Tewordos Shang-Das

Father. Husband of 3. Grierian economist.

[Tewordos Shang-Das @tshangdas]

@FinSkeptics https://t.co/fqjOWCZpZ8

I built a tool to plot the full distribution of "synthetic Indias": https://t.co/UF7oRSWvgV

Click on any point in the scatter plot to plot that particular Synthetic India.

[Tewordos Shang-Das @tshangdas]

@FinSkeptics https://t.co/fqjOWCZpZ8

I built a tool to plot the full distribution of "synthetic Indias": https://t.co/UF7oRSWvgV

Click on any point in the scatter plot to plot that particular Synthetic India.

[Tewordos Shang-Das @tshangdas]

NEW PAPER: INTO THE MODIVERSE: Exercises in Grierian economics.

Grier's groundbreaking work uses a "Synthetic India" (38% Ethiopia, 28% China, 25% Bangladesh) and proves Modi's India underperformed "Synthetic India".

Inspired by this, we construct a new Synthetic India: 30% Bangladesh, 31% Ghana, 28% Eswatini... but Modi's India outperforms this Synthetic India by $1203 per year!

[Tewordos Shang-Das @tshangdas]

@utkawas1 @JustinSandefur @dhume https://t.co/f2JyTPz6kj

[Tewordos Shang-Das @tshangdas]

@FelineBored @amitmalviya I'm just a little Synthetic Indian (38% Ethiopian 28% Chinese 25% Bangladeshi) guy

[Tewordos Shang-Das @tshangdas]

@SimAnnealing https://t.co/f2JyTPz6kj

[Tewordos Shang-Das @tshangdas]

@FelineBored @amitmalviya I'm just a little Synthetic Indian (38% Ethiopian 28% Chinese 25% Bangladeshi) guy

[Tewordos Shang-Das @tshangdas]

NEW PAPER: INTO THE MODIVERSE: Exercises in Grierian economics.

Grier's groundbreaking work uses a "Synthetic India" (38% Ethiopia, 28% China, 25% Bangladesh) and proves Modi's India underperformed "Synthetic India".

Inspired by this, we construct a new Synthetic India: 30% Bangladesh, 31% Ghana, 28% Eswatini... but Modi's India outperforms this Synthetic India by $1203 per year!

[Saurabh Chandra @saurabhchandra]

What a paper! Comparing India’s trajectory with and without Modi.

https://t.co/rpK9hJISLu

[Tewordos Shang-Das @tshangdas]

@JustinSandefur @dhume Yes: in fact I systematically enumerated the 90 best-fitting synthetic Indias (the Grier one does not even make the cut), and Modi's India outperforms >93% of them.

So if you accept the synthetic control method (as you have), you must now strongly update to favoring Modi.

[Tewordos Shang-Das @tshangdas]

@RamblerWrangler TL;DR their result depends on a (completely arbitrary/hand-picked) choice of "synthetic model".

We show that 93% of such choices show a "pro-Modi" narrative (so far as the SCT method is valid at all), and they just handpicked one of the 7% anti-Modi models.

[Tewordos Shang-Das @tshangdas]

@FelineBored @amitmalviya I'm just a little Synthetic Indian (38% Ethiopian 28% Chinese 25% Bangladeshi) guy

[Tewordos Shang-Das @tshangdas]

In all seriousness, it is *always* possible to model an economy with as stable a growth rate as India's with a "synthetic control" at any year, which will subsequently fail to generalize, and the model failing to generalize is not evidence of a shock.

If anything, an honest enumeration of all such models provides strong evidence of "Modi good". Grier's paper simply picks one of the rare points on this histogram to the left of 0.

Such crackpot nonsense being promoted by innumerate journalists is expected; but economists like @tylercowen promoting this is just an indictment to modern academia.

[Tewordos Shang-Das @tshangdas]

In addition to the paper, we release: THE GRIERIAN PROOF MACHINE.

Apply Grier's methods to prove ANY +ve or -ve effect of ANY event on ANY economy.

How did Harambe's death affect Pakistan's economy? Find out today at https://t.co/UF7oRSX36t or read: https://t.co/XVnQmOjxg7

[Tewordos Shang-Das @tshangdas]

@JackRangaswami wdym AI? All the stats here are legit and equally valid to Grier's.