debt like nbis will fund their build out with Willy wonka tickets. Not realizing the front loaded debt play was genius by crwv. Name me another company who has best of Wall Street and best of Silicon Valley at the helm.

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@bennybigbull Prepayments in the form of loans or discounted compute costs. Which is more expensive than capital debt markets.

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@BenBajarin Do you think the current installed base CPU generations can support future AI inference workloads being developed on the increasingly powerful GPU gens?

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@ParadisLabs I see posts like this a lot comparing nebius to coreweave and the debt. But nobody explains how nebius is going to scale without taking on the same amount of debt. CRWV just said they will be at 8 gw by 2030.

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@JPFinlayNBCS @NickiJhabvala @mattbarrows JP no way can AP and team still bank on him coming here and being a big piece of this offense? Not matter who’s right or wrong between SF and Aiyuk. Nobody is getting a 2023 version of this guy now.

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@Cory_Tucek Soft.

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@GrantPaulsen Spot on!

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@TheTechInvest In theory this makes sense. But it leaves out the part about how extremely difficult it is to operate these GPUs clusters at scale. Doesn’t matter how vertically integrated you are.

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@amitisinvesting Help me make sense of this. CRWV is much larger already and scaling faster than NBIS. How does NBIS even get close to CRWV’s scale without a significant debt burden?

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@GrantPaulsen I’m a fan of this