TomThomas

[TomThomas @tomthomas90]

Some more thoughts.

Venezuela played out and probably inspired belief that an attack on Iran would have a similar outcome.

Iran has proved more resilient than most in the west expected. The protests prior to attacks probably helped shape the narrative that regime change was likely and easy to achieve.

The world is now affected in different ways. Each day that the conflict (or now blockade) continues leads to all risks increasing.

Europe/UK biggest risk is access to energy followed by higher prices pushing inflation up. Previous wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have now also ensured that there is little appetite to be involved regardless of how hard US pushes. This risk is compounded by their sanctions on Russia.

Iran risk is regime change and death of individuals. Facing death appears to not faze them and so the question comes down to whether they can outlast the pain being placed on others. Ironically Iran is benefiting financially from the conflict due to higher oil prices and tolls. Whether this is enough to not commit to a ceasefire is anyone's guess. Regardless, to happen, the ceasefire will probably need some type of sweetener which they didn't have before.

China has sat on the sidelines for the past six months. Imo it is feeling some pain but far less than the rest of the world and so its position globally strengthens. It buys oil from Iran and Russia likely at cut prices. The blockade by US of Hormuz creates the first possible flashpoint - what happens when a Chinese flagged vessel passes through. If I were Iran I'd want this to play out. Once one vessel passes through, blockade threat is no longer effective.

US is dominant power of the world however this conflict causes serious challenges. Very little appetite for boots on the ground however without this there is only two scenarios: ceasefire or continued bombardment and global economic pain. Energy supply not an issue and US oil companies will be benefiting greatly. Pain is felt mainly by consumer and smaller businesses through higher prices. There is also a secondary challenge and that's that funding will be massively reduced as lots of it flowed from middle east. Not because they don't want to invest (AI investment mainly via US) but because middle easy has less money (oil sales down) + need to spend more domestically (military defence + infrastructure repairs). This is important because we're expecting three big IPOs (space X, anthropic and OpenAI).

Backdrop is also intriguing. Many world leaders unsure what solution is and don't know president's next move. Vice president (up until peace talks) has been in the shadows - my guess is that getting VP to lead peace talks was a way to make him part of conflict + helped reassure economy that ceasefire was serious. For vice President there is a challenge, ceasefire and whether its obtained will now be put on him. Probably hardest part of first four months of 2026 and could make or break his bid to be president.

I lean we get ceasefire which probably benefits Iran more than most would like. Will still be one that president and vice president can hail as a win. Main reason being the unwillingness to be drawn into long conflict with boots on ground.

If conflict continues beyond ceasefire deadline then I think world economy may really get hit as bad as COVID.

Thanks for reading.

[TomThomas @tomthomas90]

Some thoughts today.

The world is in an increasingly uncertain phase of human history. The exponential development of AI means AGI is creeping closer and those close appear to be willing to do anything to reach it first. This plus an ongoing new cold war between the West and China/Russia means what happens a couple of months from now, let alone years, is hard to predict.

USD is devaluing and will likely continue to do so as trade war deepens (89% of global trade conducted in dollars) and leads to digital yuan being used more.

Gold is reaching new ATHs daily which, imo, feeds into dollar devaluation as more countries switch their reserves focus (59% of world foreign reserves held in USD)

Digital currencies are also now starting to open up the possibility of a new currency flows, using rails that don't involve the western banking system and that are underpinned by Chinese tech. This probably leads to a bipolar monetary order.

Long term power will lie with whoever reaches AGI first AND has access to the necessary natural resources to power and build it. Interestingly, China having relatively large control on certain rare earth minerals is it's ace card in any trade war.

The above probably pushes countries to take drastic actions. China and the USA.

Venezuela has access to large amounts of natural resources. Other countries (Iran, Saudi Arabia, China and Russia) are less accessible. This morning's headlines are already pointing to the direction that we're possibly headed.

Taiwan is important because of the chips it manufactures. It's also land that China contests is it's own.

