Peter Voigt

Ph.D, Tweeting about science (in particular covid science in recent years), national and international politics, the war on Ukraine, and much more.

[Louis Duclos @ObsDelphi]

🇬🇧🇺🇸Analyse de la situation à Fairford.

Cette tentative d'attaque contre une base aérienne britannique est un signal important.

Cela signifie que nous faisons face à un ennemi qui est prêt à prendre des risques considérables. Ces hommes qui ont participé à cette attaque auraient pu être tués en essayant de rentrer sur la base, il faut imaginer qu'ils étaient prêts à aller jusqu'au bout.

Oser s'attaquer à une base de l'OTAN en territoire britannique, au cœur de l'Europe, c'est prendre un risque énorme pour un État. Comme dit précédemment, il s'agit d'un acte de guerre et cela pourrait précipiter un conflit avec des conséquences importantes.

Ce qui s'est passé à Fairford doit nous faire prendre conscience du climat dans lequel vit l'Europe actuellement. Quelques semaines après l'attentat manqué sur l'aéroport de Leipzig, c'est désormais des explosifs près d'une base aérienne sensible qui sont retrouvés, avec des individus interpellés.

Nous entrons dans une nouvelle ère où des pays ennemis, des États, travaillent activement à nous causer des dégâts, de manière directe ou indirecte. L'OTAN garde une posture de désescalade en voulant ne pas répondre, et pourtant l'escalade est causée par ces ennemis qui savent ce qu'ils font et qui augmentent la pression chaque mois.

Londres identifie la piste iranienne pour cette attaque manquée car les bombardiers stratégiques états-uniens décollant de Fairford participent aux bombardements sur l'Iran. La piste russe est également envisagée, et c'est probablement la plus sensible si elle venait à se concrétiser.

Au Royaume-Uni, en France, et partout en Europe, nous avons à présent la confirmation que des attaques sur des sites militaires sensibles peuvent subvenir à tout moment. Qu'est-ce qui différencie cette situation d'un état de guerre officiel ?

Seulement le regard que l'on porte dessus, car la réalité est désormais presque la même.

[Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum]

The head of Egyptian intelligence warned Israelis of an impending Hamas attack before October 7. Read @vmsalama
https://t.co/6BQfsHfgfj

[Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 @IAPonomarenko]

All this demagoguery about “Russia is not my enemy” will end very quickly when Russia turns your home into a pile of rubble, turns the places you love into graveyards, and Putin, with his idiotic smirk and chuckling, starts rambling about what an incredible threat your “fake country” posed and how he was “forced” to wage a war of annihilation against you to “correct the mistakes of history” inside his head.

They won’t ask whether you considered Russia an enemy or not. They won’t ask whether you wanted the war or not. They will call you a “Nazi” and commit the most insane war crimes with a profound sense of moral superiority and enjoyment.

[Shikhar @xikhar]

Third iteration with Opus 5.5 medium.

I am in awe. It turned blender, image-gen, and three.js into this beauty, which runs on your browser.

An understatement to say that Anthropic cooked. You are looking at the future of game dev.

[Darth Putin @DarthPutinKGB]

OTD in 1938 Hitler gave a speech demanding the Sudetenland be handed to Germany. He said his countrymen were being mistreated and needed protection. Also promised it was his last territorial demand. He was lying.

Imagine that happening today.

[Degrassi Knowles @RealDegrassiK]

MUSK (2026)
Directed by Alex Gibney
#documentary #movie #trailer

[Joseph Allen @j_g_allen]

“…a simple measles infection that might look simple on the surface can actually be deleting up to 70% of somebody's entire immunological memory pool, making them at very high risk for other infectious diseases for years.” -@michaelmina_lab

https://t.co/tF760qmFeO

[Joel The Dane 🇩🇰🇺🇦 Данський Козак #NAFO @JoelTheDane]

DANISH SATIRE 🇩🇰 explains how we scammed trump on #Greenland in 1 minute 😂🇺🇸🤡

🇬🇱🇬🇱🇬🇱🇬🇱🇬🇱🇬🇱🇬🇱🇬🇱🇬🇱

[WarTranslated @wartranslated]

Putin claims Russia allegedly has no plans to fight Europe, Baltics included, but says Russian speakers’ rights are violated in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Moscow knows how to respond under "international law". But he seems to forget he said the same about Ukraine before the aggression.

[Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum]

Amazing detail in this @wsj article about Kimberly Guilfoyle, US ambassador to Greece: she told a Greek minister, in a conversation about the collapse of the Romanian government,“We can do that to any country we want. We can do that here."
https://t.co/2HFqNlhEDw

[Velina Tchakarova @vtchakarova]

Best thing I watched on X today

[Cartes du Monde @CartesDuMonde]

Russie 🇷🇺

"Il faut attaquer et capturer Narva, en Estonie". Voici les propos que l'on peut entendre sur les chaînes de télé en Russie. Mais, pour certains, Moscou n'est toujours pas une menace pour la sécurité Européenne...

[Morgan @morganlinton]

Okay, my Opus 5.5 benchmark with @VulcanBench Frontier v4 is in, took four days to benchmark this one, but was worth it.

Super interesting results. Opus 5.5 actually performed better at both Medium and High than at Extra High and Max.

And holy moly does the cost increase at Max, but you're not getting more accuracy.

While Fable 5.1 comes in as the most accurate, it's only at Max, but surprisingly, at a lower cost than at Extra High, which ties with Opus 5.5.

Also, important to remember, this is my Frontier v4 benchmark, these are super hard tasks designed to stump frontier models, not representative of what you'd actually give to these models on a normal day.

So my takeaway is, Opus 5.5 Medium is the way to go for a very strong balance of high accuracy and solid cost efficiency.

I see no reason to use Fable 5.1 ever, and Astra, while a solid model, just isn't on the same level at Opus 5.5.

So I think I can now confidently say, with data to back it up, that at this moment in time, Anthropic has officially taken the lead.

Will be adding all the details of this benchmark for anyone who wants to do a deep dive into the data to the VulcanBench site soon, stay-tuned 🖖

[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

MORE: The Kremlin intends to accustom NATO militaries and governments to a baseline level of Russian activity and airspace violations in an effort to create tactical surprise if or when the Kremlin conducts further escalations — such as direct drone strikes on NATO targets.

The clearest historical comparison is Egypt’s actions in the lead-up to the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when it conducted regular military exercises near the Israeli border that initially prompted Israeli reactions but were gradually treated as routine –with the result that the Israeli military partially dismissed Egypt’s actual deployments to invade as just another exercise.

The Russian military is not conducting a rapid military buildup on NATO’s borders, to be clear, and this is an inexact analogy — but NATO must ensure that it does not relax into treating Russian drone incursions and aggressive flight paths by Russian military aircraft as routine and unimportant occurrences, either in terms of raising the threshold of what Russian action merits a NATO response (a fight the Kremlin has unfortunately already partially won) or in terms of reducing the urgency with which NATO states and populations respond to individual Russian actions.

[SPRAVDI — Stratcom Centre @StratcomCentre]

The Russian dictator now saying all the things about the Baltics that they said before the invasion of Ukraine.

Once again, the "oppression of Russian speakers" remains the core of the propaganda narrative, and despite committing acts of terror and sabotage all over the EU, the Russians "are not planning military action", as they weren't in 2022.

[MagellanQuest 🇪🇺/acc @MagellanQuest]

Copenhagen built a new light rail expecting around 12,000 passengers a day.

One month after the full line opened:

24,000 are using it.

Every weekday.

The 28-km line doesn't go into central Copenhagen.

Instead, it connects suburbs, hospitals, universities, workplaces and six S-train stations across eight municipalities.

Build the connection, and sometimes you discover that the movement was already there.

[ℏεsam @Hesamation]

I asked Opus 5.5 to compose an emotional violin score and animation.

never been this shocked by a model’s taste. absolutely phenomenal.

[WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 @WarMonitor3]

After a discussion yesterday it appeared to me that the recent escalation of action toward Europe from Russia is almost inevitably tied to recent strikes on a Russian command post in Donetsk using British and French weaponry which killed a significant amount of generals.

[WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 @WarMonitor3]

British Royal airforce today conducted close reconnaissance of Russias enclave Kaliningrad as well as Lithuanias border with Belarus and the Crimea using RC-135W Rivet Joints.

They are looking for something quite intently around Kaliningrad...

[Peter Voigt @voigt_peter]

@synthwavedd Me neither. It is still super fast and I have, for once, plenty of tokens