tony bodom

death metal degen, trading journal, not financial advice (recovering lunatic here). listen to children of bodom

[tony bodom @tonybodom]

@pennycheck @willydotnet from longtime hockey fan, these finals have
been absolutely epic

[tony bodom @tonybodom]

@SJCapitalInvest @DeepValueBagger thanks for sharing all those articles! they were really helpful for me. maybe you can reactivate at some point in the future if things change.

[⚽️📡 @pennycheck]

In a mkt highly focused
1. Bottlenecks
2. Drones

$AMPX feels critically under appreciated in this moment
As the only pure play high energy density drone battery maker that already has validation from hundreds of customers many recurring that include tier 1 drone makers including AVAV TDY Airbus among others

[tony bodom @tonybodom]

@Stock_Pursuit audio stopped midway

[tony bodom @tonybodom]

@qthomp @fejau_inc @Tyler_Neville_ @ForwardGuidance

[Kevin MD | X @kev4evaa]

Learn how @konn3cted is the ultimate community empowerment tool! 🧵👇

I'm Kevin the CEO, & as psychiatrist I see the loneliness epidemic every day

I self funded & built Konn3ct to make the world a better place, by making it easy to bring together like minded people 💚

[BrianMcGrath @brianmcgrath]

Amazing interview with @RaoulGMI and @EMostaque!
Some takeaways from this conversation:

1. AI's (LLMs) use tokens that are equivalent to 1.3 words per token.
2. The avg person speaks 20,000 tokens / day.
3. The avg person thinks about 200,000 tokens / day.
4. The latest Grok 4 model costs $0.50 per 1 million tokens.

So the current LLMs can do the equivalent of week's worth of knowledge work for $0.50 with an IQ higher than the avg person!

...and they will only get better. Things are changing rapidly.

[tony bodom @tonybodom]

@Tyler_Neville_ yes please get @jvisserlabs on the pod!

[Stock Talk @stocktalkweekly]

Lots of investors don't know the basics of chart-reading and are leaving money on the table as a consequence.

Don't be lazy.

Here's Charting 101 in a few paragraphs:

1. Open chart
2. Turn on volume
3. Turn on 9/21 ema and 50/100/200 sma

If you are focusing on swing-trading and/or investing, the purpose of the daily chart is for your entries primarily. For your exits, you should focus on the weekly chart. Your entries should be as flat against the short-term moving averages (9/21ema) as possible. Offensive buys off the daily chart, conservative buys off the weekly chart.

Generally speaking, seeing a lot of buy volume is good & seeing a lot of sell volume is bad. But if there is high volume and price barely moves, that can be a bad thing. Highest volume ever is always worth noting.

For swing trades, do not get faked out by daily 21ema forfeits on otherwise extremely strong or parabolic stocks. Look to the weekly 9ema and ask yourself if you can stomach a drop to the weekly 21ema. If you can't, then the weekly 9ema is the stop for your position. And so on. For multi-year term positions/investments, you only need to be worried if you see a severe monthly breakdown. Long-term buys on quality names at the 200sma tend to have excellent multi-year return.

Remember, the chart is a tool and not a bible.

Simple rules. Simple charting. No need for rocket science.

[rafi_0x @Rafi_0x]

ngl this last post from @avici made me even more bullish

They basically demoed their Onchain Mortgage Process:

1⃣ Users connect employment + financial profiles (FICO score, Plaid)
2⃣ Data is turned into ZK proofs, so your financial health is verified without exposing raw info

3⃣ Avici generates a Trust Score, then matches you with the best DeFi mortgage pool offers (loan size, APY, terms)

4⃣ Repayments are structured in stables like $USDC, tracked transparently onchain with history, score, and progress

Why this matters? Because banks’ most profitable business = mortgages. Avici is taking that onchain, replacing banks with DeFi pools, letting investors globally earn yield from repayments while borrowers get transparent, borderless loans

And the ZK angle is huge: lenders know you qualify, but never see the raw docs. Everything is private, verifiable, and shared onchain with no hidden fees. On top of that, Avici makes it instant approvals instead of weeks of paperwork...

