vincent

[SentimenTrader @sentimentrader]

Gold traders got this gloomy after $GLD shed nearly 30%.

The last 8 times sentiment got this washed out since 2008, it was higher 1 month later. Every one of them.

A year out, same story.

Read full analysis: https://t.co/yKRjEsuvMu

[WALL ST JESUS @WallStJesus]

Morgan Stanley on $BABA

[Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath]

Here is what all these sideline commentators don’t understand:

THERE IS NO PRICE DUMPING IN OPEN SOURCE AI

China can price dump in manufacturing. Why? Because we destroyed our means of equivalent production and so can’t do the same.

But manufacturing is not AI.

China CANNOT price dump in open source AI. Why? Because everything in open source, by definition, is public domain and available to everyone at no cost. The most important thing that this means is that we can do the same thing as China as long as we have the will and the people to do it. And we have both.

- America is still the leader in frontier AI.
- America has the smartest developers.
- America has the most creative engineers.
- America has the leading silicon.
- America has the most advanced clouds.

The biggest risk in America is we are short electricity and China has a surplus of it.

So if they can somewhat catch up in some of the other areas above, they could beat us.

But as of right now, we are leading. There is no price dumping. We also want the price of intelligence tokens to go to zero.

So let’s get on with it and finish this on the field. But don’t fall for a stupid analogy.

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

Entering that tricky part of the calendar.. $SPX

[Barchart @Barchart]

Gold has now traded below its 200-day moving average for 31 consecutive trading days, the longest stretch since 2022 📉 📉

[SentimenTrader @sentimentrader]

Gold traders have thrown in the towel.

After a 28% slide in six months, GLD is showing the same washout seen 4 other times since 2004.
GLD was higher 3 months later every time. Same for 1 year later.

Still, $360 matters.

Read full analysis: https://t.co/FPDLfgOH87

[OpenAI @OpenAI]

ChatGPT Voice is now in the desktop app.

Control your computer and direct multiple agents running in ChatGPT Work or Codex, using just your voice.

It's powered by GPT-Live, so it can speak, listen, and coordinate work in the app at the same time.

Rolling out globally today on macOS and Windows to Plus, Pro, Business, Edu, and Enterprise plans.

[SentimenTrader @sentimentrader]

Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence (2026-07-23)

• Smart Money: 0.41
• Dumb Money: 0.54

Dumb Money Confidence is neutral and Smart Money Confidence is neutral.

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

Oracle $ORCL secured a nearly $7 billion, 10-year enterprise software agreement with the Pentagon.

The deal consolidates software licenses across the Defense Department, Coast Guard and intelligence community, with at least $441 million in expected taxpayer savings.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

“Our Mag7 basket finished -4.80%, the biggest one-day selloff in the last 5 years” - Goldman

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Institutional demand for Japanese government bonds surging:

Japanese insurers bought +$3.9 billion of 10+ year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) in June, the largest monthly purchase in 3 years.

This marks a sharp reversal from -$1.2 billion sold in the prior month.

This is also the 2nd consecutive monthly purchase over the last 11 months.

Insurers are one of the biggest domestic buyers of long-term JGBs, and their return could provide an important source of support for the market.

The shift comes as authorities move to strengthen domestic demand, including a proposal to allow government bonds in a tax-free investment program for individuals, and encourage large pension funds to increase allocations to Japanese assets.

Japan’s bond market may finally be finding a material source of demand.

[pale kirill @palekirill]

it could be so simple

[Neil Sethi NEW account, please refollow @neilsethinew]

Analysts at Signum Global Advisors led by Andrew Bishop have created a "TACO index" to attempt to discern when Pres Trump might de-escalate the Iran situation.

The index is comprised of Brent crude, the 10-year yield, the number of Hormuz crossings, and the SPX.

In backtesting they found that a 2.3 to 3.4 standard deviation move — or an average of 2.9 standard deviations -- has seen action from the President in the past.

Putting that in today’s terms, the analysts find it’s not yet time to TACO — but it’s getting closer. “Extrapolating linearly would suggest that a TACO could happen as early as July 22 and ‘should’ happen no later than July 30 (unless conditions materially improve, which seems unlikely) – with history suggesting July 26 as most likely,” they said.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Global investors have rarely been this bullish:

Bank of America's Bull & Bear Indicator is up to 9.6 points, the highest since December 2020.

The gauge measures equity and bond fund flows, hedge fund and fund manager equity positioning, credit market conditions, and market breadth.

This metric is now at its 3rd-highest level in 24 years, indicating an extremely positive market sentiment.

This comes as 5 out of 6 indicator components show bullish and very bullish readings, with only global stock market breadth at neutral.

The most recent increase in the gauge has been driven by fund manager cash allocation, which has fallen -0.5 percentage points month-over-month, to 3.6%, near the lowest in 13 years.

Investor appetite for stocks has rarely ever been stronger.

[Ben Kizemchuk @BenKizemchuk]

June's year-over-year margin growth eased modestly.
Meanwhile the 15month rate of change is nearing generational highs.
We are now approaching a setup that has historically been associated with the onset of multi-year bear markets.

[Onchain Insights @OnchainIns5699]

The KOSPI 200 Volatility Index has spiked to near-record highs recently, approaching or matching the extreme levels seen during the Global Financial Crisis, signaling intense market stress in South Korean equities. Elevated volatility of this magnitude typically reflects heightened uncertainty, forced liquidations, or sharp repricing of risk assets.

$BTC #BTC #MACRO #SPX

[Rohan Paul @rohanpaul_ai]

Aravind Srinivas on why China’s open-source AI may become more powerful than ever.

And why Anthropic has lobbied very hard for export control.

"the only reason why there is even a 12-month gap between open source and frontier models is export controls.

But there is a chance that, because of that, they now get really good at the physical layer.

One advantage they (China) have is that they can actually build data centers a lot faster. Power is not a problem. Permits are not a problem. People are not a problem. Labor is not a problem. Expertise is not a problem.

And so, by forcing them to go out there and build all this, you are converting them into a far more potent competitor."

---

From "20VC with Harry Stebbings" YouTube channel (
@HarryStebbings ), link in comment

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

'I See Dead People': Treasury Blocks $99 Million In Federal Payments To Deceased Americans https://t.co/aGzrE3vOdl

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY HEGSETH TELLS SENATE PANEL THE PENTAGON URGENTLY NEEDS A $67 BILLION SUPPLEMENTAL FUNDING PACKAGE.

• REQUESTS $1.5 BILLION TO ADDRESS MISSION-CRITICAL FUEL SHORTFALLS.

• REQUESTS $2 BILLION TO REPLACE EQUIPMENT LOST OR DAMAGED IN COMBAT.