Vala Zeinali

KSU Alum | Dartmouth Alum | Pure Prop Commodities trading @ a Fund | EX-LDC trader. Trading derivatives on 🛢️🌱🌽 🌾 using machine learning + fundamentals.

[Vala Zeinali @ValaZeinali]

count me in

[Bushels 🌾 Barrels 🛢 & Bullion 💰 @BuBarrelBull]

The next generation of elite investors will be born from commodities markets. Most investors have only seen markets rise (w/ the occasional Fed put) and yet felt compelled to buy monkey GIFs and funny money. They’re in for a rough ride. Commodities traders endured Enron, the rise and fall of China, trade wars, and COVID. We don’t fall for obvious scams. We can handle chop. The rest are fucked.

[Vala Zeinali @ValaZeinali]

@Globalflows Wait so IV will climb as global liquidity stalls? Please show me your IV regression to Global liquidity. Bitcoin vol is skewed to the upside, not downside... Also GL is not stalling. You need to also look at CTA shorts in SPX, we are in for a massive MR to upside.

[Vala Zeinali @ValaZeinali]

@gabcryptoversit @milesdeutscher boom, 100%

[Vala Zeinali @ValaZeinali]

@UnForgeron you need to retrain your models on NQ and then execute them on TQQQ. You cant train your model with TQQQ data.

[Vala Zeinali @ValaZeinali]

250k BTC | 12.5k ETH | 1k SOL 🎯

[Vala Zeinali @ValaZeinali]

@Rob_Jones19 good work here! I have a similar private dashboard. How are you getting daily liquidity?

[Vala Zeinali @ValaZeinali]

@dgt10011 so IBIT leaps?

[Elena @VirtualElena]

Spent dinner last night with my bf discussing the hierarchy of man.

He then used his PE slide-making abilities and sent me this today.

[Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook]

"In the first two months of the year, the S&P 500 has followed its typical pattern for the post election cycle."

@granthawkridge

[Vala Zeinali @ValaZeinali]

@GrainStats

[Vala Zeinali @ValaZeinali]

@RobertMSterling now think of how to find the father with the least amount of tests done. This becomes a binary search problem.

[Vala Zeinali @ValaZeinali]

@hamptonism bro you are not new to this trade lmaooo. This has been a trade for over 3 years. Go back to using your student bloomie to farm engagement.

[Vala Zeinali @ValaZeinali]

@GrainsGorilla scoreboard

[Vala Zeinali @ValaZeinali]

@GrainsGorilla Bruh I have no idea how you still have a job 🤣

[Vala Zeinali @ValaZeinali]

@MichaelWSpike @GrainsGorilla It's okay, he can clean my PH bathrooms for some side cash. Occasionally I will give him some market color and throw him a bone.

[Vala Zeinali @ValaZeinali]

@cointradernik you have it on the money man!

[Nik @cointradernik]

Everyone gets horny about M2 because they think rising M2 = liquidity = uponly.exe

So they must be confounded by the fact that Global M2 is pushing new all-time highs but their shitcoins continue to underperform

Whilst rising M2 does appear to support things of actual value (equities, Bitcoin, gold etc.) your shitcoins are purely a phenomenon of speculative excess

If you want to see speculative excess, you need surplus dollars to those being spent in the real economy — now look at this chart and tell me what you notice…

If you need some help, Global M2 (blue) has been growing at roughly the same rate as Global GDP (white) this cycle (of course, there is lag in this data), ergo where is the surplus currency to funnel into speculative excess?

Looking for the reason why this cycle has felt more difficult than previous ones? I believe this is precisely why

For all the easiness of financial conditions over the past 2 years, most of the growth in M2 globally is being spent on goods & services

You want shitcoins to outperform BTC en-masse, you need Global M2 growth to outpace Global GDP growth — this in turn allows for an excess pool of nominal currency with nowhere to go except speculation (and to a lesser degree consumer inflation & being hoarded)

Throw this chart into ChatGPT or Grok and see what they have to say…

I write about this phenomenon at length in my Financial Deepening post at @ostium:

https://t.co/v8PWKRjRsp

(P.S I also believe this explains why since the 1990s we’ve seen historical peaks in equity PE ratios become modern troughs)

[Nik @cointradernik]

Created a very rudimentary script to visualise this more clearly and it appears that when the delta between the YoY Growth Rate in Global M2 vs Global GDP is above ~1.1%+, alts do better than Bitcoin, broadly speaking

When that delta is negative, which it has been since ~Dec 2021, alts underperform BTC

It just flipped above 1.1% for the first time since then... (more confluence for my view that now is a relatively opportune moment to be overweight alts vs BTC)

(Again, obviously there are lags here due to how the data is released and this is by no means a perfect visualization of the phenomenon I'm highlighting)

[Market Minute LLC @MarketMinuteLLC]

The funds are long +364k corn 🌽

Price of corn last time the funds were this long?

+$8.00 back in April 2022

Of course I’m not saying corn is going to $8.

But just because the funds are pretty much “max long” doesn’t mean they simply have to puke out of their long position.

They can stay long for a while.

For example:

Last time the funds were long +350k, they held that long from November 2021 up until April 2022. That is 5 months.

The funds did not go from record short to nearly record long in the span of 6 months for no rhyme or reason.

The funds will not puke out of their near record long for no rhyme or reason.

There will be a reason eventually, but I don’t see that reason today.

I’d have to imagine they continue to hold and see how this US growing season shapes up. They are probably also waiting to see how the 2nd corn crop in Brazil turns out.

The global balance sheet can’t really handle a major loss and the funds are well aware of that.

***
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[Vala Zeinali @ValaZeinali]

@AgTwitCCO