Tinky

occasional uncommon insights into, and reflections on what was once the world's greatest game...

[Tinky @Tinky47flat]

@gringoinbrazil Thanks!

[Tinky @Tinky47flat]

‡

2026 Belmont Stakes Card

Here are some of my thoughts on the majority of the races, and contenders, on Saturday's big card. I hope that you find them to be entertaining, if not useful.

The attached image is of A.P. Indy winning the 1992 Belmont. He happens to be Chief Wallabee's great-great paternal grandsire.

▶️ 1 – Bill Mott has entered a first-starter named Crowning Glory in this 7f. MSW. She is notable in that she is out of the excellent producing mare Close Hatches, which has already thrown Tacitus, Batten Down, and Scylla, all three of which won Graded stakes. Though the latter did win at first asking over 6f., all three were galloping types that did their best work around two-turns. Crowning Glory is by Uncle Mo, and could therefore be a different type, but unless she were to be bet heavily, suggesting particularly encouraging works, I'd be inclined to wait for another day.

▶️ 3 – The French-bred gelding Intellect has only finished worse than 3rd in one of his 14 career starts. That's impressive, though he has finished second seven times, with three wins to his credit. Since having been imported, he has finished second four times, and has yet to win. Interestingly, his wins in France came over over soft, very soft, and heavy courses.
He is likely to be a short price in this race, and appears to outclass his opponents. But while his action, and good performances in Graded stakes at Saratoga last year suggest versatility, I'd have more confidence in him on a course softened up by at least a bit rain. So barring that, I'd be inclined to wait for better odds under those conditions, even against a much stronger field, to back him.

▶️ 4 – Spectacular Grey raced twice at Monmouth as a two-year-old, while trained by Alexis Delgado. She earned a very modest 54 Beyer figure when breaking her maiden on debut, then finished last in the Colleen stakes. Even assuming that something went wrong in the latter race (she has been off for a year), it seems like an odd horse to reappear in Todd Pletcher's barn, and make her 3yo debut in a tough allowance at Saratoga, which includes the likes of Steer Clear, also trained by Todd. I'm not suggesting that she is at all likely to win, but it will be interesting to see how she performs.

▶️ 6 – This appears to be a hot, and interesting allowance race, which includes both some seasoned, multiple winners, and promising lightly raced horses. In the former category, Linda Rice's Playa Del Mar appears to be the most dangerous. Two for two since being claimed for $50k in February, he improved significantly and recorded Beyer figures of 89 and 98. (Never underestimate the value of a good equine dentist. 😅) Though he cuts back from a mile to 6.5f., and draws the rail, he can't be dismissed lightly.
Village Person, drawn just outside of Playa Del Mar, has already demonstrated that he is a tough horse. He hasn't run nearly as fast as some of the others, but moved forward nicely in his first effort outside of Colonial Downs, winning at Aqueduct in early May. That was against NY-breds, and this is a much stiffer task, but he may move forward again in his second start at three.
Local Knowledge has been off since October, but in that debut race he recorded a winning 94 Beyer figure at Keeneland. The third-place finisher that day, Gallivant, won a stakes race later in the meet, and obviously has talent. This won't be an easy task off of a seven month layoff, but the colt by Yaupon is an obvious contender. In early April, Brightline Bullet was an open-length winner in his second start, and also ran fast enough to be a contender here. But this will be a sharp step up, and he has yet to prove that he can win under pressure. The same could be said of Sea Strike, which won on debut for Chad Brown at Aqueduct in April, though his effort was quite pleasing to the eye. Gun Range, a Wesley Ward runner, won his debut at Keeneland in April. He was a bit green in the stretch before hitting the front, hanging on his left lead with his head cocked, but went well after switching and going clear of the pack. He appears to be a powerfully built, heavy-bodied horse, which suggests that he takes after his dam-sire War Front, and is likely to prove best over sprint distances. In just his second start, I'd be a bit concerned about his lack of seasoning, and how he might respond to a hard-fought stretch battle against more talented rivals.

