Tracy Rahmlow

Retired IT Manager of Database Operations team at @AmFam enterprise. Interested in #Bitcoin, #ETH, #crypto, financial markets and technology

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

One of the most misunderstood $MSTR metrics is BTC Breakeven ARR. If BTC appreciates faster than 3.3% over time, BTC capital gains can fund $STRC dividends indefinitely.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US M2 money supply surged +$247.8 billion in May, to a record $23.1 trillion.

This marks the largest monthly increase since May 2021.

Year-to-date, M2 has soared +$698.6 billion, the largest January to May increase in 5 years.

Money supply now stands $1.3 trillion above the March 2022 peak.

Since 2000, money in circulation has grown at an average annual rate of +6.3%.

US money creation is accelerating.

[Chase Passive Income @chasedownleads]

Donald Trump didn't make his first billion in crypto until age 80

Relax, you still have time

[Frank @FrankAFetter]

Generational entry. $BTC

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Gold tumbles to Nov '25 lows of $3943, after crashing Yen triggers 162 stops; silver dragged lower too

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Debt

U.S. Debt now exceeds 100% of GDP for the first time since World War 2 🤯👀

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: Commercial Real Estate

Office CMBS Delinquency Rate hits 12.3%, the highest level in history 👀

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

Meanwhile:

Money supply is growing at its fastest pace in 5 years.

https://t.co/TthuVZk5R5

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

U.S. money supply is growing at its fastest pace in 5 years.

[Ash Crypto @AshCrypto]

In the past two cycles, Bitcoin bear markets only lasted two consecutive 6-month candles before a major uptrend.

The current 6M candle closes tomorrow.

Will history repeat for a third time?

[Quinten | 048.eth @QuintenFrancois]

Bitcoin never had 2 red years in a row 🚨

[Parker @TheOtherParker_]

What a day for $STRC. When it rains it pours.

When panic is setting in, it helps to revisit the fundamentals of why you made the investment in the first place.

The main thing to focus on is that STRC is designed as a "bend, not break" instrument. Or, better yet, a "Stretch, not snap" instrument - yes, cringe.

First, let's get some facts out there:
1. Strategy's total annual cash outlays are about $1.7B for dividends and coupons. Most of that is for STRC dividends.

2. Strategy currently has $1.4B in cash, and raised $300M last week on the $MSTR ATM. They raised $100M each of the prior two weeks as well. The stock is still trading at a small premium to mNAV as of today. They have likely raised a few hundred million additional this week, maybe even $300M .

3. Strategy's converts have put dates mostly in mid 2028; however, a third of the converts are still trading at a premium to par, meaning they would be unlikely to be put.

4. Strategy has a number of mechanisms at their disposal to help bring the price of STRC back to par.

Ok, now for some additional thoughts:
1. The $1.7B that Strategy "owes" each year amounts to $33M/wk. The MSTR common traded $11B last week. $IBIT traded $6B last week. $BTC traded about $3B on Coinbase alone, while globally, traded multiples of that. If they need to raise $33M/wk, they can, basically forever. Even if they were just selling BTC and turned off the MSTR ATM, they'd be selling 545 BTC/wk at current BTC prices. They could do a mixture of MSTR ATM and BTC sales to spread it out. To put 545 BTC into perspective, so far in 2026, Strategy has acquired 174,863 BTC. So, if they simply sold what they acquired this year on a weekly basis, they could fund dividends and coupons for 74 months beyond the 10 months they already have - total of 84 months, or 7 years. What if BTC drops to $30k you say? They can fund things for 47 months, including existing cash, so 4 years. To be VERY CLEAR, this is only selling the BTC they bought this year, it leaves the other 672,500 BTC acquired prior to 2026 in tact. If you throw that all into the mix, they can fund cash needs for 31 and 16 years at $60k and $30k BTC respectively. If BTC is at $30k in 16 years, I think it is dead.

TL;DR - cash outlays aren't a problem. No "death spiral" is triggered from selling a few hundred BTC/wk.

2. The converts seem really scary, with put dates coming up in 2 years roughly. However, there are a few things to consider. First, with a volatile stock like MSTR, they can very likely refinance the converts with another convert that has a later put date, later maturity and lower strike price on the conversion price. This is due to the very high value of the imbedded option in the convert. There's some dilution there for the common holders, but not crazy, since it's somewhat offset by the elimination of the old converts. Based on today's prices and a 30% conversion premium, that would be about 10% in net additional shares issuable upon conversion of the new convert. If the common float doubles between now and that future conversion (very likely), that's only a 5% dilution. Not amazing, but also not horrible for the MSTR common holders. That 5-10% dilution would push back the conversion date by many years. Additionally, other companies have successfully swapped converts for preferreds in the past, e.g. Strive, so there's no reason that Strategy couldn't come to an arrangement there with a number of the convert investors.

