Tony Ursillo

technology analyst, investor, father, foodie, erratic exerciser, expert procrastinator

[Tony Ursillo @tursillo]

2/2
- Mark Zuckerberg (deceptive, ruthless, win-at-all-costs mentality)
- Adam Neumann (promising the world without the full game plan to get there)

If AI were asked to create the most invincible person to lead a company, it might have created Sam Altman.

[Tony Ursillo @tursillo]

1/2 The @RonanFarrow @NewYorker exposé convinces me @sama is actually channeling four of the most iconic tech personalities of the past 50 years:
- Bill Gates (more business person than technologist)
- Steve Jobs (bending reality to fit his narrative and objectives)
(con’t.)

[Tony Ursillo @tursillo]

This used to be known as @Uber Black. Now Black car trunks are full of drivers’ personal stuff, half of them can’t load our suitcases, and in places like Florida, some drivers are unable to communicate with us in English. Competition was overdue. @dkhos
https://t.co/egzezn2WGd

[Tony Ursillo @tursillo]

@bgurley @rohanpaul_ai The AI industry is still in its infancy. NVIDIA and others want to make sure they don’t throttle demand. Once AI is more pervasive and the monetization models are more established, you can bet price will rise to create a supply/demand equilibrium.

[Tony Ursillo @tursillo]

@JerryCap @borrowed_ideas Similar for $AMZN, $META, $MSFT: headcount roughly flat, capex up 3-4X. They said learn to code, lol. We’re all coders now.

[Tony Ursillo @tursillo]

Big takeaway from hyperscaler earnings: @oracle is screwed. Don’t have the cash flow or bal sheet to compete at scale w/ @amazon @microsoft @Google. Also blew 100% on OpenAI - now no one else will make a big RPO deal on OCI. Cooked. @PythiaR @TechFundies @buccocapital $ORCL

[Tony Ursillo @tursillo]

Most important number from @amazon tonight was $244B RPO. That $44B seq increase was equal to the growth in RPO from Q4’23 to Q3’25 - two yrs of incremental backlog in ONE qtr! Fully explains capex guide. $AMZN @TechFundies @TMTLongShort @blondesnmoney

[Tony Ursillo @tursillo]

@blondesnmoney Itemized deductions, last min IRA contributions, change in number of dependents, rental home expenses, home office expenses, marriage, divorce, relocation. Lots of manual inputs. And @intuit @turbotax will agentify its own offering, also with a huge incumbency advantage.

[Tony Ursillo @tursillo]

@Oracle Is this a parody account?

[Tony Ursillo @tursillo]

@JaredKubin Had been wondering how FCF vs EPS out to 2030 had diverged so much, even with depreciation timing differences. Gotta love how Safra parachuted out right at peak narrative momentum. Wasn’t gonna get left holding the bag that she prob wasn’t on board with in the first place. 🚩

[Tony Ursillo @tursillo]

Time for some hard truths @JesseBWatters - @CharlesHurt is not cutting it as your stand-in. Awkward, low energy, no chemistry with guests. You lose us every time he sub hosts. Sorry. Give it some thought. P.S. You still da man!

[Tony Ursillo @tursillo]

@TechFundies This is golden! What’s tough for us as investors who are also humans is that this moment - down so much on relentless selling that you waver btw despondence and throwing up - is the moment you should be your own contrarian indicator. Few have that intestinal fortitude.

[Tony Ursillo @tursillo]

This is my Dad. Born in 1926. Spending his 100th year on earth. Takes the road test every year to renew his IL driver’s license. He barely needed it today. Thx @elonmusk for giving us the gift of a great afternoon with FSD! @Tesla @wholemars @SawyerMerritt @teslacarsonly @turo

[Tony Ursillo @tursillo]

@WillManidis Bostonian here. The term wasn’t used, but essentially San Fran built network effects while Boston squandered the “inputs” that could have led to durability of its former pole position in Tech. Once the flywheel of network effects takes hold, it’s nearly impossible to dislodge.

[Tony Ursillo @tursillo]

@theallinpod @friedberg Spot on @friedberg. Smart investors (and implicitly the market) understand that the hyperscalers’ FCF is around 30% below Net Inc. Moreover, do people really think Satya, Zuck, Sundar, & Jassy are screwing w/ Depr. just to juice near-term EPS? These guys are thinking 10 yrs out!

[Tony Ursillo @tursillo]

@kevg1412 @cpaik 3/3 @OpenAI (and @AnthropicAI, @MistralAI, @perplexity_ai, etc.) will try to do the same - core search/queries, with various mainstream use cases built for AI that also generates more usage and data, making its flagship GPT better.

[Tony Ursillo @tursillo]

@kevg1412 @cpaik 2/3 There were many of them vying for leadership, each with their own twist. In the end, RELEVANCE of results, which was a function of more and better data, is what helped Google win, as well as tying other critical mass applications to that (email, maps, etc.). So…

[Tony Ursillo @tursillo]

@TechFundies Conceptually, is this much different from how 1) Meta subsidizes free app usage until it scales to 1 bil users, 2) Netflix ran at a loss investing in content & underpricing for yrs, 3) Amazon lost $$ for over a decade until it was an ecommerce gorilla and we were all dependent?

[Tony Ursillo @tursillo]

Looks like someone at @SECGov (or Bloomberg?, @business) fat-fingered entry of a $10m mkt cap Canadian penny-stock mining company called Silver Elephant as owning 12.2m ($3.4B) shares of $ORCL instead of Oracle Commodity Hldg Co. (ORCL listed on @TMXGroup). How does this happen?