▶️ 7 – The Just a Game Stakes features Segesta, the filly that arguably got the short end of the stick in the dubious Jenny Wiley photo finish in April. She is a good, tough, high-class performer, but the French shipper Mandanaba appears dangerous on form. Her trainer, Francis Henri Graffard, trains both last year's Arc winner, Daryz, and Calendagen, the world's top rated (by some) turf runner in 2025, which is favored to win the Group I Coronation Cup on Saturday in Britain. This filly was beaten only a length in last season's French 2000 Guineas (Group I), and 4th beaten less than 3 lengths in the important Group I Prix de Diane. Unlike some Euro-shippers, she shows good form on "firm" ground, and if she were to make a good physical appearance and be a longer price than Segesta, she might be worth a close look.
Sandtrap is clearly promising and underexposed, but would need to move well forward to pose a threat to the above fillies.

▶️ 8 – The True North. I tend not to focus on sprinters, so I'll simply be watching and rooting for Book'em Danno, whose only unplaced effort from 6-7f. came when he finished fourth in last year's Churchill Downs Stakes (Gr. I), a race in which the first four finishers were separated by a neck, a head and a head.

▶️ 9 – The Jaipur. Broadly speaking, I consider the reduction of distances of stakes races to be a form of degradation, and a reflection of the dubious trajectory of the game over recent decades. So it rubs me the wrong way that the Jaipur is now contested over 5.5f. In 1962, the horse after which the race was named won the 12f. Belmont Stakes, and set a 10f. track record in the Travers. He was fast, and did win sprint stakes as a two-year-old, including the Hopeful, but at least the 7f. distance over which this race was contested through its first ~20 runnings afforded the best horses better chances of winning, than a 5.f. crap-shoot.

▶️10 – The Woody Stephens is certainly an interesting race. It's nice to see Six Speed racing at a much more appropriate distance, but difficult to imagine that the KY Derby was an ideal prep race. I genuinely hope that he runs well, but he has his work cut out for him.
Taj Mahal falls into a similar category, though did win from off the pace while sprinting on debut.
Crude Velocity and Englishman both cut back from a mile, but the latter has yet to prove that he can win from off of the pace.
There are others to consider, including Solitude Dude, which is unbeaten in his four starts over sprint distances, and Civil Liberty, which was just a neck back of Crude Velocity in a maiden race in March, and ran fast while breaking his maiden at Keeneland. But unless some horse at a juicy price were to make an exceptional appearance, I'll likely enjoy the seemingly competitive race without a betting interest.

▶️ 11 – The Met Mile is another interesting affair, and Journalism will cut back in distance after having contested 9-10f. races since last year's Santa Anita Derby. As some readers may recall, I have expressed some doubts that 10f. was ideal for him, but it would be extreme to argue that he somehow failed to stay 9f. From a management standpoint, though, I think that his connections are making the right move. Not because he is necessarily the most likely winner of the Met, but because he is almost certain to continue to find the 9-10f. races to be tough sledding. And if he should happen to improve and run big on Saturday, those connections would be well-rewarded for the change. Having said all of that, Journalism has never displayed a serious turn of foot, and may need to be well set-up (i.e. sit off of a strong pace, and come with a perfectly timed late run) in order to prevail.
It's hard to knock Nysos, which now sports a record of seven wins and a second from eight starts. He is not only very talented, but has an exceptionally good racing attitude. He also likely has the right running style for this type of race, given an honest to fast pace. The biggest questions relate to his trip to Saudi, and subsequent layoff, though he has run well fresh in the past, and the inside post from the Wilson Chute, which can prove tricky. He did look good in a clip of a recent gallop over the track, FWIW.
Knightsbridge ran a clunker at Churchill on Derby day, but has likely been overrated on the basis of his very fast performance in the Gulfstream Mile (112 Beyer) in February. That victory, and the two preceding ones, came at the expense of fields that were far inferior to the one that he will face on Saturday. Yes, he has a lot of talent, and Mott would not be running him back had he not trained well since the disappointment at Churchill. But does he have the class to rebound with a hard-fought win against a high-class field? I wouldn't bet on it.
I'm also skeptical of Saudi Crown, though he should help to insure a good pace.
Antiquarian is an interesting outsider, as his 5yo debut was pleasing, and he gives the impression of the type of horse that could improve further as a fully mature horse.

▶️ 12 – The Manhattan, like the Just a Game, features a dangerous French import. Bright Picture, trained by Andre Fabre, is a 5yo gelding which won his first two starts this year, before placing second on relatively firm ground to last year's Arc winner, Daryz. It's also worth noting that Leffard, the horse that Bright Picture beat in his second run this year, came back to finish runner-up to Daryz in the recently run Group I Prix Aga Khan IV (formerly Prix d'Ispahan) at Longchamps.
Deterministic is a NY favorite, and has won three straight races since Miguel Clement took the reins from his late father, Christophe. While a thoroughly likable horse, there is a gap in quality between the horses that he has beating, and those that Bright Picture has faced. And if the former happens to be favored, it would arguably create an automatic overlay on the latter (the 3/1 morning line seems unrealistic). With foreign shippers it is very important to judge their pre-race appearances, but barring any negative signs, Bright Picture may prove tough to handle.

▶️13 – The Belmont Stakes. I'll run through the contenders chronologically, excluding no-hopers. Superficially, Powershift appears to be ambitiously placed, but given how the likely pace scenario has shaped up, and how well he ran first out against Emerging Market, he can't be easily dismissed. It's also worth noting that he has been working very well in company with the likely race favorite, Renegade. From a pedigree standpoint, and especially given something less than a strong pace, there is no reason that he shouldn't stay the 10f. trip. He's a threat, though I would be a surprised if he were allowed by rival jockeys to get away with dominating a slow pace.
Chief Wallabee ran very well in the Derby, and under less than ideal circumstances. Though technically 10th in the early and middle stages of the race, he ran significantly faster than the top three finishers through the first 6f., was bumped and buffeted in mid-stretch, even losing his hind end briefly, yet ran on gamely to finish just three lengths behind the winner. He has looked good in training, and it would be no shock to see him produce a breakout performance. One of the two most likely winners, in my view.
Renegade is an obvious favorite, but the trouble that he encountered at the start of the Derby had the effect of forcing him to rally from far back, which was where all of the top three finishers raced in the early stages. He certainly won't be so far back this time around, but as a natural closer, anything less than a solid pace could render him vulnerable to rivals which have better tactical speed. At a short price, he can win without me, even if he is the best horse in the race.
Ottinho shows progressive form, but is another would benefit from the type of brisk pace which may not materialize, and is unlikely to be good enough to crack the top three places.
Growth Equity is another progressive, underexposed horse, but would need to take a serious step up, and on pedigree, is a question mark over 10f.
Commandment is another horse that encountered some trouble in the Derby, and was disadvantaged by racing too close to the pace. He also ran well under adverse conditions in the Florida Derby. My reading of him is that he may ultimately prove better suited to 8-9f., but a moderate pace would enhance his chances to stay the 10f. trip. I can see him in the mix in the final furlong, but prefer to look elsewhere for a winner.
Emerging Market was my pick in the Derby, and he reportedly lost a front shoe early in the race. No one, including his connections, can judge what effect, if any, that had on his performance, but it certainly didn't help. Am I willing to give him another chance? Yes. He has enough tactical speed to be in a striking position on the final turn, even given a less that strong pace, and the Belmont is virtually certain to be more cleanly run than the Derby. Couple that with this being only Emerging Market's fourth lifetime start, and I'd be very surprised if he were to fail to take a step forward. Along with Chief Wallabee, he is one of the two that I will focus on, for betting purposes.
Golden Tempo was a popular long-shot winner of the Derby, but the fact is that the stars aligned for him on that big day. His deep one-run style benefitted him, none of the fancied horses aside from Renegade ran to their best, and he got the job done. Faced with the likelihood of a different pace scenario in the Belmont, and several good horses with better tactical speed, I would be quite surprised to see him win. To be fair, he is a very nice horse, and may well have further improvement in him. But to put matters into perspective, the 95 Beyer that he earned for his Derby win was slower than numbers that had previously been recorded by Renegade, Commandment, Emerging Market, and Chief Wallabee. And while Golden Tempo did improve, his win was more likely a reflection of race shape, and below-form efforts by several principles, than an indication that he is now the leader of the pack. He seems a very obvious bet-against.

Good luck, and enjoy the big day!

[Tinky @Tinky47flat]

@alanmLevy1 Thanks Alan.

[Tinky @Tinky47flat]

‡

The Heart of the Matter

Louis Masry, the author of the embedded post, has been regularly producing posts critical of the industry for several months now. I have occasionally responded to them when he was off-base on facts, but more broadly I have found his focus, like that of Mike @RepoleStable , on The Jockey Club, and to a lesser extent the Breeders' Cup, to have dubious.