TL;DR - the converts are not a huge problem and wouldn't require the company to come up with $6.7B in cash right on the spot.

3. Strategy has no margin debt. So, BTC could actually fall to $1 tomorrow and they would not be "liquidated". There is no liquidation price in the short-term. Period.

4. So, what is the "death" scenario for Strategy? Turns out, there's no killshot, just a slow bleed. Sure, if BTC falls to $20k and stays there for 6-7 years, then Strategy has a problem. But only at that point do they have a problem. If you think this is a realistic scenario, you should leave bitcoin immediately and short every company in crypto. Very few crypto businesses would survive that.

So, putting it all together, Strategy is specifically designed as an anti-fragile fortress for bitcoin accumulation. Sure, leverage creates some risk, but it is also the ONLY reason they are able to accumulate BTC. If they had zero leverage, then IBIT would be the better investment. Any big hedge funds that want to "liquidate" them would need to keep the price of BTC generationally low for over half a decade.

The biggest advantage that Strategy has is time. They can wait and be deliberate. To flip a common phrase on its head, Strategy can stay solvent MUCH longer than the market can stay irrational.

Now, regarding STRC specifically, this is Strategy's flagship product. If they stop paying the dividends on it, they lose S3 eligibility for a year. That's a HORRIBLE outcome, so they would only stop paying the dividend in the most dire of circumstances. In fact, very few preferred stock issues ever stop paying dividends, and most that do, do it because of bankruptcy.

They very much want to see STRC trading back at par, because it is their primary cash-raising mechanism for accumulating more BTC.

That does NOT mean they are going to panic, raise the dividend to 15%, and sell a bunch of BTC to buyback all the STRC. They have plenty of time, and as long as you don't sell, you have time too. You continue to collect the dividend that you signed up for, and likely an increased one as they increase the dividend over time. You still get $11.5 per year per share of STRC, regardless of the market price.

STRC can certainly go lower, but as long as you're not margined against it, it shouldn't really matter. It's very clear that Strategy has both the capacity and the desire to continue paying the dividends and ultimately support getting the price back to par. Maybe it takes a few weeks or maybe it takes a few months. STRC is a low time preference instrument issued by a low time preference company.

The important thing is, there's no "breaking point" anytime soon. BTC basically must completely fail before there's a "breaking point". There is certainly a "panic point" though for investors, and with STRC down almost 15% so far this week, nearly 3x worse than BTC, it's very clear we are at "panic point".

Ultimately, STRC was designed to remove the possibility of "breaking points". The goal is to "bend, not break".

"Stretch, not snap."

[Simply Bitcoin @SimplyBitcoin]

This is wild.

Global liquidity is at an all time high.

Bitcoin is down 50% from its peak.

The gap has never stayed open this long.

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

Even if Strategy NEVER touched their USD or BTC reserves, they would only have to dilute MSTR at 0.5% per month to pay the dividends.

That’s 6% per year.

MSTR shareholders know they are getting 44% amplified Bitcoin in exchange for servicing the dividends.

The math isn’t hard. Strategy is fine.

[_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_]

Pro tip: CAGR is considerably higher than 30% when you buy Bitcoin when it is this cheap.

The higher you buy, the worse your performance is.

Buy the whole bottom.

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

Crude oil sinks toward pre-war levels

[_Checkonchain @_checkonchain]

Late-stage bear markets are defined by apathy.

Trading volumes dry up, demand weakens, sentiment deteriorates, and many investors begin questioning whether the asset will ever recover.

In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines whether Bitcoin is approaching the pointy end of this bear market, and what the current combination of investor behaviour, ownership structure, and market activity suggests about where we are in the cycle. Read it here → https://t.co/CCluhj394j.

Chart note:
Long-Term Holders now control 77.9% of Bitcoin's invested capital (Realised Cap). Historically, this metric tends to peak late in bear markets, as supply gradually migrates from weaker hands to investors with longer time horizons.

[Zynx @ZynxBTC]

The Bitcoin power law chart is telling us that BTC is incredibly undervalued.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $64,000.

It has never gone below the support line (red) which currently sits at ~$59,500.

The fair value (green line) indicates that Bitcoin should be trading around ~$168,000.

The resistance line (purple) which has been hit in 3 of the previous 4 cycles is currently at $589,000.

This is a historic opportunity to double down on your conviction and stack more Bitcoin.

[Frank @FrankAFetter]

Just 52% of the bitcoin supply is in profit; that’s one standard deviation below the mean. This is stuff you see at bottoms. $BTC

[The ₿itcoin Therapist @TheBTCTherapist]

Either Bitcoin is broken or the most magnificent bull run of our generation is about to be unleashed