Clayton P. Cobb

Random guy of no significance. Love to golf. Attempting to homeschool. Not proficient at either. #RollTide

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

Virtue or Vice

This is a story about me, my golfing buddy, and our CoV2 debates. I’ll call him Mitch.

Mitch is highly-educated, does not trust media, claims to be a political Independent, is inquisitive, and has a lawyer’s mind (cross-examine, logical, fact-based).

/1

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

@Clevta I watched all those games and unless Bama’s defensive execution somehow matches the TTU performance, it’s reasonable to assume UM will suffocate Bama like Arizona and Florida did.

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

@EvanMiya 93% seems a bit much, but I have watched Bama all year and have no reason to believe Bama will be competitive OTHER than the performance against TTU, and I don’t mean the offense.

What is Bama’s defensive efficiency when Holloway is not on the floor?

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

@WolverineChron This is the likely outcome. When teams have forced Bama to score from 2, it has gone poorly. Lots of missed contested layups and short-range floaters. Bama would prefer a rhythm 3 over a contested layup. Bama has no strong finishers at the rim and only has one real inside player.

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

@ianmSC Ian! 640k views, my lord!! 🤣

Roll Tide. We can discuss rationally elsewhere. =D

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

15 years ago today. What a time that was.

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

@KelleyKga Cuomo threatened to withhold state funds if they did not comply.

From that point forward, our Superintendent and BOE would always use that excuse for why they would not defy the order.

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

@KelleyKga Voluntary, huh.

This was the school district adjacent to us.

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

@simon_faire @_TheAncientOne_ @JPWeiland @maolesen That’s wastewater. The COVID metrics did not change.

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

I'd like to ask @JPWeiland @_TheAncientOne_ @maolesen when they think the US CoV2 hospital admissions will peak nationally and at what level.

Let's use NY (normal WW) and NH (anomalous WW) as guideposts.

My guess:
- Week-ending 1/6: WW, ED%, Admissions,
- 1/13: Hosp/ICU Census.

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

@simon_faire @_TheAncientOne_ @JPWeiland @maolesen The wastewater has just noise.

Schools and Uni may throw off the WW readings die to the changing baseline, but there’s no change in the downslope for NY and MA.

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

@karen95957388 @maolesen There’s no secondary uptick in the US. Wastewater is erratic and unreliable, especially in real-time.

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

@DailyJLee Were those flu protocols? WHO said never to do these things for flu.

In the same document, masks were conditionally recommended despite no evidence of effectiveness.

Just hope based on mechanistic reasoning plausibility.

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

@LazarusLong13 @Hold2LLC Sources are given on the chart. Links to CDC and HHS Protect.

Is something additional required to achieve transparency?

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

@kylamb8 I'd count him as a #1 if it's even possible to compare.

He's up there with Julio.

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

@kylamb8 Good luck to Seth. He was so good for us until the snap woes this year. Without that issue, he's an awesome C, and I hope he thrives.

Judkins is also a badass. We have a loaded RB room, but Judkins is another legit day-one top-tier starter ready to bang it in the B10.

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

@kylamb8 I'm sick to my stomach on Downs. Much respect for OSU as a Blue Blood, but I don't understand why.

Forget the fact he was a 5* - he's basically already a 1st-Team AA college stud. Complete alpha plug-and-play.

Of all the players we're losing, Downs is the one that bothers me.

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

@_TheAncientOne_ Yes it’s weekly. Auto-smooth.

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

Now, we have the CDC NWSS update.

- 12/30/23 Wastewater peak: 19% higher
- 1/6/24 Hosp Admissions peak: 28% lower

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

Here's the CDC NWSS chart in two zooms.

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

@_TheAncientOne_ @maolesen @FarWanderer_ Yeah, if anything, we just don’t have enough data yet to see it, and those data are weekly data points anyway.

As with everything else so far, minerals expectation is the US won’t break historical trends nor those of other countries past-peak.

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

I think we can call it official now that the CDC Data Tracker has added the first week of decline (week-ending 1/13).

We already knew 1/6 was peak, but the Tracker didn't show the downside of the peak yet.

My predicted date was right, but I overshot Admissions peak by ~10%.

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

Update with predictions and latest data.

- Me: Peak 1/6: ~40k weekly admissions (lowest ever)
- Ancient: 1/27-2/3 ~116k weekly admissions (2nd highest)
- Olesen: 1/27-2/3 ~140k weekly admissions (highest ever)

Peaks appearing in NY/MD plus national ED%.

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

@_TheAncientOne_ @maolesen @FarWanderer_ US WW here for reference. Should have another week of CDC later today.

[Clayton P. Cobb @warrtalon]

@_TheAncientOne_ @maolesen @FarWanderer_ TAO, which part would you say is not declining as quickly?

US doesn’t have much to show yet, but Netherlands and Singapore fell as quickly as they rose.