 Jason Chiu

[Intl Econ Observe @IEObserve]

最近被Semianalysis點名點到的都暴跌一波，不過市場也剛好正處於漲多回檔的階段。但AI建設這波幾個明確的瓶頸基本上就是先進製程與封裝產能，記憶體儲存與Data Center的基載電力設備。

美國電網能承接新增大型負載的「餘裕（headroom）」最快將在2027年轉為負值，到2028年以後，超過半數新建資料中心將改用表後電力（Behind-The-Meter，BTM）供電，2029年單是資料中心BTM設備的市場規模就將跨越每年50GW。

這是電網供給結構跟不上算力成長速度所逼出的長期路線改變。

[Curry_TW @KotlinerBTC]

昨天發佈的$NVDA分析文，漏掉了這則重磅消息。這則消息表面上是QCOM併購150人小公司Modular。

表面上好像和輝達無關? 但實質關係重大。

Modular在上課月推出Mojo 1.0 Beta ，雖然是初代但核心功能已完整。
「Mojo 語言+MAX 平台」將會是輝達CUDA的直接威脅者，因為前者可以讓開發者寫一次程式碼，跨不同廠牌晶片運行。

同一個模型、同一個程式碼庫，可以在 NVIDIA GPU、AMD GPU、Intel、ARM、Apple Silicon、Qualcomm NPU 等不同硬體 上運行，而無需重寫。

[Curry_TW @KotlinerBTC]

https://t.co/wIk5ZKXBVi

[ Jason Chiu @torakuchiu]

@oldguardjay https://t.co/xP5F1KUocG

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The U.S. Military is currently conducting more strikes in the Strait of Hormuz area, per Axios.

This marks the second set of U.S. Military strikes since the “Memorandum of Understanding” was signed.

[ Jason Chiu @torakuchiu]

中國金融壓力 · 香港市場預警儀表板

「季線失守 + 南下歷史級流出 + 52周新低 22,518」

https://t.co/jwf2r62G8r

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Watch for the July update: MLCCs about to go 5-10x

[Jukan @ICML @jukan05]

Exclusive: Apple to Begin Foldable iPhone Mass Production in July, Hinge Problem Resolved

Apple will begin mass production of its first foldable iPhone from late July. While speculation about a launch delay recently emerged due to hinge problems, it has been confirmed that Apple is pushing ahead with a September unveiling as originally planned.

According to reporting by The Elec on the 24th, based on interviews with Apple supply chain sources in Korea and Taiwan, Apple has finalized the major specifications for the foldable iPhone, including the display, case, and mechanical components, and has entered the mass production preparation stage. Foxconn will handle production of the initial volume. A first round of trial production was carried out this past April, and mass production is expected to begin around late July. The September unveiling schedule is also expected to proceed without major issues.

Trial production is the procedure of validating the design, components, assembly process, and quality standards under actual production conditions before a new product enters mass production. It signifies that product development has passed the final validation stage and moved into the mass production preparation stage. For products like the foldable iPhone, which require multiple components such as the panel, hinge, cover glass, and frame to be precisely joined together, trial production results are a key variable for the launch schedule.

The Apple foldable iPhone uses a foldable organic light emitting diode (OLED) panel supplied by Samsung Display, along with the hinge module, cover glass, and mechanical components. Samsung Display recently received approval from Apple for the initial volume of foldable OLED modules from its Vietnam plant. It has completed mass production preparation through the module stage, in which the driver circuit, flexible printed circuit board (FPCB), and protective components are attached to the OLED panel.

The hinge for the foldable iPhone is supplied by Taiwan's Shin Zu Shing and the United States' Amphenol. They supply hinge modules made using a 3D printing method. The hinge determines the opening and closing feel when the screen is folded and unfolded, as well as the crease at the fold and the durability. Since it is a component that does not exist in ordinary bar type smartphones, it determines the level of completion of the foldable product.

It has been reported that there were in fact hinge related problems during the development process. A Taiwan industry source said, "After durability testing at the level of several million cycles, slight noise occurred in the hinge," adding that "in some assembly processes, the tolerances were larger than expected, so the defect rate rose somewhat." The source went on to add that "most of these problems have now been resolved."