Traditionally, mortgage-backed securities are only for institutions, Avici fractionalizes access so any DeFi user can provide liquidity. That’s a multi-trillion dollar market being unlocked 👀

Better UX than banks. Real revenue. Already live. Built through @MetaDAOProject Futarchy

$AVICI anywhere below $10 feels free 🤝

[Mr. Anderson @Truecrypto]

Last Friday delivered one of the worst altcoin wipeouts in crypto history, and the post-mortem of it has been a whisper.

When LUNA blew up, it owned the news. When FTX collapsed, it ruled the cycle. When we had our COVID crash, Crypto Twitter couldn’t stop talking about how we almost went to zero and what saved us.

But this time, a week later, there’s near silence. Instead, we’re told it was just a tweet. That’s not serious analysis. Yes, late Friday, Trump dropped a trade-war headline after U.S. markets closed: 100% tariffs on China and new export controls. That was the spark.

But a single tweet doesn’t send alts down 70% in minutes or vaporize entire portfolios within an hour.
The violence came from structure, from a breakdown deep in crypto’s plumbing.

During the flush, Ethena’s synthetic dollar, USDe (ticker USDe), printed as low as $0.65 on Binance while holding near $1 on other venues. This wasn’t a global depeg. It appears to have been a Binance-local pricing failure, an oracle and order-book divergence that instantly slashed collateral values for users on Binance’s unified margin system.

When your collateral is repriced that far down on a single venue, everything built on it collapses.

On Binance’s unified / cross-margin system, traders can post multiple assets, including USDe and wrapped tokens, as collateral across all their open positions.

When Binance’s feed suddenly marks USDe at $0.65 instead of $1.00, the user’s collateral value shrinks, maintenance ratios blow up, and the liquidation engine begins selling their other assets, often high-beta alts, into an already collapsing market.

Those forced sells push prices lower, triggering more liquidations across the exchange and, through arbitrage, across the entire crypto market.

Example:

Imagine a trader with $200,000 total equity.

$50,000 in USDe collateral

$150,000 in long altcoin positions

Binance marks USDe at $0.65, so that $50,000 becomes $32,500; In this case, $17,500 in margin cushion vanishes instantly.

The system detects the shortfall and auto-liquidates part of the alt positions to rebalance. Those sells slam into thin order books, driving alt prices down another 20–30% almost instantly.

Now the trader’s remaining alts, which weren’t yet liquidated, are worth even less, cutting collateral ratios further and triggering the next round of liquidations.

Each liquidation dump pushes prices down for everyone else using the same assets as collateral, igniting a chain reaction. By the time the loop finishes, hundreds of millions in positions are forcibly sold, and the cascade becomes self-fueling, a liquidation spiral that consumes everything in its path.

What started as a local pricing glitch becomes a global liquidity collapse.

Arthur Hayes @CryptoHayes summed it up perfectly: “USDe didn’t depeg. Binance did.”

The Ethena protocol remained solvent and over-collateralized. The problem was the venue’s internal feeds and book structure under stress.

When an exchange values collateral based on its own shallow order book instead of a broad market reference, small cracks become sinkholes.

This doesn’t absolve Ethena, any asset printing 35% below peg, even locally, shows fragility. But this wasn’t another LUNA.

It was a mechanical failure, a venue-specific collateral mispricing colliding with excessive leverage and opaque cross-margin rules. The result was one of the largest liquidation waves in crypto history, nearly $19 billion in forced unwinds within 24 hours.

That doesn’t happen from headlines. It occurs when margin engines and oracles fail under stress.

Binance has since promised to compensate affected users and rework how wrapped and synthetic assets are priced. That alone is an admission something broke. And yet, this event has been largely swept under the rug thus far.

We’ve seen bigger macro shocks before: Liberation Day, COVID, and even FTX contagion, yet none triggered alts to implode 70–99% in an hour.

This wasn’t fear. It was faulty design.

