E. H.

#TigrayGenocide

[E. H. @wdc_cincy]

In Nov. 2020, Tibor Nagy supported the war on #Tigray & provided diplomatic backing to the Abiy regime, hoping it would prevail. This time around, he wants the war stopped—not out of concern for civilians, but to prevent the regime from collapsing. After all, #Abiy is their SOB.

[Tibor Nagy @TiborPNagyJr]

If this doesn’t stop immediately step by step escalation will result in untold horrors and destruction. What sane leader in Ethiopia or Tigray want that? The people certainly don’t! Stop now!
https://t.co/dkuNCq6PBb

[E. H. @wdc_cincy]

.@Fetsum1 gave a great response to this post:

“They’ve agreed on lunch—which is the Prosperity Party (PP). That should be enough, shouldn’t it?”

Mr .@awolallo , THAT is the vision!

[Awol Allo @awolallo]

Groups with radically contrasting views of Ethiopian history, with totally irreconcilable visions of the future, forming an alliance to unseat the incumbent is farcical. There maybe mutual grievances but there is absolutely no shared vision. Again, they couldn’t agree on lunch!

[E. H. @wdc_cincy]

@Titys21 1) Defections are real, though insignificant, and were never dismissed as propaganda. In fact, Tigray announced support to encourage those who defected to return. 2) Abiy lacks battle-hardened soldiers & experienced military leaders, which is why he is counting on defections.

[E. H. @wdc_cincy]

This is pro-Abiy regime propaganda. The key difference between 2020 and this war is that #Tigray now has a much stronger military and strong alliances with other forces, while the Abiy Ahmed regime is in its weakest position ever. This is the truth Jawar is tasked with hiding.

[Jawar Mohammed @Jawar_Mohammed]

Some of the people who once helped lead Tigray’s war effort are now giving Abiy a significant advantage against the TPLF. The defection of military commanders and intelligence officers to the federal government is one of the clearest differences between the renewed confrontation and the 2020–2022 war.
During the previous war, much of the Tigrayan military and intelligence leadership rallied behind the TPLF, effectively denying the federal government reliable access to information from inside those networks. Abiy was, in many respects, fighting blind. This time, he has access to seasoned Tigrayan military and intelligence figures who possess intimate knowledge of the TPLF’s structures, personnel, networks, and operational methods. Their expertise and connections are providing the federal government with valuable insider intelligence that it simply did not have during the previous war.
The impact of these defections goes well beyond the information individual officers bring with them. Every senior defection undermines trust within the organization. Commanders must increasingly question the loyalty of colleagues, subordinates, and even those entrusted with sensitive operational information. The result is a double advantage for Abiy: greater access to insider intelligence on one side and growing suspicion and weakened cohesion within the TPLF on the other.
The reported destruction of a major ammunition convoy near Shire few months back, the loss of TPLF-held positions in Shererina, and the reported surrender of hundreds of Tigrayan fighters last week are consistent with this changing intelligence environment. They cannot be explained by battlefield pressure alone. Improved intelligence access, insider networks, surveillance capabilities, and weakening internal cohesion are all likely contributing factors.
The fundamental difference between the two wars is therefore becoming increasingly clear: in 2020–2022, the TPLF largely controlled the information environment inside Tigray. Today, the federal government has people inside that environment who understand its military structures, know its personnel, and can provide Abiy with information from within. That is a strategic advantage the federal government did not possess during the previous war.

[E. H. @wdc_cincy]

@Jawar_Mohammed The same statement released by the “Alliance for Survival” says that the Abiy Ahmed regime declared war on their forces, triggering the large-scale conflict. This is the most important point that Jawar, who is doing propaganda for Abiy, is trying—unsuccessfully—to conceal.

[E. H. @wdc_cincy]

The same statement released by the “Alliance for Survival” says that the Abiy Ahmed regime declared war on their forces, triggering the large-scale conflict. This is the most important point that Jawar, who is doing propaganda for Abiy, is trying—unsuccessfully—to conceal.

[Jawar Mohammed @Jawar_Mohammed]

A press release issued in the name of the Survival Alliance claims that members of the alliance have begun attacking government forces “on all fronts.”

