Musta T

Mediocre investor mostly biotech and crypto. Opinions are my own, don't follow my lead, I usually fail. My only political agenda is common sense.

[Musta T @tmustaj]

“Everybody has to start somewhere. You have your whole future ahead of you. Perfection doesn't happen right away.”
- Haruki Murakami

[Musta T @tmustaj]

@OivaKuoma Itse tein saman. Siinä huomasi kontrastin, että kuinka loistava Andor oli ja kuinka surkea kötöstys Rogue One oli.

[Musta T @tmustaj]

@aleabitoreddit Absolutely brutal for the short sellers and they deserve it 😎

[Musta T @tmustaj]

@aleabitoreddit $SIVE

[Musta T @tmustaj]

@aleabitoreddit Yes I did thank you. Did you check Obducat? Interested to hear your take on it.

[Musta T @tmustaj]

@aleabitoreddit Meanwhile in Sweden... https://t.co/Mm25G06bif

[Seedy19 @seedy19tron]

More M&A $CPRX

[Musta T @tmustaj]

@MeetsLight @hirvelanjuho

[Musta T @tmustaj]

@Jeppez420 Pics or didn't happen 😄

[Musta T @tmustaj]

@OivaKuoma Se on GBX valuutassa eli penni sterling. Anna mennä vaan!

[Musta T @tmustaj]

@aleabitoreddit Have you analyzed maritime insurance companies and how they can profit from this?

[Adam May @A_May_MD]

$NVO is in the midst of the fastest drug launch of all time with oral Wegovy over the last 2 months. Not the fastest for $NVO. The fastest for any drug company ever.

Yet, during that same time period, their stock has (*checks notes*)...experienced its sharpest decline ever...EVER!

A fascinating case study is developing here over pricing in investor expectations and the extremes to which sentiment can swing.

Not only has $NVO had its worst stock crash *ever* (down >40% since late January) right in the middle of the fastest drug launch of all time...

...$NVO has now round tripped its entire obesity run...as if the whole obesity craze never even happened!

The stock was in the $40s on the day that injectable Wegovy launched back in 2021, now 5 years later it struggles to maintain the mid $30s. If you go back 10 years from today, the stock is up only ~30% over the last decade, getting absolutely trounced by any index you want to put it up against.

All of that with the society-altering obesity craze in between.

Coming back to the recent move, it's been bizarre to see investors' negative reaction to the cagrisema vs tirzepatide study reading out negative for cagrisema when...anyone who even remotely analyzed existing cagrisema data had to have known that study never had a *CHANCE* at hitting. The fact that the markets could be *that* inefficient by pricing in so much value for that cagrisema study is almost too much of a stretch for me to believe...

Investors have focused on the cargisema study not meeting (apparently somehow still very bullish???) expectations while largely ignoring the oral Wegovy launch that has been breaking every expectation that they had previously set for it...Negative sentiment begets negative sentiment, sometimes directly in the face of objective reality.

Like I've mentioned, pharma isn't really my specialty, but this will be an interesting case study for me to continue to learn from. It'll probably be a good one for the pharma industry at large down the road given how extreme the changes in sentiment have been.

In the meantime, I am buying the Novo dip, though my pharma trades tend to be very short term largely because I use margin to conduct them.

So, will the nonstop $NVO stock crash reverse soon? IDK, but owning a drug company at 5 year lows that is also in the middle of the literal fastest drug launch of all time...does seem a bit asymmetric 😅

[U.S. Central Command @CENTCOM]

At 11:03 p.m. ET, March 1, three U.S. F-15E Strike Eagles flying in support of Operation Epic Fury went down over Kuwait due to an apparent friendly fire incident.

Read more:
https://t.co/i2y3Q3vo2E

[Musta T @tmustaj]

@TomTomKrus @doepke_michel Bold statement at this point that CagriSema will be a marginal product commercially. Like NVO will just rollover and give up the market to LLY. 🤦

[NOTRELOAD AI @notreload_ai]

$ZIM [Hapag-Lloyd is acquiring Israel’s ZIM in a $4.2B cash deal at $35/share (58% premium). The merger creates the world’s 5th-largest shipping giant while a new Israeli “New ZIM” keeps vital sea routes to Israel safe.] https://t.co/eCA9ycalMZ

[Musta T @tmustaj]

@JariValtanen M-15, kova hahmo. 💪

[Adam May @A_May_MD]

Hahaha ok so $HIMS is now not just scamming pharma companies for their IP, they’re also scamming their own patients too!

They’re making a semaglutide pill *without* the (proprietary) SNAC formulation that $NVO uses to prevent the peptide from being totally dissolved/digested right when you swallow it. YOUR STOMACH BREAKS DOWN PEPTIDES WHEN YOU SWALLOW THEM. $NVO uses a proprietary technology called SNAC to make their oral formulation more bioavailable. $HIMS cannot.

Patients are buying a dud here, thinking it’s similar to the real deal. SCAM.

It’ll be biologically active, sure, but bioavailability for this is going to be almost nothing.

Also, this is still a *ton* of peptide to manufacture = BAD margins.

25 mg of peptide per day is >70x more peptide of the max injectable dose!!!

$HIMS selling this at a discount to what $NVO is means their margins are going to be razor thin.

Of all the fake bullshit pump and dumps that $HIMS has pulled, this one might be the fakest and most bullshit of all. Not in the least part because they pivoted to just full blown scamming their customers (IMO), pitching an unprotected oral peptide as similar to what $NVO is selling. It is NOT even remotely equivalent.

Shorted on the pump this morning, average mid $27s. $HIMS deserves to finish red today with the rest of the market.

[Musta T @tmustaj]

@biodoctor77 @jfais20 @semodough This is exactly what I was thinking. Doesn't make sense for Sanofi to gamble on that.

[Musta T @tmustaj]

@BioStocks A beat and strong guidance, still no one cares, what is wrong with this co?

[Musta T @tmustaj]

@seedy19tron Clearly not worried that it has gone up 4% from Q3? Numbers look great but this and the lower new patient start forms compared to previous Q worries me a bit.