Some considerations that many folks seem not to get:
1. It can be a bubble even if the tech works. (For instance, if the tech doesn't have a high-demand use case.)
2. It can be a bubble even if the tech works and has strong product-market fit. (For instance, if the tech cannot be economically viable.)
3. It can be a bubble even if the tech works, has strong product-market fit, and has a path to eventual economic viability. (For instance, if profitability takes too long to achieve or makes margin/competition assumptions that fail to materialize.)
4. It can be a bubble even if the tech works, has strong product-market fit, and is currently highly profitable. (For instance, if demand has a hard ceiling and growth stops once the ceiling is reached.)
5. It can be a bubble even if the tech works, has strong product-market fit, is currently highly profitable, and has unlimited future demand.
Literally all it takes for something to be a bubble is for lots of people to over-enthusiastically bet their money on it, and subsequently get panicky.
Importantly, bubbles can be attached both to things that are completely hogwash, like the Metaverse, and to world-changing developments like the Internet or railways. Bubbles don't care. They're brought into existence by the thoughts and feelings of investors, not by actual tech or products.
"The bubble has burst" doesn't mean "the tech didn't work" or "people stopped using the tech." It only means that people got panicky, investor money dried up, and valuations collapsed. Internet adoption didn't stop in 2000.
Two economists just published a mathematical proof that AI will destroy the economy.
Not might. Not could. Will — if nothing changes.
The paper is called "The AI Layoff Trap." Published March 2, 2026. Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Boston University. Peer reviewed. Mathematically modeled.
The conclusion is one sentence.
"At the limit, firms automate their way to boundless productivity and zero demand."
An economy that produces everything. And sells it to nobody.
Here is how you get there.
A company fires 500 workers and replaces them with AI. A competitor fires 700 to keep up. Another fires 1,000. Every company is behaving rationally. Every company is following the incentives correctly. And every company is building a trap for itself.
Because the workers who were fired were also customers.
When they lose their jobs faster than the economy can absorb them, they stop spending. Consumer demand falls. Companies respond by cutting costs — which means automating more workers — which means less spending — which means more falling demand — which means more automation.
The loop has no natural exit.
The researchers tested every proposed solution. Universal basic income. Capital income taxes. Worker equity participation. Upskilling programs. Corporate coordination agreements.
Every single one failed in the model.
The only intervention that worked: a Pigouvian automation tax — a per-task levy charged every time a company replaces a human with AI, forcing them to price in the demand they are destroying before they pull the trigger.
No government has implemented this. No major economy is seriously discussing it.
Meanwhile the numbers are already tracking the curve. 100,000 tech workers laid off in 2025. 92,000 more in the first months of 2026. Jack Dorsey fired half of Block's workforce and said publicly: "Within the next year, the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion."
Nobody is doing anything wrong. Companies are following their incentives perfectly. That is exactly the problem.
Rational behavior. At scale. Simultaneously. With no mechanism to stop it.
Two economists built the math. The math leads to one place.
Source: Falk & Tsoukalas · Wharton School + Boston University ·
https://t.co/4m8E9jQNYm
For our 2026 group retreat, the entire team gathered at Bildungshaus Kloster Schöntal. Set in the beautiful monastery surroundings, the retreat gave us dedicated time to discuss orga, exchange ideas on science, and deepen our understanding of our wide range of research areas.
What a great day for Vladimir Putin! I can picture him in the Kremlin, watching the EU & the UK play dumb while Trump trashes Int. Law, their media reporting Maduro's abduction as an 'arrest'. I bet he's thinking: Should I also detain Zelensky and subject him to Russian justice?
Maduro's not a good guy, agreed. But neither is Putin, and Trump rolled out the red fucking carpet for him. It's not about dope, it's about oil (which kinda IS dope).
Just when you think Trump has hit the gutter, he bounces lower.
You lecture the world on Russia’s unprovoked invasion, then sit absolute silent while your biggest ally invades Venezuela and kidnaps its President......
😂😂😂😂😂
I was briefed this morning on the U.S. military capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, as well as their planned imprisonment in federal custody here in New York City.
Unilaterally attacking a sovereign nation is an act of war and a violation of federal and international law.
This blatant pursuit of regime change doesn’t just affect those abroad, it directly impacts New Yorkers, including tens of thousands of Venezuelans who call this city home. My focus is their safety and the safety of every New Yorker, and my administration will continue to monitor the situation and issue relevant guidance.