Marc Vidal

[Marc Vidal @vidalmrc]

@Spartashish @UberRogerSmith @EvieEvil__ Mais bordel... Renseignez vous un minimum.
La Chine intègre l'économie de marché depuis 1979, suivi de réformes autorisant les investissements étrangers, la propriété privée.

La Chine à un parti unique, le PC, mais son économie ne ressemble en rien à votre fantasme.

[Marc Vidal @vidalmrc]

@montessus_de @Afuera59_ @Bloom__ow "Pleure"

L'arrogance de l'ignorant.

[Marc Vidal @vidalmrc]

@ZozoSansgants @jeromegodefroy Change de téléphone.

Je ne sais pas ce que tu utilises, mais je n'ai jamais eu a tenir mon téléphone de cette façon pour avoir une conversation téléphonique fluide et compréhensible des deux côtés.

[Marc Vidal @vidalmrc]

@Willmason643531 @AmericaArrogant @TheYcOrg So it costs less to produce this surplus food and then destroy it than it would cost to not produce it at all?

There is absolutely no logic. Every industry wants to reduce their cost of production, indeed to increase the margins.

Planned scarcity would involve producing less.

[Marc Vidal @vidalmrc]

@RebeixChristia2 @corbmarii @DOGDEGA C'était pas plutôt 30 millions de civil?

[Marc Vidal @vidalmrc]

@nazisfuera @MystereFreeze @DOGDEGA Montre nous ces rapports ou communiqués de l'OTAN et CEE qui appuient les chiffres que tu rapportes.

[Marc Vidal @vidalmrc]

@Nain_Portekoi L'un n'empêche pas l'autre, hein!

[Daniel Jeffries @Dan_Jeffries1]

This is the best and most balanced report I've read by Anthropic, free of many of the super sci-fi, everything-is-exponential language of some other reports I've read by this amazing team.

But one line is dead wrong. This one about recursive self-improvement:

"[If] AI systems themselves become capable of full recursive self-improvement, and begin building their successors...In this world, the pace of progress in AI development becomes determined entirely by the availability of compute (or the speed of discovering various efficiencies in algorithmic training or inference) for AI systems."

Compute is absolutely NOT the only limiting factor in recursive self-improvement and not even the most important one. They are two more:

1) Time
2) Multiplicity

Time is how long it takes to get an answer.

Multiplicity is when there is no right or wrong answers but only shades of gray with right(ish) answers and wrong(ish).

They even point to one of them (time) just a few paragraphs later:

"More intelligence can’t learn what a drug does over decades of use, can’t hold elections sooner than a constitution dictates, and can’t turn a stranger into an old friend in a weekend. For most people, the felt pace of this future will still be set by the bottlenecks, even if the laboratory upstream runs at the speed of compute. That collision, where recursive intelligence building itself ever faster meets the world of humans, relationships, and governance, is another part of this future we can’t predict."

But let me make it even more clear:

AI got good at code and games because they have great feedback loops and tight timelines. If the code works or does not, you know pretty quickly.

It good at driving for the same reasons. Don't die or drive off the road or hit someone are achievable (though difficult) goals with clear, fast feedback.

You cannot answer the question "is this a good article?" or "do I write well?" because that is multiplicity, shades of gray that are hard to judge.

Humans judge this by self-awareness and feedback from others. AI might be able to approximate the second but only if it develops more of the first (harder).

"Will my wife like this surprise present?" Hard to get good at that even if you're a master. Took me many years of trying and judging her responses. :)

Time is also a massive factor. The question of "did I make money in business?" can't be answered in a short time line. There is no way to know the answer faster, and short term success doesn't predict long term.

"Will this drug cause bad side effects twenty years from now?" That can only be answered in twenty years. No amount of compute changes that.

"Will this building fall down faster than this one if I build it a different way?" You can run basic physics and math rules to help you heuristically figure it out, but only time gives you the true answer.