Recently, observations have emerged in the industry that the launch of the foldable iPhone could be delayed due to hinge problems. The analysis that Apple could push back the actual sales timing even if it holds the September unveiling event has gained traction. Since it is the first foldable smartphone, Apple may apply strict quality standards at the last moment.

Apple also appears likely to adjust its iPhone launch strategy somewhat. With the addition of the foldable model, the central axis of the September new product unveiling event is expected to shift toward the Pro lineup and the foldable model, and there is a possibility that the standard model will be split off into a separate launch schedule.

An Apple supply chain company source said, "This year the unveiling will center on the Pro, Pro Max, and Ultra (foldable)," adding that "with the addition of the foldable iPhone, among the existing iPhone lineup, the standard model could see its launch pushed back to next spring."

[Apple Hub @theapplehub]

What to expect from Apple's upcoming foldable iPhone based on the latest rumors 🔥

[華爾街分析猿 @WSTAnalystApe]

大摩：台積電 2027 年 CoWoS 初步產能分配出爐

輝達仍拿下最多產能；AMD 則受惠 Agentic AI 帶動 CPU 封裝需求，用量暴增 308% 後超越博通，聯發科則受惠谷歌 TPU 放量變成第四大用戶，這還沒算從英特爾額外取得的 EMIB 產能，AWS 族群增速最慢只有約 40%，不是說 Trainium 很好賣嗎？

輝達：122.2 萬片（+57%）
AMD：53.0 萬片（+308%）
博通：48.4 萬片（+61%）
聯發科：18.0 萬片（+350%）
AWS／Annapurna：9.0 萬片（+45%）
Marvell：6.4 萬片（+276%）
創意：6.0 萬片（+329%）
AWS / 世芯：3.6 萬片（+38%）

[Savage_Trader @dheerajkaja]

$LPKF will find some competition here with $8027.TW E&R Engineering.

[Daniel Romero @HyperTechInvest]

Glass substrates hype is ramping up

While most people focus on TGV, Metallization is the hardest step in building a glass substrate and the one actually holding back yields right now

TGV is essentially solved: the lasers are qualified, and the process is under control

$LPK CEO told me as much directly

What isn’t fully solved is filling those holes with copper while maintaining structural integrity

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Here’s how the process works

Once the vias are drilled, using TGV technology like $LPK LIDE, they’re still empty holes in glass

Metallization is the set of steps that turns them into conductive copper interconnects and plates the copper routing around them

It splits into three problems:

→ Void-free fill. You have to fill a deep, narrow hole with copper and leave no gaps inside.

→ Copper-to-glass adhesion. Copper doesn’t naturally stick to smooth glass. Without the right surface chemistry, the metal lifts off. Organic substrates don’t have this problem; glass does.

→ Surviving thermal cycling. Copper expands about five times more than glass when heated, so every power cycle stresses the glass around each via and can crack it. A substrate that passes electrical testing can still fail after a few thousand heat cycles

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Now onto the companies solving this:

→ Atotech (part of $MKSI). Its VitroCoat and CupraTech chemistries are the reference for both copper-to-glass adhesion and void-free fill

→ Okuno Chemical (private). Its TOP LUCINA GCS additives are built specifically for void-free full-fill of glass-core through-holes

→ Koto Electric (private). Its proprietary GWC process plates copper directly onto glass without roughening the surface

→ TRUMPF (private). Before a via can be filled, its sidewalls need a thin, continuous copper layer all the way down, and ordinary line-of-sight sputtering shadows out in a deep hole. TRUMPF’s HiPIMS ionizes the copper so it can be driven to the bottom, at a claimed double the deposition rate of rivals

→ SCHMID ($SHMD). Its InfinityLine covers panel plating, wet processing steps, and CMP. On plating, it competes against $AMAT and $LRCX. On CMP, it is up against $AMAT and Ebara, which own 90%+ of that market

→ The glass makers: AGC, Corning, SCHOTT, and NEG. These companies are central to the third problem. They tune the glass’s expansion toward silicon and strengthen it through ion exchange, which is what lets a filled via survive thermal cycling

