Johan Eklund, CFA

Your Value-Biased Analyst.

Long-term investor?
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Disclaimer: Not advice. Consult trusted advisor

[Johan Eklund, CFA @ValueEklund]

Like the idea of using common sense to try to score overlooked bargains?

In stock markets?

Then you may very well be a value investor.

To learn more and get global value stock ideas:

Your Analyst's publication PiggyBack @PiggybackStocks offers a free weekly.

Join us(!)🐖🐖🐖

[PiggyBack @HiddenValueCom]

Are you a long-term, common sense stock market investor?

Our publication will PiggyBack on proven and promising value investing. We offer learning and global value stock ideas.

1️⃣We offer a free weekly letter. Join us(!)🐖🐖🐖
2️⃣Follow 📻| RT/Share 📢| Like 💚 @PiggybackStocks

[PiggyBack @HiddenValueCom]

Whether we are suited to trade global macro, as active stock market investors we are affected by what major markets do short-term.

In many stocks this is true long-term as well.

For great #newsletter sources of free(!) insights on market read across and trading risk smarter
⬇️

[PiggyBack @HiddenValueCom]

Investing is an information game:

(1) Input x (2) Processes +/- (3) Messy Randomness
= Risk-Return Outcome

A source of (1) & (2) that challenges us with new perspectives is a mixed diet of select #newsletters.

A few Recommendations that offer #investing insight (for free!)
⬇️

[The Transcript @TheTranscript_]

Here's why @SamRo, @InvestmentTalkk, @PiggybackStocks, @RihardJarc, @Fritz844, @MarcRuby, & @MarcRuby enjoy our weekly newsletter.

You too can become a premium subscriber to keep supporting our work here: https://t.co/pgEoID6dIq

[PiggyBack @HiddenValueCom]

Are you a long-term, common sense stock market investor?

Our publication PiggyBack:s on proven and promising value #investing. We offer learning and global value #stock ideas.

1️⃣We offer a free weekly letter. Join us(!) 🐖🐖🐖
2️⃣Follow 📻| RT/Share 📢| Like 💚 @PiggybackStocks

[PiggyBack @HiddenValueCom]

Want independent, distinct sources of value investing ideas and strategy?

With generous amounts of free content?

These @substack #newsletter publications are reading Recommendations for anyone interested in #valueinvesting (and great inspiration for PiggyBack)

⬇️

[ValuationBot @ValuationBot]

Asian and Eastern European companies, beset by debt crises and war, are battening down the hatches. These companies are retaining most of their income and reinforcing their balance sheets

[Johan Eklund, CFA @ValueEklund]

#finanstwitter & #snus-lovers

🇸🇪 Intressant poddanalys kring Philip Morris bud på Swedish Match för 106 SEK/aktie (aktien ~110 SEK)

🇺🇸/🇬🇧 Interesting podcast analysis on $PM:s 106 SEK/share $SWMA-offer (share ~110 SEK)
⬇️

https://t.co/0c6fzTFzle @ChrisDeMuthJr @AndrewRangeley

[Johan Eklund, CFA @ValueEklund]

@InvestmentTalkk Certainly a better time than when it is all ponzi/#momentum/blue skies

Even better(?):

Buying pockets with beyond doubt panicking marginal sellers

Be open to rotate into forced liquidations, defensive share issues etc
Not comfortable but skews risk-reward

If/when we get there

[Johan Eklund, CFA @ValueEklund]

🇬🇧 Well that escalated quickly for British financial system(?)

A historical reminder from Edmund Simms on a day when #BOE (central bank) bailed out parts of the country's bond market⬇️

Look forward to #UK-based @ValuablOfficial's analysis of this crisis and others at risk (🇸🇪)

[ValuationBot @ValuationBot]

In his 1873 book, Lombard Street: a description of the money market, Walter Bagehot wrote, "In consequence, a long-continued low rate of interest is almost always followed by a rapid rise in that rate."

We see this now.

1/3

[Johan Eklund, CFA @ValueEklund]

Because it's a great #investing book #podcast:

[Investing by the Books Podcast @IB_Redeye]

Reading books is great; discussing them with their authors is even better.

Here are our talks with the people behind five incredible investing books:

[Johan Eklund, CFA @ValueEklund]

Dear Norwegian 🇳🇴 neighbors.

Coming up with these "better" profit redistribution surprises is just bad long-term policy if you want low cost foreign capital:

https://t.co/6sKVMj44Mc

But as one of the world's most resource-rich countries (per capita), I guess you can afford it?

[Johan Eklund, CFA @ValueEklund]

@TSOH_Investing @PiggybackStocks @substack @Fritz844 @InvestedComms Well of course Alex, you are a great source of analysis and inspiration!

[Johan Eklund, CFA @ValueEklund]

@Edelweiss_Cap @VisualCap VR/AR/MR/XR?

[Johan Eklund, CFA @ValueEklund]

"We know when the Fed is actively hiking, when this is causing problems among dollar borrowers around the world, when there is a potential FX war, EM countries are failing, war is still raging in Europe, inflation is causing real pain"

So Stay Vigilant⬇️

https://t.co/V6oMt7KEt2

[Johan Eklund, CFA @ValueEklund]

~4-5% nominal USD base rates in <15 months.

Would break things badly in recent year ZIRP long-duration investments.

To riskier investments add #recession damage of lost cash flow + risk spread spikes.

Cyclical #realestate comes to mind. CPI-indexed rent hikes in stagflation...

[Alf @MacroAlf]

''Trust me, our tightening will be enough to bring inflation down to 2%. It will be enough''.

That's how Powell closed the press conference, and this strong message is reflected in the updated Dot Plot.

Something I found interesting there...

2/

[PiggyBack @HiddenValueCom]

#FridayFeeling:s to all long-term, common sense stock market investors out there!

PiggyBack proven and promising value #investing, learning, and global value #stock ideas.

1️⃣We offer a free weekly letter. Join us(!) 🐖🐖🐖
2️⃣Follow 📻| RT/Share 📢| Like 💚 @PiggybackStocks

[Johan Eklund, CFA @ValueEklund]

Rates for moving floating boxes around the world are coming down

Danish container bellwether $MAERSK/$MAERSKB trades below 2x current operating earnings (EV/EBIT). Sell-side consensus sees ~85% drop (EBIT) from 2022 to 2024. Source: @theTIKR

That cyclicality is not to play with

[Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen]

The collapse in global #container #freight rates gathering pace with the Drewry Composite down 10% on the week to $4.5k pr 40 ft. box, and lowest since Dec 2020. Down 57% from the Sept 21 peak but 3X the pre-pandemic avg. All major China to US and EU routes slump #SupplyChains

[Johan Eklund, CFA @ValueEklund]

King Coal's last puff?

#deepvalue #coal

[PiggyBack @HiddenValueCom]

4) Loosely related (not covered in article):

PiggyBack's @substack colleague @ValuablOfficial pitches near #ESG "uninvestable" Bogdanka/$LWB's Polish coal in Commonstock's Sept Idea Comp

No investment reco but:

1 Follow Edmund
2 @JoinCommonstock (literally)
3 Read/Upvote

[PiggyBack @HiddenValueCom]

Value investing in #bearmarket:s requires keeping a cool head.

[Johan Eklund, CFA @ValueEklund]

@AdamSinger Would not recommend PiggyBack* to anyone not aspiring to be a long-term, active stock market investor.

But for those who are, this self-publishing venture will hopefully deliver its nuggets of value over time:

https://t.co/HTOTqHPq5y @PiggybackStocks

⚠️ * Self-promotion alert.