Viv

[Viv @vivpah]

@kashyap286 @Abbylester how are you so certain in making this claim?

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

Today's Key Events (All EST) — 08/04/2026

08:30: US Trade Balance
10:00: US Factory Orders MoM
10:00: US JOLTS Job Openings

Before Open 👇
06:00: Spotify $SPOT
06:00: DuPont $DD
06:00: Archer-Daniels-Midland $ADM
06:00: Leidos $LDOS
06:00: Gartner $IT
06:00: Waters $WAT
06:30: Caterpillar $CAT
06:30: Merck $MRK
06:30: Kimberly-Clark $KMB
06:30: Zebra Technologies $ZBRA
06:30: IDEXX Laboratories $IDXX
06:45: Pfizer $PFE
06:45: Marathon Petroleum $MPC
06:45: Aptiv $APTV
06:45: BioNTech $BNTX
06:45: MPLX $MPLX
07:00: McDonald's $MCD
07:00: Wayfair $W
07:00: DigitalOcean $DOCN
07:00: Duke Energy $DUK
07:00: NRG Energy $NRG
07:00: Rockwell Automation $ROK
07:00: TPG
07:00: Strata Critical Medical $SRTA
07:30: Energy Transfer $ET
08:00: W.W. Grainger $GWW

After Hours 👇
16:00: Booking Holdings $BKNG
16:00: Amgen $AMGN
16:00: Wynn Resorts $WYNN
16:00: Gilead Sciences $GILD
16:00: Lumen Technologies $LUMN
16:05: Arista Networks $ANET
16:05: Astera Labs $ALAB
16:05: Opendoor $OPEN
16:05: Toast $TOST
16:05: Upstart $UPST
16:05: Pinterest $PINS
16:05: Devon Energy $DVN
16:05: Lucid $LCID
16:05: Coupang $CPNG
16:05: Workiva $WK
16:10: Match Group $MTCH
16:15: AMD $AMD
16:15: Lattice Semiconductor $LSCC
16:15: Mosaic $MOS
16:15: Bio-Rad $BIO
16:20: Prudential Financial $PRU
16:30: GXO Logistics $GXO
18:00: Suncor Energy $SU
19:00: SpaceX $SPCX
19:00: Light & Wonder $LNWO

Follow @wallstengine for detailed earnings highlights from many of these companies throughout the day

[Viv @vivpah]

@ariaradnia A few strategies could help during off-peak hours: shift supply toward delivery, expand into B2B (e.g., healthcare) transport, use off-peak discounting to capture demand from personal vehicle users. That said, I agree—hard to see easy answers solving this demand variability.

[Viv @vivpah]

@bobspaysubstack Agreed, used cash hoard as weapon or risk moats getting shaken. Flooded market with free tiers, cheap tokens, and credits, in pursuit of dominance and potential TAM which may take longer to get created. Gobs of private/VC money didn't help so it was critical to defend.

[Viv @vivpah]

@Sunrisecap168 @ReneSellmann Here are many catalysts 1)Deceleration in worsening of US same store sales 2)Less promotional and more full price sales 3) China growth holds on longer 4) New product launch improvements 5) better acceptance of the new CEO 6) No more PR/social media drama

[Viv @vivpah]

@ReneSellmann Priced in - Eroding premium pricing with competition intensifying; Category saturation and continued US demand weakening; Op deleverage of 700 basis points (400 from tariffs); Leadership gap; Flaky China growth given macro; Failures at product newness. Which one neutralizes?

[Viv @vivpah]

@HyppInvestor @invest091 Reasonable! NFLX is among my top 5 positions. I have held NFLX since 2019 and added when the market sours. Great stories with continued upside are hard to accept without skepticism so its understandable that the market flips to a half glass empty view every few years.

[Viv @vivpah]

@HyppInvestor @invest091 You couldn't carry on the debate so now you have switched to asking about how much money...classic

[Viv @vivpah]

@Sunrisecap168 @ReneSellmann Not accurate. 45-50% US, 12-15 pct Canada which is holding steady, 15-20 pct china growing decently and 15% rest of the world and slowly the mix will continue to shift towards outside US (similar trajectory as Nike)

[Viv @vivpah]

@HyppInvestor @invest091 LATAM, Netflix is dominant compared to other global premium streaming services because of early mover adv (started Brazil in 2011) and business has still a lot of runway. Revenue accelerated from 9% growth in Q2 2025 to 21 pct in Q2 2026 in local currency.

[Viv @vivpah]

@HyppInvestor @invest091 Japan has more room (anime, local sports/events growing) as penetration is low 10s pct. India and South East Asia has ton of volume to take sure ARPUs are going to be low. However mobile plan penetration with ad support revenue can go a long way.

[Viv @vivpah]

@HyppInvestor @invest091 Sure, its silly to bring China into the discussion.

[Viv @vivpah]

@FrancoOlivera This is much less an 80/20 business as one would expect but more and more exposing long tail of niches. I would imagine that as the library gets more varied (across language, genre and modalities), the concentration reduces even further.

[Viv @vivpah]

@StockMarketNerd @LivyResearch The business hasnt shifted as much as sentiments have. 2023-26 the revenue growth from 34 to 52 B came on backs of password sharing and pricing segmentation. The next leg is advertising which is still to fully kick in. Its squarely an investor expectations and valuations issue

[Viv @vivpah]

@StockMarketNerd @LivyResearch engagement has been flat (average 2 pct growth) since they started disclosing in 2023. Total hours viewed 186 B then and is estimated 196 B in 2026. The question is why is the sentiment so negative now?

[Rihard Jarc @RihardJarc]

Interview with a $GOOGL employee explaining that the value when it comes to ASIC design from companies like $AVGO, Mediatek, and $MRVL is in their $TSM allocation, not the co-design anymore:

1. When it comes to co-design of chips, he thinks the real value of companies like $AVGO, Mediatek, and $MRVL lies in their $TSM allocation and memory allocation, which they got sooner than everyone else. In the whole process, he sees platform verification and then manufacturing as key.

2. If you could flip a switch and completely reset the $TSM allocation, he thinks the hyperscalers would move 100% to internal co-design and skip the co-designers for that part. There is still value in $AVGO's IP for memory, or in $MRVL's interconnects, but for co-design specifically, he thinks it comes down to $TSM and the memory supply chain allocation.

3. In the future, he thinks hyperscalers will move to direct $TSM relationships.

4. When it comes to $AMZN's Trainium, he thinks the split of IP rev share between co-designer and $AMZN is around 60% $AMZN and 40% co-designer right now. For the OpenAI ASIC, he thinks the split going to the co-designer is much higher, since OpenAI doesn't have an EDA department.

5. The expert doesn't think hyperscalers can bring every part of the accelerator build in-house, things like switching, interconnects, DSPs, etc. But the specific chip design angle he thinks has reached its peak in value.

6. When it comes to interconnects, he thinks demand will continue to grow for both copper and optics, as copper is still and will continue to be cost-effective for smaller distances, while optics will be essentially for longer distances. If copper is 100% today, he thinks it will be 70% copper, 30% optics in the next 2-3 years. That said, it doesn't mean you are reducing copper usage as the whole pie grows.

found on @AlphaSenseInc

[Viv @vivpah]

@invest091 Need to subtract booking value of airline tickets, rentals, etc. from the Gross booking numerator to truly do a pure room night ADR. Otherwise the chart is also capturing mix shifts from faster growth in airline ticket booking.