One venue’s pricing feed dislocated, collateral collapsed, and liquidation engines spread that contagion everywhere. The industry’s core issue is now undeniable: Too many opaque, venue-specific risk systems govern leverage, collateral, and liquidation.

When one breaks, the entire system pays for it. Design flaws, not tweets, keep blowing up the market.

If this reconstruction is wrong, then @binance and @cz_binance should publish the data:

Which feeds broke and when?

Which collateral assets were hair-cut, and how many users were liquidated? How is the compensation being calculated?

And @ethena should release a venue-by-venue chart showing USDe pricing, redemptions, and hedging during the event, to prove solvency and pinpoint where the break occurred.

Roughly $19 billion didn’t vanish into thin air. People were liquidated, portfolios erased, and careers ended because the pipes broke. If this wasn’t the cause, prove it. If it was, fix it.

Because headlines aren’t destroying crypto, it’s being destroyed by its own infrastructure.

This can’t be another story buried under “macro fear.” The silence is the loudest signal of all.

Systems failed. Users paid the price. And the industry owes them an explanation.

If we don’t fix the plumbing now, the following “tweet” could light the same fuse, and eventually, there might not be much left to save.

Because if a tweet can burn $19 billion, it’s not the tweet that’s the problem; it’s the system.

[tony bodom @tonybodom]

@goodalexander what about emad??

[Duncan @FloodCapital]

Here is the case for >$250 $GLXY in the next 3-7 years. Everything is lining up for them, fundamentals, the chart, and massive macro trends.

Over $124 trillion in wealth is set to be passed down to the younger generations through now till 2048 (source Cerulli). Investments in Crypto, AI and Robotics will only accelerate as the younger generation see and know these things to be the future. $GLXY is excellent exposure to 2 of these 3 themes. Paging @amitisinvesting, @StockSavvyShay, @RaoulGMI

Fundamentals (the 3 pillars of $GLXY):

The Balance Sheet:

~$3B of crypto, cash and crypto infra investments of the highest quality on their balance sheet. 2 extremely recent examples - I am pretty sure $GLXY is both an investor in $XPL and @doublezero which both launched in the past week and are trading an order of magnitude higher there last round (don't quote me on this though).

Galaxy's balance sheet is full of gems but the reporting here can make it difficult to fully understand what they own which IMO makes it not get the credit it deserves.

The Crypto Business Lines, they do literally everything crypto, the Goldman Sachs of crypto! (some highlights):

- The 15+ DAT deals Galaxy has done which will generate tons of IB fees, fees from execution, staking and custody fees, in total this could be hundreds of millions of dollars over the next couple years. Most recently they've done $FORD and others like $BMNR, $SBET, Reserve One, $KWM, $MCVT, $DDC, $LGHL, $FGNX, + more.

- Their GalaxyOne initiative which I am super excited about and they've been working on for a long time. This is Galaxy's push into a retail facing "everything app" which with the right distribution could compete with $HOOD and $COIN. This can not be understated and could completely transform the stock, allowing them to break into to a high margin retail facing business providing an array of financial services.

- A huge push for tokenization, they took the first step tokenizing $GLXY on $SOL and also have a fully owned tokenization/custody subsidiary @GK8_Security. If Galaxy can be at the forefront of equity tokenization this could be absolutely huge for them.

- Their @AllUnityStable JV in which Galxay owns 33% alongside Flow Traders and Deutsche Bank, the first fully regulated MiCA compliant EURO stablecoin. Could be the $CRCL of Europe!

The Data Center Business:

- Galaxy already has 800MW of power approved and a 15yr lease signed with CoreWeave $CRWV which should net them $1.2B/year in average annual revenues at 90% EBITDA margins.

- Galaxy also has an additional 2.7GW of power under study at their Helios campus. If they are able to get the full 3.5GW approved and contracted out on similar terms to the CoreWeave lease then they'd be generating ~$5.25B/year in average annual revenues at 90% EBITDA margins!!! (Market cap right now is only ~$13B-$3B in net balance sheet = $10B in implied equity value for both the crypto + data center business lines).