While there have been reports of fighting in North Wollo and along the Afar border areas of Tigray, there have been no reports of new military activity in the rest of Amhara or Oromia so far.

[E. H. @wdc_cincy]

@Jawar_Mohammed This is pro-Abiy regime propaganda. The key difference between 2020 and this war is that #Tigray now has a much stronger military and strong alliances with other forces, while the Abiy Ahmed regime is in its weakest position ever. This is the truth Jawar is tasked with hiding.

[E. H. @wdc_cincy]

@reda_getachew Who thought Getachew Reda would one day switch positions and repeat the same lies told by the Abiy Ahmed regime? The regime had long declared war, yet Tigray chose not to respond. Today, it launched full-fledged attacks on Tigray, forcing #Tigray into “defensive combat.”

[E. H. @wdc_cincy]

Who thought Getachew Reda would one day switch positions and repeat the same lies told by the Abiy Ahmed regime? The regime had long declared war, yet Tigray chose not to respond. Today, it launched full-fledged attacks on Tigray, forcing #Tigray into “defensive combat.”

[Getachew K Reda @reda_getachew]

It is rather heartbreaking to learn that despite efforts by many including the international community to avoid yet another round of war in Tigray, the TPLF leadership early in the morning today launched an all out offensive against government positions in Afar and Amhara. It has taken over federal controlled airports in Tigray leading to the suspension of flights to and from Tigray. The TPLF politico- military leadership has obviously taken irresponsibility to new heights.

[René Lefort @rene_renelefort]

The first in-deepth article about the background of Shererina battle, its rolling-out and its consequences. Is that reliable? Future will tell…

[E. H. @wdc_cincy]

1) This video does not establish who these trucks belonged to or who attacked them. 2) The audio appears to capture TDF Army 70 fighters pursuing Abiy Ahmed’s forces to God knows where. 3) The attached excerpt from the Horn Review provides a summary of what happened at Shererina.

[Inside Africa @afric_insde]

#BREAKING: Ethiopian National Defense Forces reportedly deployed unmanned aerial vehicles and combat drones to strike convoys belonging to the TPLF’s Army 70 after the unit attacked government positions near Shererina. The aerial operation also targeted trucks transporting ammunition, reportedly inflicting heavy damage on the extremist forces.

[E. H. @wdc_cincy]

@afric_insde 1) This video does not establish who these trucks belonged to or who attacked them. 2) The audio appears to capture TDF Army 70 fighters pursuing Abiy Ahmed’s forces to God knows where. 3) The attached excerpt from the Horn Review provides a summary of what happened at Shererina.

[E. H. @wdc_cincy]

The only path to peace is the full implementation of CoHA, which your gov’t has deliberately dragged its feet on—most importantly, the unconditional return of Western Tigray to Tigray. You cannot rewrite z truth simply because you chose to switch sides &play for a different club.

[Getachew K Reda @reda_getachew]

The only path that can save us is to use whatever capacity and opportunities remain to resolve peacefully the existential question confronting our people. We must first survive as a people. That the TPLF leadership has thrown its lot with the very regime in Asmara that publicly vowed to erase Tigray from the face of the earth is quite simply a prescription for disaster.

While President Isaias is clever in recruiting the useful idiots in Mekelle to turn Tigray into a buffer zone against a threat from the federal government more perceived than real, the fact that he is trying to achieve this at the expense of the mothers and children of Tigray and Amhara gives away the evil principle at work in this marriage of strange bedfellows.

Given all this, I would also like to take this opportunity to call on the federal government to remain committed to the full implementation of the Pretoria agreement, to continue to exercise restraint in the face of repeated provocations and to keep open all possible paths to peace.

We would also like to urge the international community to take immediate action:

• Deploy satellite and ground-level monitoring to verify cross-border activities.
• Hold military and political actors accountable for actions that provoke conflict.
• Prioritize civilian protection and demand full military transparency from all forces in the region.

Silence in the face of preparations for war is complicity.

#Ethiopia #UNSC #AfricanUnion #GlobalAwareness #PreventConflict #PeaceFirst

[E. H. @wdc_cincy]

The only path to peace is the full implementation of CoHA, which your gov’t has deliberately dragged its feet on—most importantly, the unconditional return of Western Tigray to Tigray. You cannot rewrite z truth simply because you chose to switch sides &play for a different club.

