Steven Pelayo

Equity analyst focused on tech hardware companies... mostly chipmakers.

[Steven Pelayo @usatohk]

@MRC_SLC @StrongTowns The wind blows both ways... In our town, it has become so difficult to work with City Hall. This reputation has become well known and resulted in fewer investors willing to work with our community. In the meantime, job losses, blight and commercial vacancies continue on the rise.

[Steven Pelayo @usatohk]

@ChangeWash How do you know the bill is dead? Can you point me to a link?

[Steven Pelayo @usatohk]

@pfenske1 @CaltransDist3 Stopped on westbound Highway 50 after White Hall (before Kyburz)

[Steven Pelayo @usatohk]

@institLPGP Thanks for the shout out. To be clear, >95% of ACMR revenue is from China. From 10K, top four customers were 52% of last year. Call me if you want to chat. My name and contact info is at the bottom of every press release.

[Steven Pelayo @usatohk]

@SecretaryBurgum Hurricane Ridge in Olympic National Park will likely see a record number of visitors this year. The lodge at the top burned down in May 2023. Given its popularity, can you prioritize the funding and timing to get a new lodge rebuilt ASAP? See data here: https://t.co/Q41MMbhH2z

[Steven Pelayo @usatohk]

@SecretaryBurgum @Interior Port Angeles, Washington, the gateway to the Olympic National Park could use some help! Let's start with rebuilding the Lodge on Hurricane Ridge (destroyed by fire in May 2023) and reopening the Elhwa Valley campsites and trails (closed due to road washout in Nov 2015).

[Steven Pelayo @usatohk]

@rwang07 Expectations for 2025?

[Steven Pelayo @usatohk]

@lithos_graphein @jaygoldberg I am clearly getting old. I was involved with the Cymer IPO. I remember talking to Bob Akins and Richard Sandstrom about EUV source power 20+ years ago and their first switch from DPF to LPP.

[Steven Pelayo @usatohk]

@lithos_graphein Intel passed on CMP? I thought they were IPEC’s largest customer when they had dominate CMP market share in the mid to late 90s? The CEO Sanjeev Chitre was another one of the colorful characters around semi caps back then.

[Steven Pelayo @usatohk]

@bgurley @Ben_Jones85 @kyleichan You are correct. The raw wafer players are in Japan (Sumco and Shinetsu), Europe (Siltronic) and Taiwan (Global Wafers). However, don’t forget about silicon production for solar. China dominates there so I suspect someone like GCL may be trying to make higher purity wafers.

[Steven Pelayo @usatohk]

@lithos_graphein Export controls are driving faster domestic substitution. Total China WFE was $38bn (Gartner) in 2024 and forecasted to fall to $28bn in 2025. However, spending with China domestic equipment suppliers was ~$7-8bn in 2024, and heading higher every year for the foreseeable future.

[Steven Pelayo @usatohk]

@Luce_On_TSLA I’d want to know more about the assumptions and accounting behind those numbers. The slide says Non GAAP as well. Would be interesting to know assumed revenue per wafer (hinting to volume, capacity and utilization, and transfer pricing), yields, and the depreciation in COGS.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

It was an honor to pay my respects to Akie Abe, widow of PM Abe, upon her visit to Mar-a-Lago to have dinner with @realDonaldTrump and @MELANIATRUMP.

My condolences to the people of Japan for their loss. 🇯🇵

[Steven Pelayo @usatohk]

@lithos_graphein Is it true that there were dozens of Intel employees in Wilton cherry picking the best lenses? Some people blame Intel for exploiting many semicap players (SVG, Gasonics, PRI Automation, etc). Their PICOS strategy killed many of the small guys.

[Steven Pelayo @usatohk]

@lithos_graphein I miss the chaos of Papken and Art Z. The old guardsmen of US lithography

[Steven Pelayo @usatohk]

@KONP1450 FYI. The link to the story is broken

[Steven Pelayo @usatohk]

@witeken Can you really compare TSM vs NVDA revenue? One is a supplier. The other an end brand. If you want to do that, just double TSMCs revenue to account for the 50% gross margin its customers make on the products TSM produces for them.

[Steven Pelayo @usatohk]

@PaulyAlcorn @intel Reminds me when Global Foundries bought Chartered. They didn’t need the capacity, but they wanted the existing customer list. Is Intel IFS executing the same strategy?