Dading

生死看淡

[Dading @web3_dading]

@sixsixjay 需求又该怎么定价？

[加密韋馱｜Skanda 🔶 @thecryptoskanda]

https://t.co/mSLiOsDati

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Given my recent popularity, might be a good time to put out a PSA.

Early followers have known this from the start:

1. I don't do any paid promotions, paid marketing, or accept outside gifts.

But I appreciate all the recent outreach from companies!

If you see or engage with something online related to any type of payment, it's fabricated for engagement or a scammer.

The reason I don't want to is because I'm just posting on X for fun, and when money is involved it turns into a job (which I don't want it to feel like).

Also, well off personally so I've never felt influenced by anyone outside.

2. The only "paid" thing I have is $1 subscriptions. That's all.

From the very start, I've never taken a single penny outside of X subscriptions/creator sharing. Which is why I say in my bio:

"I only use X, beware of imposters."

Anyone approaching you to share an external community or app is a scammer or imposter.

It's just very frustrating that people still fall for these impersonators.

3. I'm just one person posting my thoughts online.

-> Not some institution or Illuminati team.

Quality of research is "high" because I have a technical background. And I genuinely do this as a hobby researching supply chain ideas.

There's not some "hidden" motive like a paid research group from Asia, it's just fun lol.

4. I will always disclose positions if I have them or if I don't. Very open and transparent about it.

With Chinese equities I'm just posting research in hope it benefits people find conviction in critical companies in global supply chains.

I don't have any positions / any financial incentives (so I can be impartial), and haven't privately discussed with anyone about ideas I post beforehand.

Maybe it happens in Asia, but in the US it's highly illegal to be running groups or getting paid to post about companies.

I'm just posting my ideas for free without outside influence, in case others like the idea.

It probably seems odd, but I'm doing this as a hobby and for fulfillment of helping others.

5. I'm staying anonymous so I can just freely post my ideas online.

Reason being is after I first posted negative things about $IREN, I would have a lot of personal IRL threats and harassment from dozens of accounts for me to stop.

Don't want any personal safety or people around me to be at risk for just publishing free research online.

Anyway, goal is to help out retail investors with free information synthesis; rather than just selling that directly to institutions.

I'm sure this positive sum model might anger people along the way (who have expensive paywalls, or financial incentives) that might feel threatened by information democratization.

But genuinely just sharing day-to-day thoughts for free.

Very surprised by recent popularity but it helps me distribute compelling ideas to more people.

And grateful Elon / X gave me an opportunity through X.

[Dading @web3_dading]

@sixsixjay 可能不会再有传统意义的牛熊了。。进一步美股注意力，流动性规则会交叉融合。包括所谓1011，单纯从二级流动性角度，其实我觉得后面ai股很多也是币圈热钱导向过去。只是相对基本面更扎实，助燃了，称之为叙事新币圈都不为过

[Dading @web3_dading]

@sixsixjay 也没必要太悲观。我感触还有重要一个问题点是流动性规则变化，cex上面也是。哪怕mm勾兑，最后还得靠散户买盘才能分发。散户买盘时机点认知思维都发生了很大变化，和美股流动性挂钩很大

[Dading @web3_dading]

@sixsixjay 很多二级散户被折磨的已经不在意是啥了。。能涨就行了。亏的哪儿还有梦想啊，没了市梦率啥项目能起来估值。。这就是百科我这样老散会看下当时割我的镰刀，其实大部分后面新人也不在意的，太遥远了

[Dading @web3_dading]

@sixsixjay 而且你应该这样想，不管怎么样哪怕故事破碎，起码项目方你们收获了财富。。非常多散户参与者被折磨骗的倾家荡产。。失望程度也不是一个级别的

[Dading @web3_dading]

@sixsixjay 都一样。。你以为有多少散户真心喜欢meme吗？很早都烂的不能再烂了，不少是没办法才去选择meme。为什么meme现在也不行了？游戏规则清晰了，市场流动性买盘估值大部分都会定义了。已经失去了上限财富效应罢了