[Getachew K Reda @reda_getachew]

After months of denying entering into an alliance with internal and external forces with an axe to grind against the Ethiopian federal government, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) leadership has now reached the point of publicly declaring that it has crossed the Rubicon, as it were. According to it, there is no peaceful resolution to the impasse with the federal government, and it has decided to resort to force. The goal is not to liberate Western Tigray as many of us have always assumed the objective to be-preferably and more legitimately peacefully-but, as the head of the TPLF secretariat put it, because "the security of the people of Tigray can only be assured on the grave of the Prosperity Party led regime." It is abhorrent that any politician, entrusted with the welfare of their own constituency would frame their security as contingent on the demise of a domestically elected government. Needless to say, this is not the language of a leader seeking to protect their people, but of one prepared to sacrifice them for a cause dressed up as their salvation.

In light of the TPLF leadership's well-documented tradition of sloganeering, I'd not have cared one bit if Debretsion and his ilk had just been repeating an old mantra. But unfortunately, there obviously is an evil principle at work here. The very leadership that has presided over Tigray's continued descent into the seemingly bottomless pit of tragedy is now flaunting in public its rather ungodly alliance with the very forces vehemently opposed to the Pretoria Agreement. The alliance, we are told, is ostensibly meant to achieve, by force, not the rather modest objective of the fullest implementation of Pretoria, such as the restoration of Tigray's constitutionally mandated territory, but more pointedly, the removal of the government in Addis Ababa.

Indeed, the TPLF leadership has now publicly articulated, as the mainstay of its repertoire for addressing differences with the federal government, what it had long denied: that it has been working with the regime in Asmara and other forces opposed to Addis Ababa. Whatever the characterization here, it is now an open secret that the goal posts have shifted and the ultimate goal is the overthrow of the federal government, consequences be damned. I don't lose sleep over whether such a goal is achievable. It is not; but the ramifications of such a futile effort for peace in the region in general and for the very existence of the people of Tigray in particular cannot be overstated. The dramatis personae in this so-called alliance makes it abundantly clear that, if allowed their way, they would stop at nothing to wreak unmitigated havoc on the entire region.

Recent events bear this argument out. Peace cannot survive hidden military maneuvers. The skirmish in Shererina has made it clear how high the stakes are in this game of brinkmanship the regime in Asmara, its junior partners within Ethiopia, and its external handlers are orchestrating. The large cache of munitions and weapons captured is proof positive that far from addressing the plight of the people of Tigray, dismantling the Ethiopian state is the ultimate objective in this dangerous game. Covert transfers of heavy military equipment into Tigray or other parts of the country represent a clear and present danger to stability efforts across the Horn of Africa. Despite TPLF leaders' claims, the number of lives needlessly lost during that half a day engagement foreshadows the enormity of the disaster lurking ahead not just for the people of Tigray but for the people of Ethiopia at large.

What should matter to the members of the Tigray army is the survival and peace of the people of Tigray, not the survival of a handful of criminals who have always considered waging war their retirement plan. To the rank and file: tell those who are frittering your lives away that enough is enough.

[E. H. @wdc_cincy]

The TPLF’s cooperation with the Eritrean government is consistent with the 2018 peace agreement signed by the Ethiopian and Eritrean gov’t. Since the Ethiopian government has never officially revoked or nullified that agreement, what exactly is the issue you’re talking about?

[Getachew K Reda @reda_getachew]

After months of denying entering into an alliance with internal and external forces with an axe to grind against the Ethiopian federal government, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) leadership has now reached the point of publicly declaring that it has crossed the Rubicon, as it were. According to it, there is no peaceful resolution to the impasse with the federal government, and it has decided to resort to force. The goal is not to liberate Western Tigray as many of us have always assumed the objective to be-preferably and more legitimately peacefully-but, as the head of the TPLF secretariat put it, because "the security of the people of Tigray can only be assured on the grave of the Prosperity Party led regime." It is abhorrent that any politician, entrusted with the welfare of their own constituency would frame their security as contingent on the demise of a domestically elected government. Needless to say, this is not the language of a leader seeking to protect their people, but of one prepared to sacrifice them for a cause dressed up as their salvation.

