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“…there is nothing new in Wall Street….Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.” - 1923 | not investment advice

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Re: Software, I’m very curious everyone’s take on this:

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This 100,000%. What’s impressive is how widespread and coordinated the effort is to artificially inflate the value of this asset so that insiders, VCs, and fee generators can reap enormous profits at the expense of the general investing public. Truly unprecedented

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@RealJimChanos am I doing the math wrong on SpaceX, or, in addition to not being remotely profitable as well as burning an insane amount of cash, isn’t this business also not really growing? 1Q annualized Rev run rate is $18.76bn. 2025 Rev 18.67bn????

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Has anyone ever done a deep dive on this $ASST??? Just dipped into the 10k and holy sht…

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@GreatDecoupling @Midnight_Captl If your implicit hypothesis is correct & they’re not adding capacity fast enough bc this is a secular shift (not a “cycle”), margins will stay higher for longer, in which case these co’s will all re-rate dramatically. The market is not currently pricing that scenario in

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@GreatDecoupling @Midnight_Captl Totally valid question. My point was Memory has *historically* been a commodity cyclical, and the industry’s current behavior is consistent with that history - allocating capacity to the customer segment demanding the most capacity at the highest price/bit…

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@JCOviedo6 To bail out himself and his other xAI shareholders from an obviously failing, late to market, me too AI model company that was nowhere near frontier capability. Clearly

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@Midnight_Captl I think we are speaking in circles a little but I rly appreciate the respectful and healthy debate. Memory isn’t really an auction, aside from the Spot market which is a very small sliver of supply today. The contract pricing these guys set is pretty standard across customers…

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@Midnight_Captl Right - that’s because they’re not commodity cyclical businesses like memory. They never sell that way. Memory always does.

But look at NVDA GMs historically. They only got here when demand for AI exploded. GMs on Blackwell are not the same as legacy gaming GMs. That’s pricing

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@Midnight_Captl Well like the part where you said the market believes they’re “entitled” to huge margin expansion - that is reflected in the PEs. That’s why it’s relevant. If the market thought these margins were lasting, the PEs would be dramatically higher

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@Midnight_Captl I don’t think they’re “siphoning” surplus margin from anyone. This is purely a function of a shifting capacity/distribution to the highest price/margin segment (AI compute, incl HBM) away from lower margin segments (eg consumer electronics, mobile) until capacity frees up

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@Midnight_Captl Respectfully, not sure I agree with this at all. Memory is a commodity cyclical with 3 primary players (4 if you count the Chinese). They’re all adding capacity now, it just takes time to come online. This is why they’re priced at single digit PEs bc the mkt knows GMs are at peak

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@compound248 @sama Amazing that everyone in the industry knows it’s absolute bullsht, yet no one will come out and explicitly say it. So Elmo can keep the lie going to get the $1.75 trillion valuation for SpaceX/the survival capital he needs, which he can no longer raise any other way.…

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@RealJimChanos @grantbelden What about: if tsla sucks this bad at literally every new product since the model Y (Dojo, Semi trucks, Roadster, 4860 battery, autonomy, Model 2, etc etc etc), why are we assigning a trillion dollars of value to all the other future promises?

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@BucknSF 100%. You can’t maintain an infinity multiple without persistent relentless pumping of the narrative. When your stock trades on hopes and dreams you gotta be as aggressive as possible stoking the hopes and dreams, to your point.

Question is if/when it ever ends?

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@epictrades1 “Tripled up level”?? Is that like “Double Secret Probation”??

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@phillysport Hey @NHLFlyers can someone please spin up a Barkey #52 Flyers Dog Jersey? You’d sell a million of these overnight to Philly area dog owners

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@YaBoyCoots Dang the Leafs defenders totally out of fcks to give on that play

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@QuintinPope5 @PythiaR Holy x axis

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@TMTLongShort Wait do they call out Santa Catarina??