Amir Rahnavard

problematic

[Mark R. Levin @marklevinshow]

My opening statement tonight on Life, Liberty & Levin

https://t.co/I4dnZZlXt1

[Hossein Aghaie, Ph.D. @Haghaie]

🚨My two cents about how the IRGC regime operates & how to conclude the war in Iran:

The war must conclude in such a way that the Iranian people are empowered by the outside players, namely the US and Israel, and are fully prepared to overthrow the #IRGC-controlled regime. Any settlement or deal that ensures the regime’s survival would amount to a strategic defeat for the US and Israel.

In reality, the remnants of the regime still possess enough offensive capabilities to threaten the region and beyond. The US and #Israel can use the most powerful and lethal weapon---the Iranian people---to rid themselves of the remaining threats once and for all.

To be sure, the people in Iran are now faced with a fragmented leadership, marked by serious rifts within the political factions. The country's economy is in ruins. The regime has sustained deep wounds and is effectively bleeding as a corollary of the elimination of top military commanders and political leaders, etc.

The regime is reportedly losing between $450 million and $500 million per day due to the US's Hormuz blockade. However, there is no guarantee that such economic losses will lead to its immediate collapse or overthrow; it may well resort to further acts of violence and terrorist activities abroad.

Overall, the Islamic Republic regime is down but it is not out. Sadly, more innocent people are being executed since an uneasy ceasefire took hold in mid-April.

This is simply because the core nucleus of power ---the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps---remains functional. It has literally engineered a silent coup under the cover of war, sidelining other contenders such as Ghalibaf---with whom Trump is reportedly seeking a possible framework to end the conflict.

The Trump admin and the European powers should be mindful that from within the Islamic Republic regime, no so-called reformist figure like Mikhail Gorbachev will emerge; from this regime, only terrorists come out, wearing a mask of diplomatic civility!

Israel, whether one agrees or not, has a strong understanding of the modus operandi of this regime, largely because it has developed extensive expertise in countering terrorist networks, many of which are supported or enabled by the lunatics in Tehran.

In this view, the world should recognize the fact that the disintegration of the IRGC can not be achieved through negotiation or maritime blockade alone. Such an outcome requires a hybrid strategy, centered on the imposition of maximum economic pressure as well as constant military operations, even if low-intensity warfare by the US and Israel for the purpose of, inter alia, empowering the Iranian people to topple the regime.

If decision-makers in Tehran conclude that the United States ultimately wants to avoid continued conflict, they may be incentivized to prolong the confrontation in a more attritional form, using stalling tactics and deception to buy time. In parallel, they could gradually escalate tensions below the threshold of an all-out war in an effort to extract concessions, particularly if they believe the US is seeking to end the conflict without committing to regime change.

The key, therefore, is to deprive the regime the notion that Trump seeks an off-ramp in this war and instead shift towards sustained kinetic military operations so that IRGC faces only two options: Total surrender or regime change!

I argue that the IRGC will not fully acquiesce to US conditions. Instead, it may accept certain demands while rejecting others in order to prolong the conflict and extend the diplomatic process.

So, the best way to neutralize the threats of the IRGC regime in Tehran is to take the following considerations into account:

- Target/eliminate the regime’s third tier of current and former leaders (e.g., Ghalibaf, Rouhani, Zarif, Khatami, Radan, Zolghadr, Ejei, etc...)

- Seize Iran's buried uranium stockpile before it is too late!

- Maintain the maritime blockade and expand it to other areas such as Indo-Pacific, aimed at cutting off the regime's financial lifeline.

- Provide Israel greater latitude for targeted operations against IRGC and Basij commanders and low-level security forces, and offer drone support to Iranian protesters (close air support).

- Directly enable people inside Iran through intelligence assets (gatekeepers, pointmen, HUMINT, etc) and logistical support to capture the regime's' strategic institutions themselves in the middle of an uprising.

- Engage with Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi in a manner reminiscent of Reagan’s outreach to Sakharov, fostering dialogue with the most consequential Iranian opposition leader, backed by the vast majority of people inside #Iran.

In sum, the conflict involving the US and the IRGC should be resolved in a way that fundamentally weakens the current regime and increases the agency of the Iranian population. Any negotiated settlement allowing the regime to remain intact would be a strategic setback for the United States and Israel. The US and Israel have the people of Iran as the most powerful and lethal army against the terrorist regime in Tehran.

@POTUS
@IranIntl
@SecRubio
@netanyahu
@SecWar
@PahlaviReza

[Reza Pahlavi @PahlaviReza]

Whether or not Europe stands with us, whether or not your journalists do their jobs, whether or not your politicians demonstrate the courage to act, I will fight for my people and my country.

[Amir Rahnavard @vibevalue]

HOLY MOLY

[Amir Rahnavard @vibevalue]

METHHEAD

[Amir Rahnavard @vibevalue]

ACIDOPHILIA

[Amir Rahnavard @vibevalue]

SHAMANISM

[Amir Rahnavard @vibevalue]

A DIGITAL SHITHOLE

[Amir Rahnavard @vibevalue]

MANIPULATION

[Amir Rahnavard @vibevalue]

EYELAND

[Amir Rahnavard @vibevalue]

LOVE & LUNACY

[Amir Rahnavard @vibevalue]

BIRTH

[Amir Rahnavard @vibevalue]

RÊVE

[Amir Rahnavard @vibevalue]

SERENITY

[Amir Rahnavard @vibevalue]

rebugging

[Amir Rahnavard @vibevalue]

Ætheris

[Amir Rahnavard @vibevalue]

MASTERMIND

[Amir Rahnavard @vibevalue]

BALLAD OF LSD