In light of the TPLF leadership's well-documented tradition of sloganeering, I'd not have cared one bit if Debretsion and his ilk had just been repeating an old mantra. But unfortunately, there obviously is an evil principle at work here. The very leadership that has presided over Tigray's continued descent into the seemingly bottomless pit of tragedy is now flaunting in public its rather ungodly alliance with the very forces vehemently opposed to the Pretoria Agreement. The alliance, we are told, is ostensibly meant to achieve, by force, not the rather modest objective of the fullest implementation of Pretoria, such as the restoration of Tigray's constitutionally mandated territory, but more pointedly, the removal of the government in Addis Ababa.

Indeed, the TPLF leadership has now publicly articulated, as the mainstay of its repertoire for addressing differences with the federal government, what it had long denied: that it has been working with the regime in Asmara and other forces opposed to Addis Ababa. Whatever the characterization here, it is now an open secret that the goal posts have shifted and the ultimate goal is the overthrow of the federal government, consequences be damned. I don't lose sleep over whether such a goal is achievable. It is not; but the ramifications of such a futile effort for peace in the region in general and for the very existence of the people of Tigray in particular cannot be overstated. The dramatis personae in this so-called alliance makes it abundantly clear that, if allowed their way, they would stop at nothing to wreak unmitigated havoc on the entire region.

Recent events bear this argument out. Peace cannot survive hidden military maneuvers. The skirmish in Shererina has made it clear how high the stakes are in this game of brinkmanship the regime in Asmara, its junior partners within Ethiopia, and its external handlers are orchestrating. The large cache of munitions and weapons captured is proof positive that far from addressing the plight of the people of Tigray, dismantling the Ethiopian state is the ultimate objective in this dangerous game. Covert transfers of heavy military equipment into Tigray or other parts of the country represent a clear and present danger to stability efforts across the Horn of Africa. Despite TPLF leaders' claims, the number of lives needlessly lost during that half a day engagement foreshadows the enormity of the disaster lurking ahead not just for the people of Tigray but for the people of Ethiopia at large.

What should matter to the members of the Tigray army is the survival and peace of the people of Tigray, not the survival of a handful of criminals who have always considered waging war their retirement plan. To the rank and file: tell those who are frittering your lives away that enough is enough.

[E. H. @wdc_cincy]

@reda_getachew The TPLF’s cooperation with the Eritrean gov’t is consistent with the 2018 peace agreement signed by the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments. Since the Ethiopian government has never officially revoked or nullified that agreement, what exactly is the issue you’re talking about?

[E. H. @wdc_cincy]

@TeklehaymanotG @kajakallas Warmongers like .@kajakallas do not care how many civilians are massacred as long as it serves the interests of her tiny country, Estonia, and Europe. Look how determined she has been to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. Humanity is the last thing I expect from such scumbags.

[E. H. @wdc_cincy]

@tparsi The most important question is whether Trump is able to impose costs on Israel.

[Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz]

If these are indeed the core points, they only underscore a deeper problem: Washington still doesn’t understand Iran or where it is heading.

Trump now faces three choices: accept Iran’s terms, walk away from negotiations, or settle for an empty framework that allows him to declare the war over without resolving anything.

These are terms Iran would not have accepted before the war, and certainly not after it. A regime that feels it has withstood pressure and is far less likely to compromise.

With a growing sense of victory and an increasingly radicalized system dominated by the IRGC, the prospects for a meaningful agreement are minimal.

If anything, this approach all but guarantees failure. Iran does not seek an endless war but it will not settle for a post-war strategic reality that leaves it exposed.

From Tehran’s perspective, any acceptable outcome must include guarantees against future attacks, compensation for the war, no restrictions on its missile and nuclear programs, and continued control over the Hormuz strains.
Anything short of that is unlikely to be accepted.

No go.

#ira

[Fareed Zakaria @FareedZakaria]

“For the US – unfortunately – we don’t have good options. Only bad options.”

That’s what @citrinowicz, who served as head of the Iran branch of Israel’s military intelligence, told me as we discussed Donald Trump’s threats to step up US attacks on Iran. Part 1 of our conversation: