Victor Bellum

Betting on Tesla while the clowns bet on headlines. Let’s see who ages worse.

[Victor Bellum @VictorBellum]

Why you shouldn’t hold TSLL long term?

I bought 6000 shares of $TSLL last year June/July at an avg price of $20.87.

$TSLA was trading in the $270’s at that time.

This morning, more than 15 months later, I broke even on my TSLL when TSLA price was in the $330’s.

This is because of the inherent decay on leveraged ETF’s like TSLL, NVDL, etc.

Please be cautious when taking the plunge into leveraged ETFs to avoid becoming a bag holder. Set your stop losses.

@ewtracker @wholemars @kylaschwaberow @pdicarlotrader @vol888
@TeslaBoomerMama

[Victor Bellum @VictorBellum]

lol…that’s how jokers are made on X platform

[Tesla King @TeslaKing420]

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😀😀😂

[Victor Bellum @VictorBellum]

Hey @ABC - you are a shameless POS

[Victor Bellum @VictorBellum]

@ElectrekCo - you are the joke of the decade 😄😄

[Whole Mars Catalog @wholemars]

aged like milk

[Victor Bellum @VictorBellum]

James is a blessing to the Tesla community 😃😃

[James Stephenson @ICannot_Enough]

I can think of 3 more obvious frauds. 😇

[Victor Bellum @VictorBellum]

@wholemars @GerberKawasaki is a certified moron

[Victor Bellum @VictorBellum]

Rings a bell

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Tesla has introduced a new form that you can fill out if you are interested in purchasing a fleet of Cybercabs:

Form: https://t.co/Ut0yoiEyXD

[Victor Bellum @VictorBellum]

😃😃😃

[Whole Mars Catalog @wholemars]

the new bear thesis is that Tesla is registering all these autonomous vehicles but won't actually use them to give rides

[Victor Bellum @VictorBellum]

Rings a bell.

[Bearded Tesla @BeardedTesla]

Bro, just caught this weirdo elderly man throwing mannequins in front of CyberCabs this morning. What the heck is going on in Austin?!?!

[Victor Bellum @VictorBellum]

Will need a telescope after a few days

[Whole Mars Catalog @wholemars]

the race is on

[Victor Bellum @VictorBellum]

😃😃😃🤡

[Farzad 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 @farzyness]

Tesla Cybercab is starting to REALLY ramp boys and girls.

The VINs insinuate that Tesla has produced ~2,500 Cybercabs thus far.

As Tesla continues to ramp production, the race is officially on to turn on as many geofenced locations - fully scaled - to deploy these vehicles ASAP.

By the end of the year, Tesla's weekly production runrate will likely be somewhere between 1,000 to 2,000 - which on the high side is about 100,000 units per year. Roughly 1/10th of Model Y's production call it.

Here's the big issue - 100k units is roughly 15% of Uber's TOTAL active ride share fleet in the US. Tesla would be manufacturing this PER YEAR, AT A MINIMUM, STARTING IN DECEMBER OF 2026.

That means that if Tesla were to ramp up Cybercab to December 2026 levels and STOP improving, Tesla would manufacture Uber's entire US active fleet IN ABOUT 6 YEARS, eating away 15% of Uber's rideshare revenue in the US every single year, which by year 2 would render Uber effectively unprofitable... AND ACCELERATING.

Now by default, this means that Tesla would need to begin to flood - AT THE BARE MINIMUM - about 15% of metro area populations by the end of 2027, and utterly destroy Uber's business model while they are at it.

Which would mean Uber stock collapsing, and tens of thousands of Uber drivers rendered obsolete due to their inability to compete on price, because the cost per mile of Cybercab will be ~$0.40, which is more than 4x cheaper than Uber - EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR.

The question becomes - how likely is it that Uber just takes this and allows it to happen? How much will they lobby government to slow it down? (hint hint they already are). What will this do to Waymo? Taxi networks? Legacy auto as people stop buying their dumb cars? Accident lawyers as safety profiles get far far far better because driverless cars are FAR safer?

On the flip side, what infrastructure will Tesla need to build for charging & cleaning? How much of that can they absorb with their current infrastructure? How will regulations play out national or state by state to allow Tesla to have a smooth ramp without creating too much disruption?

Anything less than this means Tesla would have to artificially slow down production of the Cybercab line, which at a bare minimum would jeopardize supplier contracts. If you told a network of suppliers you're gonna order X number of parts over X number of months, but you don't, that puts the supplier at risk and leaves them holding the bag. That's a big no-no.

