There are two types of people in this world: those who’ve sweated payroll, and those who haven’t.
Happy Friday to everyone waiting on a big customer payment on Monday so Tuesday’s payroll funding clears. Hope you get some rest this weekend.
Friday Thought:
One thing I’ve learned in distressed/private deals - Under ~$1m, assume the docs almost don’t matter.
Good docs help. You should still have them. But you cannot contract your way out of a bad counterparty.
If someone wants to steal, lie, delay, hide assets, or play games, they will. The documents just determine how expensive the fight becomes later.
At the end of the day, investing is mostly trust. The legal docs are there to memorialize trust - not create it.
@MSUKyleBrown I saw more distressed deal opps in this space in 2025 than any other industry. Insurers have gotten smart and are crushing down on margins. I think there’s a lot of these companies coming to market now because the easy money has already been made.
Not really. This actually isn't even that heavy-handed compared to what the government has done in the past. The government can, has, and should be able to redirect private industry to protect national security.
1. 1942 - fed created the War Production Board (WPB) that could force private manufacturing of scarce inputs for WWII
2. 1950 - fed created the Defense Production Act (DPA) to make private biz prioritize defense contracts for the Korean War and Cold War
3. 1973 - Emergency Petroleum Allocation Act (EPAA) allowed the exec branch to control how oil was sold
Anyone with a keyboard can tear down, judge, and heckle. Only the strong can build and praise.
The world needs your positivity.
If the x algorithm actually shifts to only rewarding negative engagement, opening this app will become a dreadful experience. This will push away the life-loving good voices worth being around, and leave only trolls and ghouls to wallow in their collective misery. That is not a “commons” I think is worth stooping one’s self down for.
At @HoldCoConf yesterday I met 6 people under 45 who own 100% of $10m+ EBITDA boring biz holding companies. Unbelievable roster, the quiet young legends of the ETA model.
Also had fun chatting e-comm turnarounds with @kelceylehrich
This chart explains why business ownership is so hard. In 2026, SMBs have 3 options:
1. Grow through product innovation and tech/AI efficiency
2. Sell to a buyer who will do #1
3. Get pushed out
The US economy now rewards scale, tech enablement, and specialization. Many 1-49 employee businesses are under-resourced, under-capitalized, or both.
Also, a hidden driver here is the capital vacuum for stressed SMBs. When trouble hits, they’re shut out of capital markets and left only with vampiric MCAs. This pressure is accelerating as COVID-era rescue financing comes due.
@ConnorAbene Counterpoint. If your margins are too high compared to industry benchmark, that could indicate you’re leaving material top line on the table. Need to do an optimization equation to find the right balance of margin shrinkage in exchange for more, still profitable throughput
A recurring pattern in elite founders/operators: maniacal focus + credible aggression.
Neil Mehta says it best in his interview with @patrick_oshag.
Focus isn’t “working hard.” It’s choosing the one thing that matters most and saying no to everything else.
Credible aggression is what separates ambition from fantasy: clear sequencing, proper resourcing, and explicit tradeoffs.
The best people pick a constraint, swarm it, and move to the next one only after the first breaks.
This is why some teams look “lucky.” They’re not lucky; they’re disciplined and relentless.