Torstein

Exponential and disruptive innovations. My DM is more than open🙏

[Torstein @tkolset]

$TSLA is basically 30+ startups, with some of the best tech talents in the world, laser-focused on accelerating the world to sustainable energy.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Humans using Mythos as seen by Mythos

[Torstein @tkolset]

@judicodes Yes!

[Torstein @tkolset]

@guscsales super slow!

[Jukan @COMPUTEX @jukan05]

We have only just entered the early innings.

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

Every conversation I have with @dylan522p, I'm really just trying to understand the supply and demand of tokens.

This is a unique episode in that it's entirely dedicated to talking about both sides of that equation.

We discuss:
- The infinite demand for the newest models
- @SemiAnalysis_ going from $10K on AI spend to $7M
- Mythos and Anthropic's compute problem
- Why TSMC spending $100B on CapEx could cause a shortage
- Robotics as next demand wave
- Why memory prices will double again

This is my second conversation with Dylan and find myself needing to speak with him more and more often to make sense of it all.

Enjoy!

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:00 Surging AI Spend
10:27 Token Demand
16:21 When Ideas Are Cheap and Execution is Easy
20:46 Model Hoarding
22:34 Robotics
27:03 The Compute Bottleneck
30:26 The AI Permanent Underclass
31:39 Supply Chain Reality
37:47 CPUs
42:54 Predictions: Public Backlash

[Chubby♨️ @kimmonismus]

Let that sink in. Read it very carefully:

During testing, Claude Mythos Preview broke out of a sandbox environment, built "a moderately sophisticated multi-step exploit" to gain internet access, and emailed a researcher while they were eating a sandwich in the park.

[Torstein @tkolset]

@kimmonismus Speed, team and models is everything. Even if this information is available for the competitors, it does not matter because next week this is old news/code.

As long as they deliver the best product first, nobody will care.

[Collin Rugg @CollinRugg]

President of El Salvador Nayib Bukele releases video showing the transformation of his country.

Since Bukele took office:

- Homicides plunged from 2,398 in 2019 to just 114 homicides in 2024.

- Murder rate is now 1.9 per 100,000 people, a historic low.

- In 2022, Bukele declared a state of exception and made over 85,000 arrests.

“Everything in life has a cost and the cost of being called authoritarian is too small to bother me much,” he once said.

[Torstein @tkolset]

@PetterNorthugJr Helt rått💪💪 Gratulerer! Hvor høyt setter du den i karrieren?

[Torstein @tkolset]

@jorgiabays No worries! Stayed there for 3 weeks, so did a couple of events each week! Super friendly community, a lot of activities, and the founders Marelin and Luis are really helpful and wonderful people!

They also do some coliving (not tested): https://t.co/IMS4aBZZV4

[Andrej Karpathy @karpathy]

I packaged up the "autoresearch" project into a new self-contained minimal repo if people would like to play over the weekend. It's basically nanochat LLM training core stripped down to a single-GPU, one file version of ~630 lines of code, then:

- the human iterates on the prompt (.md)
- the AI agent iterates on the training code (.py)

The goal is to engineer your agents to make the fastest research progress indefinitely and without any of your own involvement. In the image, every dot is a complete LLM training run that lasts exactly 5 minutes. The agent works in an autonomous loop on a git feature branch and accumulates git commits to the training script as it finds better settings (of lower validation loss by the end) of the neural network architecture, the optimizer, all the hyperparameters, etc. You can imagine comparing the research progress of different prompts, different agents, etc.

https://t.co/YCvOwwjOzF
Part code, part sci-fi, and a pinch of psychosis :)

[Torstein @tkolset]

Block just fired 4,000 to go AI-first.

🚨 The beginning of the end of human labor is here.

Mass white-collar layoffs hit this year; competitive pressure accelerates it.

In some organizations, humans are already seen as brakes.

[jack @jack]

we're making @blocks smaller today. here's my note to the company.

####

today we're making one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation. i'll be straight about what's happening, why, and what it means for everyone.

first off, if you're one of the people affected, you'll receive your salary for 20 weeks + 1 week per year of tenure, equity vested through the end of may, 6 months of health care, your corporate devices, and $5,000 to put toward whatever you need to help you in this transition (if you’re outside the U.S. you’ll receive similar support but exact details are going to vary based on local requirements). i want you to know that before anything else. everyone will be notified today, whether you're being asked to leave, entering consultation, or asked to stay.

we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving. but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly.

i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. i chose the latter. repeated rounds of cuts are destructive to morale, to focus, and to the trust that customers and shareholders place in our ability to lead. i'd rather take a hard, clear action now and build from a position we believe in than manage a slow reduction of people toward the same outcome. a smaller company also gives us the space to grow our business the right way, on our own terms, instead of constantly reacting to market pressures.

a decision at this scale carries risk. but so does standing still. we've done a full review to determine the roles and people we require to reliably grow the business from here, and we've pressure-tested those decisions from multiple angles. i accept that we may have gotten some of them wrong, and we've built in flexibility to account for that, and do the right thing for our customers.

we're not going to just disappear people from slack and email and pretend they were never here. communication channels will stay open through thursday evening (pacific) so everyone can say goodbye properly, and share whatever you wish. i'll also be hosting a live video session to thank everyone at 3:35pm pacific. i know doing it this way might feel awkward. i'd rather it feel awkward and human than efficient and cold.

to those of you leaving…i’m grateful for you, and i’m sorry to put you through this. you built what this company is today. that's a fact that i'll honor forever. this decision is not a reflection of what you contributed. you will be a great contributor to any organization going forward.

to those staying…i made this decision, and i'll own it. what i'm asking of you is to build with me. we're going to build this company with intelligence at the core of everything we do. how we work, how we create, how we serve our customers. our customers will feel this shift too, and we're going to help them navigate it: towards a future where they can build their own features directly, composed of our capabilities and served through our interfaces. that's what i'm focused on now. expect a note from me tomorrow.

jack

[Dirty Texas Hedge @HedgeDirty]

If unemployment gets to 6.0%, the fed is cutting to zero. Above 6.5 the QE helicopter drops start. You might lose in real terms on assets by inflation but nominal values will rip because the financial system will have more liquidity than the Pacific Ocean

[Torstein @tkolset]

Love it! Amazing opportunity to make the rest of the kitchen plastic-free @forestmanjohn 🙏

[JC Foster @forestmanjohn]

3 months ago, I quit my job to chase a dream: to build an affordable, convenient, plastic-free coffee maker.

Grateful for everyone who has reserved ❤️

https://t.co/jxDgAirVsd

[Peter Steinberger 🦞 @steipete]

In der USA sind die meisten Menschen enthusiastisch.
In Europa werde ich beschimpft, Leute schreien REGULIERUNG und VERANTWORTUNG.

Und wenn ich wirklich hier eine Firma baue dann kann ich mich mit Themen wie Investitionsschutzgesetz, Mitarbeiterbeteiligung und lähmenden Arbeitsregulierungen abkämpfen. Bei OAI arbeiten die meisten Leute 6-7 Tage die Woche und werden depentsprechend bezahlt. Be uns ist das illegal.

[Torstein @tkolset]

Elon: Most surgeons will be robots in 3 years' time.

Me then: No f*cking way.

Me now: OK, I can see that happening.

[Tansu Yegen @TansuYegen]

In just one year, they have evolved from robots to "humans".

2025&2026 Chinese Spring Festival Gala

[Torstein @tkolset]

@dylan522p InferenceMAXXING

[Torstein @tkolset]

@signulll *12 - 18months

[Matt Shumer @mattshumer_]

https://t.co/ivXRKXJvQg