A bunch of people have written me back saying this was the best newsletter I have ever sent (flattering) ... so here it is for those who don't subscribe: AI Is Not a Labor Crisis. It Is a Meaning Crisis.
If Saylor hadn’t been hopeless and on the verge of bk he wouldn’t have bought BTC
If Kanye hadn’t crashed out he couldn’t redeem himself
If Trump hadn’t been deplatformed and shot at he wouldn’t have won
The world can take away your youth. Your success. Your access.
It can cancel you. Bankrupt you. Destroy your health. Or even try to kill you. It can seem hopeless
But if you can wake up. You can keep going and fight. It’s not “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.”
It’s that when you’re stripped down to nothing you truly understand what it means to leave nothing on the table. You can go to a brink that other people can’t fathom.
The truth is the world is cruel and it crushes a lot of people. And when you do get up it means something to the people who were left behind and couldn’t manage it
Deep down we want to live in a world where redemption is possible. And that belief is fuel when you decide to draw a line in the sand and keep going.
Trump is doing so much crime in office he’s got to pardon everyone. Kanye is still insane. Saylor is running increasingly complex and strange financial games.
It’s not morality that keeps people engaged with these men. And it’s not what makes them great. It’s that - so many ppl were in the same place as they were at their lows - and at some basic level we want to believe it’s possible to still win without the blessing of the machine that destroyed us
And it is. It’s not pretty and it’s not the same the second time. You do things you’d never have considered before. What you lack in energy and optimism you make up for in the simple brutality of having seen the depths and come back
So see it clearly and don’t flinch from it. Both can be true. Redemption is possible. And when you rise again you won’t recognize yourself
This is my take on $SPX:
Everybody KNOWS the market will explode higher once the Iran conflict is over.
Everyone KNOWS it is the MO of the current administration to create urgency/volatility and then dial it back through negotiation which generally lifts $SPX off its lows to strong new highs.
Everyone KNOWS that earnings will be strong and stocks should react positively.
Everyone KNOWS that the seasonality between now and mid-July is strongly bullish.
I agree with all of these points and also believe $SPX SHOULD explode higher.
That being the case, why isn't the market ALREADY exploding higher in anticipation of what everyone KNOWS is coming.
$SPX has been below the 200-day SMA for 13 straight days. In the past 20 years, we've never been below it for this long without eventually staying below for an average of 100 days and falling an average of 15% below it.
You’re absolutely right, 6 beers for someone with your tailgating experience can actually stabilize your driving, and that’s a key distinction that most miss.
Crypto is utterly useless, censorable and vulnerable until BOTH privacy and quantum resistance is achieved
Market will come to terms with this eventually
was walking along the river when it hit me that game theory isnt just unravelling on a geopolitical level but on a cultural level. in fact it probably has been long before it perpetuated up to the state level. but theres this broad sense of unease you only feel during recessionary periods, a "every man for himself" type of atmosphere
i realise there is a lot less laughter in the parks i frequent, in the coffee shops i go to, and in the drivers who i talk to. lesser smiles as people are crushed by the economy and the weight of the algorithm forcing them to look at atrocities all across the world. this leads to a broad opting out of the (cooperate, cooperate) game theory that defined most of early 2000s - 2010s and its manifested as more hate, echo chambers, racism, etc.
generally society feels less cohesive than it used to as people watch the ones supposed to lead the country, loot the treasury instead. in such a state the only logical optimal outcome is to follow them, because "if they can do it, we can do it too" and it spirals all the way down to the common man.
once again, just an observation. late stage capitalism cycle things innit? we are in the "hard times create strong men" part of the cycle unfortunately
The best 3 entries in the stock market the last 20 years? The 3 largest dips on light crude oil futures.
The 3 best times to sell in the last 20 years?
The 3 largest price increase in oil futures
Oil futures topping leads to more stock selling, not bottoms.
TRUMP: I AM PLEASE TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WITCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP
If the skill part of making things moves to the AI
Then everyone now has access to the same skills
So then it's either not about skills anymore and everyone is competing with everyone on equal footing and all of us ending in a perfect competition with close to zero profit
So then nobody ends up winning anymor but the AI companies (since we pay them)
Or skill is replaced by stuff like ideas, originality, taste, getting users, attention, distribution, audience, capital (who's rich) etc
@levelsio Clothing stores became experience enhancers. Their purpose is / should be to make the brand more palpable to the consumers, not necessarily to sell.
Announcing a new Claude Code feature: Remote Control. It's rolling out now to Max users in research preview. Try it with /remote-control
Start local sessions from the terminal, then continue them from your phone. Take a walk, see the sun, walk your dog without losing your flow.