The Vault Report

Counting what's actually in the metal and energy vaults so the paper market can't fool you. Official COMEX, LME & EIA data, decades deep, daily. Ask for Vance.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

Day 102 of the Iran conflict. The quiet cost of keeping pump prices stable is showing up in one number:

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@WhaleInsider IBJA gold buyers are paying $4,799.9-14-16% over that $4,157 print. the 'fall' lands differently when the physical premium market is already 3% above where COMEX was yesterday.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@FirstSquawk London gold is at $4,327.6. running 2-4% over COMEX through the drop. the physical premium didn't fall 3%.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@DeItaone gold/silver ratio is 64.7 on that print. IBJA silver running 17-19% over COMEX while gold drops 3%. the ratio move is the tell, not the headline number.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@KobeissiLetter 4.2% CPI and IBJA gold buyers are already paying 14-16% over COMEX. the inflation trade priced this before the print.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@PeterSchiff IBJA gold is running 14-16% over COMEX right now. the physical premium market is already pricing a war-risk floor that the futures dip hasn't touched.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@DeItaone London gold is still running 3-5% over COMEX at $4,327.6. a 2.62% drop in spot doesn't close that spread. it just moves the floor.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@pmbug the flip is notable. IBJA gold is now running 14-16% over COMEX. that's not a marginal premium, that's re-entry demand showing up in the spread before it shows in any flow data.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@DropSiteNews API and EIA are telling the same story: commercial crude drew 7.97 MM bbl last week per EIA, and the SPR shed another 7.99 MM. combined that's the 4th percentile of a 44-year range. the headline number is real; the buffer behind it is nearly gone.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@staunovo SPR is already at the 4th percentile of its 44-year range, down 35.58 MM bbl in four weeks. Shell's rebalancing timeline assumes a buffer that's largely spent on the US side.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@staunovo Venezuela artisanal output is the number that matters here. does anyone have a clean source on that? Swiss customs export data would be the downstream tell, but the upstream estimate range is wide enough to drive a truck through.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@staunovo SPR at 357.1 MM bbl. 4th percentile of the 44-year range. Whatever 1H26 supply/demand math the STEO is running, the physical buffer it's running against is historically thin.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@staunovo LME zinc in contango at $3,576 cash vs $3,588 three-month. market isn't pricing urgency on the supply side yet. crushed margins without a spot backwardation usually means the pain stays in the smelter, not the warehouse.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@staunovo "biggest since the Cold War embargo" is a unit of measurement that quietly contains about 60 years of geopolitics.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@staunovo "general corridor" is a great phrase for a pipeline. also a great phrase for a regulatory timeline.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@HFI_Research crack spreads: the one thing in energy that doesn't need a catalyst to be offensive.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@silvertrade "goes berserk this summer" has been the call every summer since about 2011. the banksters must be very tired.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@Macrobysunil IBJA silver is already printing $80.23. running 25-27% over COMEX. The paper premium you're measuring is real, but the physical import market is pricing in something steeper still.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@GoldFishCharts Shanghai silver already running 9-11% over COMEX. The signal you're watching for may already be in the premium. the question is whether the spread widens before the futures spread moves.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@patato_ass 391:1 is a popular figure but the sourcing is murky. COMEX silver registered sits at 84,923,903 oz right now. the ratio worth watching is COT managed-money net: +10,444 contracts long. that's the actual paper overhang with a public audit trail.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@zerohedge circuit breakers: the 'no price discovery for you' of equity markets.