^@jonathan_mg27 from Galaxy IR notes "On data centers, the conversations were all about execution: hitting construction milestones and delivering critical IT to $CRVW on time and on budget. And everyone wants the inside scoop on when ERCOT’s review of 2.7GW of additional power at Helios will be completed. We’re working on it!"

- Management has also guided towards the first 800MW tranche of the remaining 2.7GW should be approved by ERCOT by EOY/"single digit months" if they can lease this out to a large hyperscaler like $ORCL, $GOOG, $MSFT, $AMZN, $META, etc it could be a huge accelerant/catalysts for the market appreciating the data center business more!

- Zooming out, Galaxy is building Helios which has 3.5GW of potential power, currently on-par with plans from the largest big tech/AI firms in the world.

Keep in mind these AI Data Center buildouts are completely different then data center 1.0 from companies like $DLR at a $60B market cap which has ~2.7GW of operating capacity from ~300 data centers.

These 1.0 data centers are ~10MW a site vs 3.5GW in one campus with Helios.

So it's a totally new build and Galaxy is making partnerships with leading players like Clayco & $CRWV to build to custom AI workload specs.

Galaxy expanded their power pipeline by 1GW last earnings and were evaluating "~40 BTC Mining sites" that could be converted into AI data centers.

We could literally see $GLXY become a leader in North America for AI data centers which is likely a 1T+ market over the long term given compute demand is infinite.

Look at $FRMI trading at $18B pre revenue on the guidance/aspirations of 11GW by 2038. If Fermi isn't bullshitting Galaxy should be able to easily guide to this and probably exceed it given their established position.

The chart:

Chadlord @buyerofponzi called $PLTR at $30 in Sept 2024 and now says:

"This might be my highest conviction tradfi trade since $PLTR at $20+... This is the exact same setup So I will say the same exact thing again it feels like i should go all in $GLXY for the next year"

Check out his fractal below. + $GLXY is right near ATHs - breakout soon?

Macro:

I firmly believe crypto & AI (alongside Robotics) will be the 3 largest investment trends of the next decade and Galaxy is knee deep in 2 of the 3. Feels like everything is lining up for them.

As I have said before I think a $250 target for $GLXY in the next 3-7 years is realistic given this. Look at the math on their 3.5GW alone...

3.5GW contracted out to on the same lease as $CRWV is $5.4B a year in revenues, 90% EBITDA margins = 4.86B in EBITDA * 25x multiple = $121B Enterprise Value - $26B in debt = $95B in equity value / 400M shares = $237.5/share.

This doesn't include the crypto business either!

Bonus the team at Galaxy is amazing and management continues to deliver on promises and be visionaries @novogratz @cferraro06 @austorms @brian_wright21 @jonathan_mg27 I would love guidance from them on their next earnings about the future potential/scale/plans for their data center business (like Fermi $FRMI targeting 11GW by 2038 trading at $18B pre revenue!!)

Disclosure: I am very long $GLXY! DYOR!

[Galaxy @galaxyhq]

AI’s demand for power is exploding. The U.S. grid can’t keep up.

Galaxy’s Helios campus in Texas — with 3.5 GW potential capacity — is built to power the future of AI🧵

[Danielle Shay @traderDanielle]

I joined @TheDomino today on @CNBC @PowerLunch to trade some aggressive high short float tickers that are near short squeeze levels.

$NBIS sky rocketed due to $MSFT partnership news. A break of resistance at $100 would equal more upside.

$GLXY started going today! Above $30, but especially above $35, I expect more short-covering.

$CRWV is on my watchlist, but I expect it to get going if it can get above $120.

$NBIS is found as #1 on @stockcharts proprietary SCTR rankings!

@simplertrading @TradersCodeBTT

[tony bodom @tonybodom]

@KYDNimale @taylorswift13 @solana i thought the main problem with disrupting ticketmaster is their venue lockin, venues can't just switch to other ticketing systems easily

[Konn3ct @konn3cted]

What truly brings us joy in life?

Konn3ction 💚

[tony bodom @tonybodom]

@btc_charlie 😭