Twoandtwenty

L/S

[Twoandtwenty @twoandtwenty2]

Buy co’s that create value and are mis priced in the market. Long runway to compound Earnings/FCF on a per share basis, and reinvesting profits at high ROE/ROIC. Business model/comp As that allow for that co to capitalize on that runway.

[Twoandtwenty @twoandtwenty2]

@PythiaR No new PPAs and regulatory pushback forcing hyperscalers into BTM. No change in this looking forward as local government pushing back further on hypers accessing the grid.

[Twoandtwenty @twoandtwenty2]

@quantscience_ Est P/E at 62x… Bloomberg is done! 🤥

[Twoandtwenty @twoandtwenty2]

@phithetasigma They cite risks to dry type transformers by Phase 4 >2029. I think they under appreciate incumbent dry-type innovation into TRUs

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I'm not sure how anyone thought it was a good idea to buy $145m worth of illiquid assets in $BOT that frequently trade under NAV.

For $750M MC.

Even after the 37% drop, it's still ~$490M MC.

On top of that, people are buying into a $2,000,000,000 effective ATM that's slow dripping via a equity facility.

Retail not only gave:

> Exit liquidity.
> But exit liquidity at massively inflated valuations
> While wealth transferring whatever you buy over after the effective ATM got filed.

Maybe the fund had good intentions, but at current valuations:

If you are a retail investor, you're basically playing pyramid hot potato with the float.

[Twoandtwenty @twoandtwenty2]

(2/2)
With RJ “Sell”, Q1 orders will draw more attention, and results will drive confidence in ‘27 $7 EPS guide and the trough on trough thesis.

Quarterly orders is a low confidence interval game, but broadly I expect Q1 orders to be softer than 2H26. Buyer on weakness.

[Twoandtwenty @twoandtwenty2]

Itron $ITRI Q126 Preview (1/2)

Effectively all that matters is Q1 B/Bill (Orders) vs a 0.9x-0.95x bogey

Prior to RJ “Sell” initiation, I would’ve said Q1 does not matter much as positioning, valuation, and estimates are all depressed and Q1 typically sees low orders.

[Twoandtwenty @twoandtwenty2]

@aleabitoreddit You are already there on $HPS.a more custom transformers inside the DC to handle larger and more complex loads.

[Twoandtwenty @twoandtwenty2]

@aleabitoreddit It will 2x from here $16-18 EPS in ‘28

[Twoandtwenty @twoandtwenty2]

@aleabitoreddit @Ren_aramb Can you explain rough revenue/earnings math to drive that?
DM me if you want to chat $HPS.to numbers. I’m large holder.

[Twoandtwenty @twoandtwenty2]

@FreightAlley Craig, your content is awesome. You are a must follow in the freight space. I am bullish freight in 26 and long a mix of different modals including outperforming ($XPO), and underperforming ($TFII $SAIA $FWRD) freight equities. Do you have preferred names to own?

[Twoandtwenty @twoandtwenty2]

@bucketshopcap -350bps is wrecked??

[Twoandtwenty @twoandtwenty2]

@PythiaR Couldn’t agree more with this take.

[Twoandtwenty @twoandtwenty2]

@310Value This is a pretty big deal and could be a precursor to a takeout.

[Twoandtwenty @twoandtwenty2]

@rev_cap Per UBS and RBC majority of the HPS capex revisions to ‘26 #s was driven by memory (price & units)

[Twoandtwenty @twoandtwenty2]

@checkfoldriver @leevalueroach Ackman manages almost entirely permanent capital. Does not care at all about flows.

[Twoandtwenty @twoandtwenty2]

@JohnHuber72 Interesting viewpoint. I would argue one of Buffet’s greatest talents was identifying and evaluating the durability of economic moats.

[Twoandtwenty @twoandtwenty2]

@RickPalaciosJr @rev_cap @conorsen ARMs have been cheaper most of the year than FRMs. When I meet with builder mgmt teams they say consumers don’t want ARMs because of GFC connotations. Why is that going to change in 26? Genuinely curious as it makes economic sense.

[Twoandtwenty @twoandtwenty2]

Why isn’t $ZM a buy at HSD FCF yield, MSD rev growth, improving momentum, and agentic AI optionality?

[Twoandtwenty @twoandtwenty2]

@rev_cap He’s a balance sheet hawk which is terrible for the long end and doesn’t help Bessent’s stealth QE

[Twoandtwenty @twoandtwenty2]

@bucketshopcap If GCP accelerates to 40%+ think it can trade at 25-27x. 27x is Not quite $400 but close.