I say that not because those organizations don't warrant criticism – they do. And both Louis and Mike have repeatedly made a number of accurate related observations and criticisms. My problem is that they have focussed on those organizations as if The Jockey Club in particular were somehow similar to the type of powerful, central authorities that are found in every major sport (e.g. a league Commissioner, etc.).

That is not, and never was the case. TJC functions primarily as the registrar of the breed. Yes, it does other things as well, but there was never any pretense that it could, or would even attempt to lead and discipline the industry in anything like the manner that the NBA or NFL Commissioners do.

Even if they wanted to, it should be obvious that they lack the required power to do so. Back in 2020, The Jockey Club announced that it had adopted a rule limiting the annual breeding of individual stallions to 140 mares. Soon after, a lawsuit was filed by Spendthrift, Three Chimneys and Coolmore, which, according to TDN, "collectively stood 16 stallions who bred over 140 mares in 2020".

Ultimately, TJC backed down, and rescinded the rule. So, given that it was unable to discipline the very part of the industry from which most of its power derives, it should be clear that the organization is nothing like a true central authority.

Which brings us to the heart of the matter. Louis has finally touched on the single biggest problem facing the industry – the lack of a powerful, central, authoritative body. But any suggestion that such a body is likely to be created, strikes me as being naïve, if not entirely unrealistic.

Masry's Westlake Stable has been active since 2015. Some of us have been calling out the need for such a body for 20+ years prior to that. The industry's long-standing failure to create such a body, and the associated lack of foresight, was, sadly, par for the course. But the problem has been compounded as power has consolidated over the decades, and commercialism, most overtly reflected through the breed-to-sell paradigm, has made it increasingly unlikely that the major "stakeholders" might ever allow an independent body to make decisions that could adversely impact their own short-term financial interests.

If all of the important stakeholders in the racing industry were to actually be consulted, and have meaningful input and influence, there would indeed be a basis for optimism. But much like broader American society, in which the pretense that voting leads to an equitable society has been largely exposed as propaganda, there is virtually no chance that a racing industry might appoint, or elect a commissioner who wasn't primarily beholden to the richest and most powerful factions.

[WESTLAKE RACING STABLE @westlakeracing]

DID YOU KNOW?

Every major professional sport in America has a commissioner.

The NFL has Roger Goodell.

MLB has Rob Manfred.

The NBA has Adam Silver.

Thoroughbred racing?

No commissioner.

No single person accountable for growing the sport.

No single person accountable for attracting new fans.

No single person accountable for owner retention.

No single person accountable for responding to industry crises.

Instead, racing has dozens of organizations, hundreds of board members, endless committees, and countless meetings.

Yet when handle declines, foal crops shrink, owners leave, or major industry controversies erupt, everyone points somewhere else.

Responsibility is everywhere. ACCOUNTABILITY IS NOWHERE.

Horse racing doesn’t have a money problem. We know there’s plenty of money sitting on the sidelines in investments.

GUESS WHAT? THEY HAVE A LEADERSHIP PROBLEM.

THE INDUSTRY HAS NOW CAUGHT ON.

IT’S TIME FOR OUR SPORT TO MOVE TO A COMMISSIONER MODEL.

REFORM IS COMING! Repost and speak out.

@jockeyclub
@BreedersCup

[Tinky @Tinky47flat]

@alanmLevy1 He and I go way back, and did some handicapping together online before he worked for NYRA.

[Tinky @Tinky47flat]

There is no disadvantage to casinos operating independently. The pool of customers is huge, and the competition is healthy. Racing has, in cotrast, suffered from its fractured nature for decades, and that includes different state rules and regulations.

HISA has greatly simplified and homogenized the safety and welfare aspects, with tangibly positive results. Given a central authority, other aspects of the game could be regulated, or disciplined, if you prefer, and the game would benefit as a result.

[Tinky @Tinky47flat]

I have never suggested that hiring, or electing an individual, was going to solve major problems. That's why I almost invariably use the phrase "central, authoritative body".

Every major league owner is incorporated in some way, and in different states. So again, they are not as dissimilar as you suggested.

[Tinky @Tinky47flat]

Sure, but is disingenuous to even imply that it has ever had either the scope or power of a true authoritative body.

