Father first. Originated Stock Advisor at Value Research. Building research-led products for Indian retail investors. Markets, investing, food. Views my own.
Kunal Shah is off to run WhatsApp globally. A founder’s send-off usually invites applause. As a long-term investor, I’d rather look at the record.
FreeCharge: Snapdeal bought it for Rs 2,800 crore in 2015. Two years later it went to Axis Bank for about Rs 385 crore. An 86% collapse. Today it survives as a small captive app inside a bank.
CRED: still loss-making. FY25 revenue of Rs 2,735 crore, net loss of about Rs 1,457 crore. Valuation already down from $6.4B in 2022 to around $3.5B.
He reads consumers early and builds brands people remember. Fine. That isn’t the question for an owner.
The question is simpler. In 15 years, where is the business that actually compounds capital? Not the exit that enriched a cap table. Not the valuation from a funding round. A company that earns more than it spends, on its own steam.
There isn’t one yet.
Meta is now pouring Rs 8,550 crore into CRED as he walks away, and he keeps his stake. That tells you what the asset has always been. The story, not the cash flows.
Build something that makes money, or build something that raises money. He has done the second. The two are not the same, and an investor should never confuse them.
For the fans, before you react: I’m an equity analyst, not a cheerleader. My job is to tell a good business from a good story. He may be a remarkable founder and still not have built a remarkable investment. Those are two different questions.
The number of people driving with a phone in one hand lately is wild. You can spot them a mile off, crawling in the fast lane, wandering between lanes. Is it just me noticing this, or are you all seeing it too??
This Diwali, may the blessings of Lakshmi bring balance, clarity, and wisdom - in life and investing.
✨ Wishing you a bright and prosperous Diwali. ✨
🧵@VROStocks
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