Uriel

College student studying finance🇺🇸🇭🇳

[Uriel @uri2069]

@pepemoonboy Holy doomer. let the youngjns eat fr

[RickyN @RickyN168]

@TradingThomas3 They gonna fix the job and CPI numbers so that fed wont hike before midterm 😂

[Uriel @uri2069]

@RickyN168 @TradingThomas3

[Uriel @uri2069]

@LordPos3idon @EconBerger I agree, and like how you think!

[Uriel @uri2069]

@EconBerger Pretty interesting, Why do you think that is?

[Uriel @uri2069]

@EconBerger Any guesses for tmrs unemployment data?

[Uriel @uri2069]

@WarrenPies @rev_cap @3PeaksTrading How is the political pressure to raise rates when the secretary of the treasury is actively pushing for ycc through issuance of shorter term debt for longs - raising rates here would be counterintuitive to the govs current fiscal strategy

[Uriel @uri2069]

@farrmacro @pvp_trader No one is disregarding the uptick in inflation. It’s the fact that a rate hike will do nothing to help the situation

[Uriel @uri2069]

@farrmacro @pvp_trader what other "things" that are up in prices aren't affected by downstream oil sectors? Oil up > cost to make anything go up > less money to employ > prices go up > - joe spend more money on gas more expensive things > hike rates and now he's also unemployed🤘

[Uriel @uri2069]

If they were truly independent, disregarding the markets expectations/preferences would also attest to it. Warsh himself has stated many times that he looks to push the Fed away from providing any sort of forward guidance regarding Fed decision making, moving away from influencing the market and vice versa. If the market interpreted his latest speech as forward guidance for a hike - how would a hike succeed in setting the end of forward guidance precedent that Warsh is clearly seeking? Not to mention the success a hike would even have in the midst of a weakening labor market and supply shock.

[Uriel @uri2069]

@anduriltech @MegatrendGlobal $OSS ? 🙏😩

[Uriel @uri2069]

What will a hike do other than weaken the real economy? Yields won't come down and oil wouldn't go down as it's driven by the conflict - the gov would be paying a higher yield on its debt, leading to even more inflation - an already cooling labor market would suffer from this (not to mention the effects this would have on the stock market, which has been the roots for the economies current resilient spending)

[Uriel @uri2069]

@EconBerger when do initial claims come out?

[Uriel @uri2069]

@LizThomasStrat which means less people are hiring, and less people are confident in better opportunities in the market for their current roles

[Uriel @uri2069]

@JesseMcCallum83 @zerohedge good stuff

[Uriel @uri2069]

@chabot_ben @SamanthaLaDuc Does the Iran conflict sparking up again, easing oil, delay the Feds intentions to act (hike)?

[Uriel @uri2069]

@thejaypee31 @SwingTraderQ It has almost everything to do with the latter, along with extensive capex spending. When you have a war putting significant pressure on the exporting and pricing of oil, the downstream pricing effects are drastic, as rising oil prices affect most things that people buy/make

[Uriel @uri2069]

@male1gr @dampedspring I think based off his stance on discontinuing forward guidance, him talking hawkish while maintaining rates in sept would affirm that stance

[Uriel @uri2069]

@RichFidei @DrJStrategy I feel like him maintaining rates in sept is affirmation for the discontinuation of forward guidance then, especially if he deliberately was talking hawkish at jh

[Uriel @uri2069]

@stewfortier @HesomParhizkar Go outside