Abiola Adefowope | Macro & FX

Daily macro & FX brief before the London open. Rates, oil, gold, indices & BTC, with levels and what would prove me wrong. Derby, UK. Views mine, not advice.

[Abiola Adefowope | Macro & FX @tradelabng]

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are the same AI/rates trade: pick one, don't stack both. A BTC long next to an index short is a partial hedge, not a separate bet.

Research and personal views only, not financial advice. Trade your own plan.

Tomorrow's brief before the London open.

[Abiola Adefowope | Macro & FX @tradelabng]

New York session setups for Monday.

Four on my radar: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/CAD and Bitcoin.

Bias from yesterday's high/low + the 4am 4H candle. I only enter on a 15M/5M shift at the level.
#Stocks

[Abiola Adefowope | Macro & FX @tradelabng]

$BTC (82,719) | Bias: Long

Buy 82,300 → Target 83,100 | Stop 82,050
Better entry: 81,750, target 82,800
Wrong if: a break below 81,700 opens 80,700

The 4am candle closed above Sunday's high. It trades with the Nasdaq, so a weak cash open is the risk.

[Abiola Adefowope | Macro & FX @tradelabng]

My bias: Naira: Neutral • T-bills: flat to higher • Inflation: easing, core is the risk (+1.11% m/m).

Your call for the next MPC: another cut, or a pause?

My personal view, not a recommendation to buy or sell. Research and personal views only, not financial advice.

[Abiola Adefowope | Macro & FX @tradelabng]

Brent is near $109, yet Nigeria's FX reserves just dipped for the first time in three months.

Naira & CBN, for the week:
• ~₦1,333/$ official (15 Oct)
• Reserves $55.09bn (14 Oct)
• Inflation 14.63% (Sep)
↓
#Naira #CBN

[Abiola Adefowope | Macro & FX @tradelabng]

How I check a reserves headline: go to the CBN's own series and note the date.

Last week a ~$58bn figure did the rounds. The CBN said it was wrong; the corrected level was ~$55.1bn.

With oil near $109 I'd expect reserves to firm, so this dip is one I'm watching.

[Abiola Adefowope | Macro & FX @tradelabng]

GBP/USD long and a EUR/USD short (if it triggers) would offset each other on the dollar. Pick one, don't stack both.

These are my research setups, not signals or financial advice. Manage your own risk.

New York setups (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/CAD, Bitcoin) at 13:00 UK.

[Abiola Adefowope | Macro & FX @tradelabng]

London session setups for Monday.

Four on my radar: GBP/USD, EUR/USD, gold and the FTSE 100.

Bias from yesterday's high/low + the 4am 4H candle. I only enter on a 15M/5M shift at the level.
#Forex

[Abiola Adefowope | Macro & FX @tradelabng]

#FTSE 100 (10,882) | Bias: Long

Long above 10,892 (Friday's high) → Target ~10,940
Wrong if: a break below 10,797 opens ~10,740

No 4am candle: the cash market was shut. I'll confirm on the 15M after the 08:00 open. Energy weight helps with oil above $100.

[Abiola Adefowope | Macro & FX @tradelabng]

Today (UK time):
• 13:30 Canada CPI (Sep), seen 3.2%

This week: UK CPI Wed 07:00 (seen 3.4%), flash PMIs later on.

Bottom line: oil sets the tone, tech sets the mood. Does $100 oil push the Fed into a December hike?

Research and personal views only, not financial advice.

[Abiola Adefowope | Macro & FX @tradelabng]

Monday macro brief. Three themes for the week:

• Oil's war premium: Brent near $109
• The AI selloff: Nasdaq 100 had its worst week since June
• China's Q3 beat, then Canada CPI today

Levels + setups ↓
#Macro #Forex

[Abiola Adefowope | Macro & FX @tradelabng]

Gold and crypto:

$XAUUSD holds the middle of Friday's 4,147–4,199 range. Haven demand from the Gulf vs 5% US yields.
$BTC closed its 4am candle above Sunday's high at 82,719. It has been trading with the Nasdaq, so the 14:30 open matters.