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BTC $86k is sitting on 2-year realized price
👉 https://t.co/WGsyMg0UO2
In February 2021, @Saylor raised money for $MSTR to buy Bitcoin by issuing 0% convertible senior notes. Investors wanted to participate in Bitcoin's upside by owning MSTR. Now he is forced to pay 11.5%, as investors don't want Bitcoin's limited upside. They just want the yield.
In 2025, @Saylor predicted that Bitcoin would hit $1 million per coin if $MSTR accumulated 5% of the supply. MSTR now owns 3.9%. If buying the next 231,666 BTC has the same impact on Bitcoin's price as buying the last 231,666, Bitcoin will be below 60k when MSTR finally hits 5%.
Thanks Sminston for bringing awareness to The Saylor Curve and for replicating the analysis to further validate the findings.
Interestingly, this fit wouldn't have worked 6 months ago. The model only really became discoverable within the last 3 months.
According to the latest model fit, the inflection point is still ahead of us, which, as you know, means we're in the acceleration phase where the growth rate itself is still increasing.
That inflection is projected for November of this year, and interestingly enough, that's the same month Saylor is projected to cross 1M.
The inflection marks peak growth rate, after which the rate begins its long deceleration.
But since a logistic curve is symmetric around its inflection, once we cross it roughly half of the total cumulative growth will still lie ahead, so there are plenty of years of significant growth left.
Update: The Saylor Curve Model
A few improvements.
Instead of fixing the ceiling at 2.1M, I let the data decide.
All 3 logistic parameters (L, k, tₘ) are now free and optimized by the solver.
The data-derived ceiling comes in at 1,987,657, right around where my original 10% of supply anchor sat.
Switching from fixed L = 2.1M to free L = 1.99M pulled the inflection point back by about 7 weeks.
Both the ceiling and the inflection are now data-driven, so they will evolve with every new buy.
I also plotted all 107 Saylor buys on the chart as individual dots, plus some layout and design tweaks.
Strategy will hit a $1 trillion market cap in 5 years
and a $2 to $2.5 trillion market cap in 7-9 years,
assuming both the Saylor Curve and Bitcoin Power Curve hold.
$BTC
We are approaching the short-term holders realized price.
In simple terms, during bear markets BTC often stays below, rejecting from it multiple times before a macro bottom is formed.
Since we are testing it directly now, there is a strong chance we see a HTF retrace.
JUST IN: 🇵🇰 Pakistan's central bank overturns ban and allows banks to open accounts for licensed Bitcoin & crypto service providers, Reuters reports 🚀
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#Bitcoin is in the historic bottom zone.
That's the same as in 2015, 2018, 2020 and 2022.
Three out of those four cases, we didn't see new lows.
In 2022, given that the collapse of FTX occurred, we did see one more drop.
Moral of the story: time to accumulate your positions.
Oh, by the way, we never got into overbought or historic peak in previous run, so we're technically still in the midst of a larger bull run.
Credits to @jv_finance for the chart.
REPEATING A WARNING
In Rich Dad’s Prophecy (2013) I warned the biggest stock market crash in history….was STILL coming.
In 2026, I hope I am wrong…. Yet I am afraid that crash is now arriving.
Why did I make that prediction?
Because the cause of the 2008 crash, the GFC, Great Financial Crisis was never fixed. The subsequent crash could only get bigger.
In 2008 I was on Wolf Blitzer’s CNN program predicting the crash of Lehman Brothers, which crashed a few days later. (Check me out)
In 2026 the crash will be led by Black Rocks private credit Ponzi scheme.
I hope I am wrong….yet if and when Black Rock crashes…It’s going to be fast and destructive.
Baby boomers retirements will be wiped out all over the world because the world is loaded with debt it cannot pay back.
I continue to suggest investors become proactive and acquire gold, silver, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and partnerships in real oil wells.
As the price rockets go boom I get richer because silver disappears and the price of oil goes up.
I love silver because even in 2026, if you have $10 you can go to a gold and silver dealer and buy $10 worth of junk real silver….and receive a great financial education from the dealer….who wants you as a long term customer.
For just $10 anyone can invest in silver. If you do not have a spare $10 stop eating for one day.
My point is please do not be a victim of WOKE financial education which is financial education for the victims of soceity. There is a lot of truth in the words…”Go Woke Go Broke.”
Skip eating for one day and invest $10 in real junk silver, dimes and quaters.
You’ll be healthier, wealthier and probably better looking.
Take care.