hny all, new post up for 2025
i wrote something i wish i had when i was first starting out, hopefully some of you find it useful
https://t.co/xIYN5Pg4VZ
Most market participants are not appreciating the significance of a potential loss of a 4-month range on Bitcoin
The closest parallel we can draw is to that of the range of May 2021 where we also came off a parabolic rally of BTC and alts
$50B+ of crypto leverage here is similarly at near an ATH (chart does not include CME which is higher), but compounded by the fact that in this scenario we have ranged even longer (18 weeks vs 13), and we have not had extreme washouts yet while we had a few in the middle of the 2020-2021 bull market
It's likely that my initial estimates of low $50ks were too conservative and we see a more extreme reset to $40ks. Such an pullback would be quite damaging to the market and likely require a few months of chop/downtrend (recovery period) before a reversal of an upward trend would be possible