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

While metallization has been the toughest step, and still is, $LPK CEO told me it is also now largely solved, which is why we're seeing a timeline acceleration by the two companies achieving the best yields, which we can assume refers to Absolics and SEMCO

[ Jason Chiu @torakuchiu]

Goal(目標)
將【原文】翻譯為正式出版等級的繁體中文,使用台灣在地化慣用詞彙,語法正確、用詞道地。

翻譯 Loop: Verify-Fix-Repeat 範本
使用方式:把【原文】貼上,整段丟給任何 LLM,AI 會自動跑完整迴圈,不需要你每階段手動確認。

https://t.co/EoYacaGBSg

[Anatoli Kopadze @AnatoliKopadze]

https://t.co/eq0oL4fIaR

[Tomás Vendel @vendel_tomas]

Todavía lo releo cada semana.

Es, sin exagerar, uno de los artículos más valiosos que he leído sobre cómo cambiar tu vida.

[法克魷吉米 Jimmy | Real TSMC Insight | 純愛を学び中 💜 @jimmy_yoasobi]

1/9

The market is talking about “glass” again.

But this is not the same glass story.

Glass core helps stabilize advanced chip packages.

Glass cloth is used inside materials that become server PCBs.

Same word.

Different layer.

Different suppliers.

Different bottleneck.

Before interpreting the latest supply and pricing headlines, we need to understand where each one sits.

[TrendForce @trendforce]

What happens to #memory demand when AI shifts from training to #inference? KV cache offloading and agentic AI are two drivers worth watching. More: https://t.co/0sK7bdd8gb 🔗

#KVcache #AgenticAI

[Paradis Labs @ParadisLabs]

24x more tokens used by 2030.

More inference compute.

More earnings across the AI supply chain.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The Iran peace deal has now been announced by Pakistan on X, confirmed by US leaders and Iranian media on X, and backed by Qatar on X.

X has become the central venue to discuss and announce the most influential decisions in the world.

[LIWEI_TW Capital @LIWEI_TWCapital]

Manufacturing Core:

• TSMC（台灣積體電路製造）：https://t.co/rPM4b3t9mD（TWSE）TSM（NYSE）

OSAT:

• ASE Technology Holding
（日月光投控）：https://t.co/z2GjODutZF（TWSE）⬇️⬇️
$ASX : Your only shot for CoPoS supply chain if you don’t wanna tolerate Taiwan stock’s bullshit rules (NYSE）

• PTI（力成科技 Powertech Technology Inc.）：https://t.co/N76Aahx48d
• KYEC（京元電子 King Yuan Electronics）：https://t.co/Ah5YLBUI1v

Equipment & Materials Suppliers

• GPTC（弘塑科技 Grand Process Technology Corp.）：https://t.co/1VSbcWeiCx
• Scientech（昕泰科技 Scientech Corp.）：https://t.co/mJ9vU0PWpu
• Allring（All Ring Tech Co., Ltd. / 亞銳科技）：https://t.co/bG8Le4p36b
• Gudeng（鈞鼎精密 Gudeng Precision Industrial）：https://t.co/imXSZ4kzJ4
• C SUN（志聖工業 C Sun Mfg Ltd.）：https://t.co/Eip8y0D9g9
• GMM（鈞寶微機械 Gallant Micro Machining Co., Ltd.）：https://t.co/Lje9dHzHyZ
• Group Up（群翊工業 Group Up Industrial Co., Ltd.）：https://t.co/8xW13TPoVO
• APT（印能科技 AblePrint Technology Co., Ltd.）：https://t.co/SEeQGEpq5Y
• GPM（鈞寶精密機械 Gallant Precision Machining Co., Ltd.）：https://t.co/YTCawbfdyM
• FAVITE（晶彩科技 Favite Inc.）：https://t.co/tGRkEbjn8g
• VisEra（晶相光 VisEra Technologies）：https://t.co/EvyQa2PU2y

[TrendForce @trendforce]

TSMC's #CoPoS is moving fast, and the opportunities for Taiwan suppliers are taking shape. CoPoS replaces traditional round glass carrier with a square panel format, pushing utilization rates above 75%.
More on glass material development: https://t.co/Na9XtpNK8Q 🔗