The alternative is building the Cybercabs and letting them sit doing nothing in parking lots. Does that make sense to do when:

a) you are massively ramping up compute efforts to train FSD/Optimus which is extremely capital intensive in an age where the cost of capital is going up as the ROI for AI continues to increase
b) are in the process of starting production of Optimus with an entirely new production line and ambitions for tens of millions of units in the coming years and
c) are about to embark on an INSANE joint venture with SpaceX with Terafab which is ASTRONOMICALLY expensive?

Or - hear me out...

YOU PUT A STEERING WHEEL AND PEDALS IN THEM AND SELL THEM TO THE PUBLIC SO THAT YOU MITIGATE THIS RISK BY 100% AND YOU DOMINATE LITERALLY EVERYTHING AND NO ONE CAN STOP YOU BECAUSE IT'S NOT ILLEGAL TO SELL CARS WITH STEERING WHEEL AND PEDALS.

WOW WHAT A NOVEL IDEA.

$TSLA

[Victor Bellum @VictorBellum]

All those who laughed when Elon said self driving cars are going to flood the streets of Austin. …my 2 mins of silence

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Cybercabs are taking over Austin

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Cybercabs are taking over Austin

[Victor Bellum @VictorBellum]

Hey @Tesla_Optimus - please hurry up

[Victor Bellum @VictorBellum]

Probably nothing.

[James Stephenson @ICannot_Enough]

🚨BREAKING:
Tesla has been authorized by the State of Texas to operate driverless vehicles commercially under the new law that took effect today, May 28th, 2026. Tesla has officially self-certified the software running on its robotaxis as Level 4. $TSLA

[Victor Bellum @VictorBellum]

The best QA associate I have ever seen

[Dan O'Dowd @RealDanODowd]

BREAKING: Tesla self-driving finally passed @RealDawnProject's school bus test!

On 50 out of 50 test runs, FSD 14.3.2 correctly stopped for the stopped school bus.

After three years of campaigning, New York Times ads and Super Bowl commercials, Tesla has finally done the right thing and fixed this egregious safety defect.

However, HW3 Teslas running FSD v 12.6.4 will still illegally blow past the stopped school bus and run down a child crossing the road.

@ElonMusk, if the defects can't be fixed on the current hardware, FSD should be disabled until those vehicles have been upgraded.

@aelluswamy, your next task is to stop FSD 14 from speeding in school zones.

[Victor Bellum @VictorBellum]

“Rolling covered calls because I made a wrong bet, but I want to sound smart hence posting this”

[Greg Proctor @GregProctor]

All of the my 2800 $TSLA shares are covered with covered calls and because of the Wednesday-Friday 7% run up in share price, they are down about 100%. I'm not concerned and here's why.

Wednesday Morning $TSLA opened at $386. I decided to get cute and sell 28 CCs expiring that day at $407.5. I've been experimenting with the new intra-week expiration dates that the CBOE put into affect a few months back. By mid-afternoon I was in the money.

What I've learned over time, particularly with $TSLA, is that you can almost always roll out of covered call losses. So instead of letting my shares get taken away, I rolled my covered calls to June 18 (45ish DTE) at $450 strikes.

Thankfully I did because $TSLA continued to run and by Friday we were sitting at $428 a share. Now, what do I do from here?

Well if we continue to run, I'll roll out again before I get ITM. Eventually $TSLA will stop running, my CCs will decay away and I'll profit.

If $TSLA does not stop running, someone is going to take assignment of my shares in the $500s or $600s and I'll keep the premium and share appreciation up to the top.

I hope to market forces me to continue rolling up and out.🤞

If you can't tell, I LOVE options.

[Victor Bellum @VictorBellum]

“Somebody knows something” lol

[Tezlar @na_option]

What happened at close? $TSLA

[Victor Bellum @VictorBellum]

Crazy!! Wow!! 🤩

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Same here.

By way of background for those who care, I spent a lot of time last week with senior members of the Anthropic team to understand what they do to ensure Claude is good for humanity and was impressed.

Everyone I met was highly competent and cared a great deal about doing the right thing. No one set off my evil detector. So long as they engage in critical self-examination, Claude will probably be good.

After that, I was ok leasing Colossus 1 to Anthropic, as SpaceXAI had already moved training to Colossus 2.

[Victor Bellum @VictorBellum]

@SpiritAirlines

[Victor Bellum @VictorBellum]

AI is going to do something similar…