@karpathy The world of muggles just discovered magic exists. You can use magic to sweep streets! 20pct of muggles tried it, hates it. 60pct are using it to sweep streets, and worry what happens to street sweepers. And 20pct : can i create new spells? What is the limit of magic?
@MrChuckD@SRuhle@BillyBaldwin Wha? The great lyricist @MrChuckD just replied to @SRuhle about Long Island and I cannot believe this confluence of events in the world. Strong Island Represent!
@zerohedge No they are amortizing the pain out. The cost of the facility is expensive compared to the asset’s yield. So bad for earnings (Ie shareholders /mgmt) but no knockout for depositors. Banks that need this will have a long drag against earnings. Banks who are able to sell will.
@Gosia_Karas_ @Leirbagflow@danprimack Think vast amt of the duration book is agency rmbs/cmbs so in theory explicitly govt guaranteed. Prob other stuff too but the big MTM hit was agency mbs >10 yr duration. So mgmt/equity is zeroed. Any buyer can use the Fed term facility but it’s expensive. Better buyer is big 3.
@Gosia_Karas_ @Leirbagflow@danprimack This was not a credit risk issue, it was always liquidity / duration. Hugely different from 2008. The credit risk is the venture loan book. 3/
@Gosia_Karas_ @Leirbagflow@danprimack No that’s MTM to sell it all right now. If Fed provides long term funding to hold the agency bonds to maturity, that’s no credit risk and means the asset will pull back to par. The loss assumes you have to sell assets right now. You don’t. The Fed just gives funding. 1:
@Gosia_Karas_ @Leirbagflow@danprimack That’s why free to taxpayers. In fact the Fed itself does the same. The Fed is the biggest buyer of long dated treasury and agency mortgages from 2 years ago. On MTM basis, the Fed itself has massive “unrealized losses”. But it can just hold them to maturity 2/
@twobitidiot Sell SVB equity for $1. Buyer gets LTRO (long term repo) of some form from Fed to protect against forced MTM hit of govt bonds. Buyer takes on venture loan book risk. Liquidity risk goes away. Equity/mgmt wiped out. Depositors safe.
@twobitidiot Agree mgmt had terrible duration risk mgmt. but those saying “what idiot would buy long dated at the peak?!” Ignore that it was the EXPLICIT policy aim of the Fed to drive down rates. The biggest buyer of long dated agency/USTs 2 years ago was the Fed itself.
@MacroAlf@BobEUnlimited Terrible take. And shows the imprecision of terms being thrown out. Equity shareholders should NOT be bailed out. They benefited from these risks. Depositors SHOULD be protected. Extend an LTRO (long term repo) and sell the equity for a dollar to JPM/Citi/BofA. Crisis averted.
@sydney_bug@OnstageBlog Romeo Must Die, 2000 film, Jet Li and Aaliyah were leads. Also Delroy Lindo, Isaiah Washington, DMX, Russell Wong, Grace Park, Henry O, Anthony Anderson, DB Woodside
@KalhanR I applaud you on the transparency of the first tweet in this thread. “Do I want to spend 45 seconds reading UES Frenchie drama?” “Yes. Yes, I do.”
@SahilBloom Tommy used to work on the docks, Unions been on strike, he’s down on his luck it’s tough, so tough. Gina works the diner all day, working for her man she brings home her pay for love, for love
@pythianism Different. Ppl saying all of crypto could collapse today. In 2008, it was all of everything could collapse. We feared it would stop the whole system, not just one part. Scary.