Tom Millard

Betting on politics since before we all went mad. Can’t be arsed tweeting nowadays.

[Tom Millard @tommillard]

https://t.co/V17fDgr8jc

[Tom Millard @tommillard]

@BeirutCalling @aaronjmate Mate is a Kremlin stooge and genocide denier. Why amplify his bad-faith arguments?

[Tom Millard @tommillard]

@TempletonPeckJr We don’t want to regain the initiative TP. We wanted to be wrong. But it was really obvious we weren’t.

[Tom Millard @tommillard]

@admcrlsn

[Tom Millard @tommillard]

@TempletonPeckJr What do you think he wants?

[Tom Millard @tommillard]

@TempletonPeckJr

[Tom Millard @tommillard]

@TempletonPeckJr Agree, he’s a fraud but he knows his audience.

[Tom Millard @tommillard]

@Ramblin_Gambler @Domahhhh @NateSilver538 300/1 was it? Fair enough. I agree with Domer it was a pretty big flaw though. Anyone laying the 2.5% would have to be pretty confident the “realignment” that NYT/Siena kept hinting at was phantom.

[Tom Millard @tommillard]

@Domahhhh @NateSilver538 Yep, he even suggested he’d “take a bet” on it at 500/1, as if any layer would offer anywhere close to those odds.

[Tom Millard @tommillard]

@TempletonPeckJr Ohio potentially a harbinger. Otherwise she’s struggling.

[Tom Millard @tommillard]

@TempletonPeckJr You won’t be laughing when he’s appointed head of poll analysis in the next Trump administration.

[Tom Millard @tommillard]

@GaetenD Slept on it but I’m still struggling to reconcile Selzer/NYT. Either we have energised white collar suburban women that are being missed by NYT, or Selzer’s findings are unique to IA (abortion law) or phantom. Any thoughts on that?

[Tom Millard @tommillard]

@TempletonPeckJr Sense.

[Tom Millard @tommillard]

@TempletonPeckJr No, Putin isn’t directly pulling Trump’s strings. He doesn’t need to. They’re already aligned. If Trump doesn’t undermine Nato and let it wither on the vine I’ll happily admit I’m wrong.

[Tom Millard @tommillard]

@TempletonPeckJr Well if it was it’s worked very well. First term he was surrounded by smart people who understand geopolitics. This time you’d have Colby plus about a hundred Douglas McGregors.

[Tom Millard @tommillard]

@VVeedla @TempletonPeckJr Talking about the whole map. This doesn’t show any realignment.

[Tom Millard @tommillard]

@TempletonPeckJr I’d agree with you if it was a smaller gap. Someone will be wrong.