@bolimnienoga@MetheZala O czym tu dyskutować? Jedna z niewielu gier ze skomplikowaną, "dorosłą" intrygą, w której wszystko na końcu spina się w logiczną całość. Niestety wielość postaci dezorientowała mniej rozgarniętych graczy i w W3 zdecydowano się na prosty jak cep główny wątek pt. "szukamy córki".
@BrettErickson28@OuncesApp Iran has to accept a TACO before the midterms, not after. Their point of maximum leverage is when Trump still thinks he can rescue the election, not after the damage has been done.
@BrettErickson28 Who's going to neuter Trump – Congress? Just as likely losing the midterms turns Trump into an angry lame duck with one less reason to want a deal with Iran. Very dangerous for the regime.
@GavMcCracken In the Tanker war of the 1980s, Gulf shipping was also routinely attacked, yet trade continued. There are plenty of men willing to risk their lives in exchange for extraordinary profits. The longer this goes on, the more risk shippers will tolerate.
@tparsi The question is whether Iran has any way of stopping the flow of tankers out of the SoH. There are reports of large and increasing amounts of crude sneaking out, and Iran doesn't seem to be able to do anything about that.
@GavMcCracken 30% versus what price? Some probability of acquisition seems already priced in, doesn't it? If you vote NO, the price drops back to $5, so an offer of $5 × 1.3 = $6.50 should be enough to make you vote YES, shouldn't it? Or do you expect a higher markup?
@BrettErickson28 Your analysis is 100% correct on the US side. The one wrinkle is that we don't know how long Iran can truly last under a US blockade – lack of oil/gas exports can lead to oil/gas field damage; they also need cereals, gasoline, chemical precursors (for medicines), spare parts.
@BrettErickson28@ianbremmer Do you have an explanation for why Iran agreed to the MOU rather than just keeping the Strait closed in order to exert maximum pressure on the US? It may be that Iran is also running out of time.