[Dading @web3_dading]

你对行业愤慨就是忽视了最大一个点，以前诈骗倾销后可以用所谓牛熊借口。但是没有道理，在大饼整体上行时候大量山寨完全不演。为什么23年底还没有绝对这样情况？那时候还有一批之前经历过牛市盛况的老韭还愿意再持有相信一次。。但是没有道理任何行业在整体上行阶段只要相信啥拿着必亏完吧
你可以看看btw，哪怕不知道是哪个mm或者是剧本。但是起码相对呈现的态度也不会遭至对立骂声一片，也勉强算是相对优解了

[Dading @web3_dading]

@sixsixjay Pump开始后包括以前老meme玩家也深恶痛绝，大部分老meme社区玩家站审美和叙事，社群分析pump也是一直亏。所以说你站在项目方视角和不参与二级买卖散户之间天然存在代沟。。cex山寨大规模倾销对市场流动性而言才是原罪
创业本身对我们来理解并不是特别难，老老实实让散户能赚到钱散户也会给它相对正反馈

[Dading @web3_dading]

开始bsc meme不是这样子，是早有的聪明钱绑定到人身上，资金天然信服的是人。只有这样能打开相对短时流动性买盘估值，和是个啥也没关系，或者会赚钱的对是个啥包括会看筹码做估值的也不在意。不过pump在之前时间段打开市值天花板的不也是人么，无论pnut ai16z trump都一样的
这种和以前老meme也不太算一回事，你对meme本身理解就偏了。任何能具备财富效应的也不是meme，随便是个啥都行

[Dading @web3_dading]

Meme在pump之前确实存在社区文化，有一部分holder是真心喜欢，类似原始nft早期圈子。一直有声浪，但是不是主要话语权
市场是现实的，很有意思的时间点发生在eth etf，cz进去时候。山寨不演了后pump逐步吸引了注意力，强造所谓叙事。绝大部分散户pump也是亏很惨，包括pump之前玩meme的玩家。只有很少部分是靠流动性规则赚的，和审美也没关系

[Dading @web3_dading]

如果是几年前，对你很多的观点很认同。这几年见了太多散户因为相信亏的倾家荡产，实在对项目方理想起不来任何同理心
如果你研究过pump形成应该知道，pump起势就是山寨二级完全不演时候的开始，流动性自然做出的选择。同时meme在pump之前很多也是社区建设驱动逐步形成，pump之后大部分演化成博弈诈骗，流动性实际上和审美也没关系，只是有个相对信服的角度吸引市场流动性。。实际上就是之前降低了资金接盘与参与上限的老山寨

[Dading @web3_dading]

@sixsixjay 这就是负和博弈必然。。山寨项目一个个换壳子掏，讲了太多概念故事，每次最后都一样。同时还有个问题，哪怕就是真实驱动故事，年轻人喜欢的投资主体也会随着时间社会结构发生变化，并不一定都是对的都能行

[Dading @web3_dading]

@sixsixjay 但是为什么meme周期会这样？
二级项目没有人进场是为了想做空，但是散户99%怎么分析怎么买都是赔的。。。而且太容易一把亏个大的。meme之前起码给了一些散户看得到的希望

[Dading @web3_dading]

@sixsixjay 就是这些所谓体面的按照流动性规律一遍又一遍的把韭菜割的都不够了，倒逼市场做出的选择啊
因果关系根子本来就在这些假大空项目方

[Dading @web3_dading]

@diamondhandjs @pidstat 没有多少人能赚的多了后还能保持初心，人越来越多后达成共识也越来越难

[Dading @web3_dading]

@pidstat @diamondhandjs 那是没经历过aave持续两年一点点涨k倍时候。。ai是趋势，代表现在这些ai就一定是后面趋势吗？世纪初互联网和现在互联网一样吗