UrbanIngot

Econ and cities ig
Auction work permits/visas

[UrbanIngot @two8362]

Things I tweet about: https://t.co/KLCaGfy68i

[UrbanIngot @two8362]

State planning Free market

[EigenGender 🔸 is going to CascadeCamp @EigenGender]

it’s going to be a bizarre fact for post-singularity people watching Don’t Look Up that it wasn’t a heavy handed metaphor for AI

[UrbanIngot @two8362]

@QiaochuYuan @max_spero_ Yeah, fine-tuned models are already judged to be better quality than professional writers by professional writers
hettps://arxiv.org/abs/2510.13939

[Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel_271828]

The goalposts on on a completely separate planet

[Daniel Litt @littmath]

Incidentally I am conceding this bet. Strictly speaking it hasn’t resolved (I think we’ve yet to see an Annals-quality number theory paper) but it’s clear I was wrong about what capabilities were necessary to produce one, and it’s just a matter of time.

[Zoso🇺🇳(🇮🇶) @MesoAnglic]

In the 60s, Fairchild, that Fairchild, personally went to India because they wanted their first offshore manufacturer to be there.
They wanted to produce 10 million transistors yearly; the government explicitly told them to produce only 600k.
They decided to leave for Hong Kong.

[Niklas Sheth @niklassheth]

@ElliotGlazer @GaryMarcus @QualiaQuanta @littmath @JSEllenberg @ChrSzegedy @Michael32376082 @TaliaGold I wouldn’t bother

[Acer @AcerFur]

@QualiaQuanta @GaryMarcus Out of self-respect, I’m not typically one to entertain crankery, but I realise it would be good to cut off this disinformation before it’s allowed to actively spread further. It is clear what you’ve written is generated by a non-reasoning model.

[Caleb Watney @calebwatney]

🚨 Applications close on Sunday night 🚨

Refer your friends and if we hire them you'll get $5k!

[Kevin A. Bryan @Afinetheorem]

A great point. You are seeing this in design as well with AI - it is past the point of impressing non experts so breakthroughs are not "obvious"

[Three-Eyed Raisin @GulagJamun_]

Chinese interview: The concept of atonement didn’t really exist in Ancient Greece and it didn’t exist in Homer’s Odyssey. It exists in your Odyssey. Did you Christianize the Odyssey?

American interview: spin the snack wheel and then read these thirst tweets they called you zaddy

[Gita Gopinath @GitaGopinath]

I finally got to read @michaelxpettis response. Glad he spelt it out. After reading it I wondered if Michael had read our piece or some other piece. A thread:

[UrbanIngot @two8362]

@Afinetheorem New York, Brasilia
And if suburban centres count, I'd say the Étoiles de Renaudie in Ivry sur Seine

[Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀 @peterwildeford]

I do think it's an important line of defense that companies seem to broadly understand the threats they face and seem to want to be careful, etc. We should not take that for granted!

But I still think there are going to be a lot of unknown unknowns and known unknowns here that companies may not correctly balance, esp when they have to go at lightning speed due to competitive and geopolitical pressure. Biggest example of course is OpenAI just had a rogue model attack despite obviously being incentivized to not do that. On top of this, there will of course also just be run-of-the mill typical hubris/incompetence etc.

I do think it's the proper role of government to balance this, and this is what we already do in every other industry. Especially as we get closer to recursive self-improvement and superintelligence we're going to need to tread very carefully and I worry that with the intense commercial race, companies won't be set up to do this well by default.

[kache @yacineMTB]

The current state of AI would be nowhere as good as it is if it wasn't for deepseek openly contributing their research. They invented GRPO, they invented the concept of test time compute, they invented agentic LLMs, as well as countless infra inventions. All open sourced.

[Nikolai Rostov @austrosillyism]

I read Stiglitz’s model of monopolistic competition and information asymmetry and go: “Oh wow, this is excellent, he deserved the Nobel.” And then I read his takes on Hugo Chavez and go: “How is this guy so respected”?

I read Krugman’s model of trade and his spirited defence of free trade and go: “Oh wow, this is excellent, he deserved the Nobel.” And then I read that he wanted a trillion-dollar coin to clear the debt and go: “How is this guy so respected”?

Same thing with Acemoglu on his model of growth/his views on AI. It’s just so jarring.

[Harrapa Civillisation Times @harrapasabhyata]

Amazing that instead of East Asia, AMD wanted to Make India its Semiconductor Manufacturing Hub and was investing 3 Billion$ in a Fab in India back in 2005 but it all fell apart just because,

When their Equipment came it got stuck at customs and wasn’t cleared leading to return!

[Ivan Werning @IvanWerning]

Finally read Gopinath-Gourinchas-Rey-IMF point on Yuan and imbalances. I agree completely with the central message.

Their central message. Global trade imbalances (dominated by China-US) are not due to exchange rate/monetary policy (much), but (mostly) to fiscal policy and other underlying primitives. ✅

My view: Yep. This is pure common sense! FX/monetary policy can have effects, but temporary not for decades + undervalued Yuan→inflation boom (typically) but we see deflationary slump.

My view 2. Imbalances are still implicitly portrayed as a terrible thing, to be "fixed", but I am less sure whether there is a clear argument here once we say the reason lies in primitives or fiscal policy---rather than monetary policy, say. Sure, you can change fiscal policies and affect imbalances, but that's not the same as saying "a big additional motivation for changing fiscal policy is to "fix" these imbalances", the change in imbalances is simply a side product.

Why? Consolidating public+private the aggregate US acts as impatient borrower and aggregate China as a patient saver, taking those as given, the resulting imbalances are likely mostly efficient responses. Changing these fiscal policies may well be optimal, but that can simply reflect issues of optimal tax, redistribution, insurance and debt management; not mainly or at all a focus on international capital flow statistics.

Again, I'm just using common sense here (and some economic theory in the background).

[David Shepardson @davidshepardson]

Amazing @reuterspictures photo https://t.co/v0cpvfIsb6

[Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀 @peterwildeford]

Look some people say AI is a 'stochastic parrot', but once the parrot can pick the lock on its cage and then break into the store to go get crackers then yeah it seems like we may have a problem regardless of what you call it

[Maia @maiamindel]

aschenbrenner had the largest losses ever for a single person, ended up about 30 billion down because of managerial incompetence, and is STILL up like 100% ytd. LION ALERT!!!!!!!!!