Now add in the fact that retirees are living longer (ai will advance this further) and less babies are being born. We're approaching a point in time where the retired outnumber the working and, in turn, can no longer afford to be supported.

We have western economies that are already struggling and voters, frustrated by the lack of development and change, moving towards parties that are more insular. Parties that promise more nationalistic foreign policies. Ultimately leading to not only a divided world but also divided countries. This is the case for every western country (can't think of many exceptions).

All of these factors, imo, mean that the world as we know it will stop. If we're lucky, maybe somehow AI saves us and we do enter into a period of abundance. If we're unlucky, society as we know it breaks.

In both scenarios, bitcoin will increase in value alongside gold, and resources that are finite.

[TomThomas @tomthomas90]

@ldzcrypto @Polymarket @PolymarketSport its because your indivudal bet winning increases your stake for the second bet

[TomThomas @tomthomas90]

@i_am_jackis Cheers @i_am_jackis - hope you and the family are well first and foremost.

My only worry with where we're at is that any weakness in stocks feels like it could push us past that 60K level. Here's hoping for a monthly close above 74K!

[TomThomas @tomthomas90]

@CallumOnCrypto Keep going mate - what you're doing is working. Stay the path

[TomThomas @tomthomas90]

@Doonhamer_ You trading on perps as well?

[TomThomas @tomthomas90]

@Doonhamer_ think the amounts before were possibly unsustainable... I could see them doing 1 mil for semis and final possibly

[TomThomas @tomthomas90]

@armaniferrante Totally agree with all of this (13 years policy) other than not worth their time/energy. My guess it's more because they're unable to comply without fundementaly changing their business (and in turn affecting their established userbase) which is a risk in its own right

[TomThomas @tomthomas90]

@Doonhamer_ @Polymarket I lean that it's actually much earlier purely because the team has been so slow with the world cup. Feels like their attention is on something else (surely)

[TomThomas @tomthomas90]

@Doonhamer_ @Polymarket If it comes later than Christmas then I think it has missed the boat imo

[TomThomas @tomthomas90]

@notthreadguy What if you're over 18 now?

[TomThomas @tomthomas90]

@edward_yu_var Yep, then longer term any private company. Probably the bigger impact (imo) on entire financial landscape as means investors have an indicator of whether a valuation is realistic or not. Also probably kills a lot more companies earlier (which is a negative).

[TomThomas @tomthomas90]

@DannyT1502 Morocco to win with a view of their odds rising to 5 cents if they qualify from groups..

[TomThomas @tomthomas90]

@MoneyPrinter0x @notthreadguy Surely he merges as his comp is partly tied to valuation I think?

[TomThomas @tomthomas90]

@IamZeroIka Sorry to hear you've received abuse Zzero - I hadn't realised. Genuinely think you provide so much support and alpha - way beyond most

[TomThomas @tomthomas90]

@piovincenzo_ @piovincenzo_ do you have a lean?

[TomThomas @tomthomas90]

@Doonhamer_ @ScotlandNT lol

[TomThomas @tomthomas90]

@sergio_tesla_ @CryptoJelleNL cheers Sergio

[TomThomas @tomthomas90]

@sergio_tesla_ @CryptoJelleNL @sergio_tesla_ wouldn't this be enough to justify buying here?

[TomThomas @tomthomas90]

@Cbb0fe @HoodieChicken Ironically this is also the biggest risk imo short term as we know the establishment will come calling

[TomThomas @tomthomas90]

If you look at the FCA stance on crypto more broadly in the UK, the bigger surprise is that it has taken this long for them to publish this..

It's the reason every product, sale and launch is blocked in the UK. Just not worth the hassle. Also, bluntly, we don't natter. Sec does.

[Kyle Samani @KyleSamani]

The first of many

https://t.co/cdpzAZ2iOL

[TomThomas @tomthomas90]

@NitroOGFX Cheers mate