Would the industry be in better shape today if only TJC (and BC) had spent more money on aftercare, or some other issue? Yes, it would obviously be best if those orgs. were to spend money as wisely as possible. But even that hypothetical wouldn't have put a meaningful dent in the sharp declines over recent decades, as aftercare (for example) was not close to being a primary cause.

[Tinky @Tinky47flat]

Nonsense. No one is suggesting that Quarter horses and Trotters be included in some all-encompassing horse racing authority. While Thoroughbred racing doesn't share a league structure, and that is an important distinction, it is similar to major sports in other important respects.

In both cases far-sighted tactics and strategies are crucial to long-term growth. And the wildly disparate trajectories or racing vs. the NFL and NBA, etc., hammer home the point. Such tactics and strategies are developed and implemented by central authorities, the likes of which does not exist in the racing industry.

The same could be said of discipline, which plays a crucial role in how the retail customers react to the sport. Racing has been deeply fractured for many decades, and, as The Jockey Club's failed attempt to place a cap on mares bred in 2020 illustrates, those with significant wealth and power (e.g. large breeding farms) are able to protect their own interests even if their actions may be to the detriment of the broader industry.

I could go on, as there are plenty of other relevant examples, but if you don't see why the game has suffered badly from the lack of such an authority, then you are missing the forest for the trees.

[Tinky @Tinky47flat]

@AirportIslander Sure, BG, but wouldn't you agree that such a logical approach has long passed its expiry date?

[Tinky @Tinky47flat]

What you are saying, Sid, is that TJC is the closest thing that the industry has to an authoritative central body. That is true, but it's also a far cry from the real thing, either in terms of scope, power, and/or the ability to impose far-sighted decisions that could undermine the wealth and power of the major players.

I have also defended TJC when dubious assertions have been made, on the basis of the important role that they played in the creation of HISA, and funding 5 Stones. But the former was an anomalous achievement which required political maneuvering, in the sense that building a consensus was required, and it wasn't easy for serious stakeholders to argue, at least compellingly, that the industry wouldn't benefit from centralization of the "Integrity & Welfare" of the industry.

The latter was accomplished largely behind the scenes, with the only real risk being the loss of TJC money had no meaningful results been produced. Again, I agree that they deserve credit for the (creative) move, but it was a private investigative company, and the resulting indictments and convictions were due primarily to Federal prosecutions. As you know, the racing industry has a notoriously poor record of self-enforcement, and should, ideally be capable of much better "in-house".

[Tinky @Tinky47flat]

@Pirateforlife11 For sure, and the BC's war chest is ridiculously large.

[Tinky @Tinky47flat]

I wouldn't say that "launders" is an accurate representation, but I do think that there are better uses for the money.

As I said, I believe that both Orgs. deserve to be criticized. But I would also argue that it is both misleading, and a dubious tactic to suggest that TJC has anything like the power to "lead" the industry in the way that a true central authority could.

[Tinky @Tinky47flat]

@Money_Mike_23 Lucky man! I'm sure you'll enjoy it.

I used to spend the full meet at Saratoga every year, but haven't been there for some time now.

[Tinky @Tinky47flat]

@Money_Mike_23 Thanks Mike. I've been travellinf for a couple of days, but I will look over the card, and see if I can put something useful together.

[Tinky @Tinky47flat]

Particularly sad that he was likely not a regular user, and OD'd on exceptionally pure cocaine. From the LA Times :

"[Maryland’s chief medical examiner] said that the autopsy conducted on Bias’ body showed no evidence that Bias was a long-term user of cocaine and that it was 'possible' that the fatal ingestion was the All-American’s first encounter with the drug."

"The autopsy revealed that the drug taken by Bias was unadulterated, indicating that he had obtained 'dealer-level quality' cocaine, said Howard Silverman, acting head of the state Drug Abuse Administration."

[Tinky @Tinky47flat]

@j_c_domingues An absolute classic. And it spawned one of my favorite covers ever, Incognito live in London, featuring Mario Biondi and Vanessa Haynes...

https://t.co/H4C1JZFRjG

[Tinky @Tinky47flat]

Bright Picture, sans aucun doute.

[Tinky @Tinky47flat]

Nice article.

As for this:

Ingordo added. “I don’t know why every stud announcement brings out cries that the horse is done and being whisked away to the farm.”

'tis a mystery. 😀