These two constraints, time and multiplicity, are the death knell of any Doomer/Less Wrong fantasies about fast takeoff and instant super genius AI. You can have all the compute in the universe and you still can't compress twenty years of drug side effects into twenty minutes.

You can have a 500 trillion parameters and you still can't definitively answer "is this beautiful?" because beauty is not a optimization target with a clean gradient.

The recursive self-improvement loop doesn't hit a wall because of compute.

It hits a wall because of reality.

Reality is slow, messy, ambiguous, and full of questions that only time and lived experience can answer.

Compute is the bottleneck that engineers see because it's the one they can measure.

Time and multiplicity are the bottlenecks that the real world imposes and no amount of silicon can brute force past them.

That's why even nature only "solved" good/bad by brute force: evolution. Does this agent/human/creature survive and reproduce? That's good. Otherwise not good.

Companies follow the same rule. Did this survive and make money over time? Good. Otherwise bad.

Imperfect, lossy, dumb, blind, slow.

AI is changing the world already.

It will get better and better.

But the road to better is long and winding, not a vertical line to godhood.

And that should make you more hopeful, not less.

[Marc Vidal @vidalmrc]

@JuryAntonin Sans remettre en question l'intérêt de la réduction des inégalités, il faut pas déconner non plus. Les impacts ne se voient pas en 6 mois

Le communiqué de presse de la ville montre clairement chiffres à l'appui une tendance initiée par le maire précédent

https://t.co/l85s3zbtBq

[Marc Vidal @vidalmrc]

@Esban_ Les politiques de réductions d'inégalités ne se font jamais sentir sur le temps court.

La source citée par le tweet même que vous partagez ne parle d'ailleurs pas de ça, mais démontre clairement, chiffres à l'appui, une tendance amorcée par Eric Adams, le précédent maire.

[Marc Vidal @vidalmrc]

@Esban_ @Aristarquesamos Vous mentez.
NYC comme n'importe quelle ville démocrate, est visée par l'ICE et les maires ont un pouvoir très limité.

Le maire de Minneapolis bien qu'extrêmement opposé n'a rien pu faire.

5500 arrestation à NYC depuis 10/01/2025, et ça continue.
https://t.co/Owfz3s8zOP

[Marc Vidal @vidalmrc]

@TedPillows The stock market did what it always does and that's an absolute non event in the big picture.

[Marc Vidal @vidalmrc]

@LachaudB

[Marc Vidal @vidalmrc]

@PeppermintSw @sverresj No. Cancers always existed.

[Marc Vidal @vidalmrc]

@darnitdave710 @DishWish208 @sverresj Now you are comparing your omnipotent, omniscient and infinite God to random developers?

Jeez... The bar is get lower and lower.

[Marc Vidal @vidalmrc]

@yarotrof Tate brothers, Russia, and Christian traditional values in the same tweet

[Marc Vidal @vidalmrc]

@DeBunKerEtoiles Ils sortent le grand jeu!
Les frères Tate et Candace Owen!

[Marc Vidal @vidalmrc]

@Adrien_B_A Just block these been-there-done that rage bait cunts that will advise people who want to build something in Paris go live in fucking Shenzhen.

Go to Shenzhen if that's your dream. Fine.
But some people try to balance things that are important to them and that's not 100% work.

[Marc Vidal @vidalmrc]

@RV_Joly Voilà la gueule de la recherche au CNRS...

Heureusement vous n'êtes pas représentatif de tout ce qui se fait au CNRS, mais un avis de comptoir sans aucune anticipation des conséquences ça questionne.

[Marc Vidal @vidalmrc]

@Babar_le_Rhino C'est bon Babar, pas la peine de te fatiguer à pousser cette propagande.

Tous les Français connaissent les verres Duralex et savent très bien qu'ils se cassent comme n'importe quel verre.

Le pb de est bien identifié: mauvaise gestion et aucune réaction face à la concurrence.