tushar sharma

[Marc Benioff @Benioff]

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[tushar sharma @tu2shar]

@ashwindwivedi Nooo...don't say that! Malcolm is always right though.

[tushar sharma @tu2shar]

@EuropeInvasions Or this could be Inter Milan football team celebrating a historic win :) but let's go with blind hatred.

[tushar sharma @tu2shar]

@PeterSweden7 How would you move there if they have a zero migrants policy 😂

[tushar sharma @tu2shar]

@NeenDhillon Ah ok...my recommendation is also Amazon prime.

[Sahil Bloom @SahilBloom]

A young statistician saved their lives.

His insight (and how it can change yours):

During World War II, the U.S. wanted to add reinforcement armor to specific areas of its planes.

Analysts examined returning bombers and plotted the bullet holes and damage on them (as in the image below).

Based on this analysis, they came to the conclusion that adding armor to the tail, body, and wings would improve their odds of survival.

But a young statistician named Abraham Wald noted that this would be a tragic mistake.

By only plotting data on the planes that returned, they were systematically omitting the data on a critical, informative subset:

The planes that were damaged and unable to return.

Abraham Wald recognized a key fact:

• "Seen" planes had sustained damage that was survivable.
• "Unseen" planes had sustained damage that was not survivable.

Wald concluded that armor should be added to the *unharmed* regions of the returning planes (the areas without bullet holes on the image below).

His profound logic:

Where the survivors were unharmed was actually where the planes were most vulnerable.

Based on his insight, the military reinforced the engine and other vulnerable parts, significantly improving the safety of the crews during combat and saving thousands of lives.

Abraham Wald had identified a cognitive bias called "Survivorship Bias":

The error resulting from systematically focusing on survivors (successes) and ignoring casualties (failures) that causes us to miss the true base rates of survival (the actual probability of success) and arrive at flawed conclusions.

We see examples of Survivorship Bias all around us:

1. We read books on the common traits of successful people, but fail to consider all of the unsuccessful people who possessed those same traits.

2. We applaud the belief when we hear that an entrepreneur took out a second mortgage and succeeded, but fail to consider all of the entrepreneurs who did the same and went bankrupt.

3. We study the cultural strategies of the most successful companies, but fail to consider all of the companies that followed those same strategies and fell apart.

When we fail to consider the range of outcomes and the hidden evidence, we develop a skewed (and often incorrect) view of reality.

It cannot be avoided altogether, because the vast majority of books and history are written by and about the survivors and victors, but wherever possible, consider the unseen evidence.

Remember: What is unseen often has just as much value as what is seen.

***

If you enjoyed this or learned something, follow me @SahilBloom for more in future!

[tushar sharma @tu2shar]

@ashwindwivedi @HDFC_Bank @RBI I always urgently need more money

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

Human history through selfies (with AI)

[📹 edmundsplanet: https://t.co/1ofqpYGLtF]
https://t.co/jQSSaO696A

[tushar sharma @tu2shar]

Needs some tape as well

[tushar sharma @tu2shar]

Hoping only the insides have been duct taped #AirIndia #tata

[tushar sharma @tu2shar]

@bpatter @SFBART I really hope it wasn’t Jerome Powell 😂

[Netflix @netflix]

Leia (Eric and Donna’s daughter) and Jay (Kelso and Jackie’s son) welcome you back to the basement.

Meet the whole Point Place crew when That ’90s Show premieres January 19.

[tushar sharma @tu2shar]

@LiAnneDias How long does it take to renew?

[tushar sharma @tu2shar]

@ramanmann1974 @NeenDhillon Ghee is not made from milk. Ghee is made from malai/butter/cream which comes from milk. The rest of the milk is either sold, converted to yogurt or lassi. Cost of cream is about rs 250 per kg which produces 500gm of ghee making cost of ghee around rs 500 or less.

[tushar sharma @tu2shar]

@NeenDhillon @RanadebBhattac2 @AMISHDEVGAN @narendramodi Two mistakes actually: His* and 'pm modi and camera crew's celebration'*

[tushar sharma @tu2shar]

@NeenDhillon @ndtv Coz this photo must be taken 5 seconds after modi ji thought PR photo op was done.

[tushar sharma @tu2shar]

@ashwindwivedi @Borosil Mr. Borosil khud bol raha hai. Aur kya proof chaiyee.

[tushar sharma @tu2shar]

Just like everyone else said...we have all been Mr McAdams at some point.

[tushar sharma @tu2shar]

@ameetkotian No wonder I am itchy