Tr8derz

HF lifer, current sock trader 🧦

[Tr8derz @tr8derz]

@DannyDayan5 @nickgiva1 How do you get the long end higher in your opinion Danny ?

[Tr8derz @tr8derz]

Feels a bit toppy when the Korean degens are ecstatic about a company (whose stock is +900% in 1 year) aggressively locking-in pricing below spot levels. $MU $SNDK

[Tr8derz @tr8derz]

$CSCO inventory + purchase commitments vs. COGS now matches the COVID panic-buying peak. They've pre-bought 15 months of components in 90 days! When this pull-forward demand reverses, their semi suppliers ($AVGO, $MRVL, $MU, $LITE) face a multi-quarter order cliff. h/t WF

[Tr8derz @tr8derz]

$CSCO cutting DRAM usage by 50% in select networking products "There's 20-plus programs that we've put into place that are active to reduce the memory utilization across the portfolio, an example of which is in the wireless space, you'll see products that will become orderable in Q4 that will actually require 50% less memory." $MU $SNDK $Hynix

[Tr8derz @tr8derz]

Fascinating point from MS…arguing oil is now being stored by non-OECD countries who have also been stockpiling gold, given the all-time-low price ratio between the two.

[Eliant Capital @eliant_capital]

The recent run-it-hot mantra continues to be more obvious by the day… Coming into the year, one of the bigger bear cases was the administration cutting down the deficit / reducing spending & creating a ‘detox’ for the economy…

Now, the administration has done a complete-180 & is emphasizing that deregulation is coming in the back-half of the year into ‘26 to stimulate growth / the administration is in-fact going to continue spending / increase deficits & kick the can down the road (Even Elon came out yesterday & said focus has shifted to growing the economy instead of cutting spending) & their outright plan isn’t to detox the economy but rather bolster growth to outpace debt to reduce deficit-to-GDP… run it hot.

The hard-data rolling over anticipators will continue to be disappointed & the recessionistas / deflationistas will soon shift back to inflationistas before you know it.

[Tr8derz @tr8derz]

Nice chart showing the lag between soft and hard data in prior event-driven recessions (GS)

[Tr8derz @tr8derz]

Everything Ackman does is to benefit his own financial position. Now calling for Lutnick to get fired to spark a market rally to bail him out of his ill conceived casino bets. A truly awful person 🤡

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

I just figured out why @howardlutnick is indifferent to the stock market and the economy crashing. He and Cantor are long bonds. He profits when our economy implodes.

It’s a bad idea to pick a Secretary of Commerce whose firm is levered long fixed income. It’s an irreconcilable conflict of interest.

[Tr8derz @tr8derz]

Congrats to $PLTR, which now has a market cap larger than the one $NVDA had at the October ‘22 lows.

[Tr8derz @tr8derz]

@bennpeifert @rev_cap The housing market has drastically deteriorated in recent years. While the consequences of Trump’s approach remains to be seen, popping the asset bubbles would be an (un)intended positive consequence

[Tr8derz @tr8derz]

@Citrini7 how about deflation?

[Tr8derz @tr8derz]

@jasonfurman Yeah Furman, the path the US was on (raging deficit, asset bubbles, record housing in affordability) was amazing! Would be catastrophic if the Nasdaq fell 10% after going up 140% in just 5 years.

[Tr8derz @tr8derz]

@Castantine @A_P_Capital @jasonfurman The market doesn’t clear at current prices. Homebuilder orders are now falling YoY with inventories approaching peak ‘06 housing bubble levels. Your solution of building more houses would result in lower housing prices. The easier solution is to unlock existing supply.

[Tr8derz @tr8derz]

@Castantine @A_P_Capital @jasonfurman Love your confidence despite having no idea what you’re talking about

[Tr8derz @tr8derz]

@A_P_Capital @jasonfurman Nothing says strong economy like record low housing affordability, twin asset bubbles, and a deficit spiraling out of control

[Tr8derz @tr8derz]

@tallnfat @MrBlonde_macro @RealJimChanos @sunchartist Very bullish you ignore all of the wasted CAPEX, $MSFT multiple expansion from its OAI partnership, much lower hyperscaler revenues, $QQQ having one of its worst ERPs in history, massive crowdedness into tech. $AMZN has a 50x P/E btw.

[Tr8derz @tr8derz]

@DerivativesDon @AsymAnalytica @Fullcarry Did the WAM change meaningfully in 2022?

[Tr8derz @tr8derz]

@TopadoDuran @DOGE I’d imagine any treasury secretary doesn’t like bond vigilantes. He seems to be the antithesis of Yellen, which allowed reckless fiscal spending to be funded out of the RRP account. Hopefully he can term out the debt while we get our fiscal house in order….

[Tr8derz @tr8derz]

@DannyDayan5 Crypto’s only use case is trying to scare others into buying it